BC: Spr; FMS; D-Mile (PP's/Odds)

Kasept · #1 10-16-2007, 02:51 PM

Dirt Mile

10th (5:35) Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile S.

1 Mile 70 Yards | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Discreet Cat Gomez G K bin Suroor Saeed 126 L 2-1
2 2 Lewis Michael Talamo J Catalano Wayne M 126 LA 6-1
3 3 Wanderin Boy Castellano J J Zito Nicholas P 126 L 8-1
4 4 Forefathers Hill C Mott William I 122 LA 20-1
5 5 High Finance Velazquez J R Violette, Jr. R A 126 LA 5-1
6 6 Gottcha Gold Lopez C C Plesa Edward Jr 126 L 8-1
7 7 Park Avenue Ball Bravo J Ryerson James T 126 LA 15-1
8 8 Corinthian Desormeaux K J Jerkens James A 126 L 7-2
9 9 Xchanger Dominguez R A Shuman Mark 122 LA 6-1

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Special Daily Double (Race 3) Dirt Mile / Turf Mile

Filly & Mare Sprint

8th (4:25) Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint S.

6 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Miss Macy Sue Razo E Jr Von Hemel Kelly 123 LA 6-1
2 2 Miraculous Miss Rose J Klesaris Steve 123 LA 15-1
3 3 Dream Rush Coa E M Violette, Jr. R A 120 LA 2-1
4 4 Maryfield Trujillo E O'Neill Doug 123 LA 15-1
5 5 Jazzy (ARG) Flores D R Hennig Mark 123 LA 20-1
6 6 Oprah Winney Gomez G K Dutrow, Jr. R E 123 L 6-1
7 7 La Traviata Leparoux J R Parisel Francois 120 L 5-2
8 8 Wild Gams Dominguez R A Perkins Ben W Jr 123 LA 10-1
9 9 Shaggy Mane Velasquez C Chatlos Donald Jr 123 L 12-1
10 10 Baroness Thatcher Desormeaux K J Parisel Francois 120 L 12-1

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) Special Daily Double (Race 1) FM Sprint / Sprint

Sprint

7th (2:35) TVG Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1)

6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Smokey Stover Gryder A T Gilchrist Greg 126 L 7-2
2 2 Midnight Lute Gomez G K Baffert Bob 126 LA 2-1
X X Attila's Storm SCR
4 4 Talent Search Fogelsonger R Shuman Mark 126 LA 15-1
5 5 Kelly's Landing Dettori L Kenneally Eddie 126 LA 20-1
6 6 Commentator Bravo J Zito Nicholas P 126 L 12-1
7 7 Idiot Proof Flores D R Sise Clifford Jr 123 L 10-1
8 8 Benny the Bull Guidry M Dutrow, Jr. R E 126 L 6-1
9 9 Bordonaro Migliore R Spawr Bill 126 LA 15-1
10 10 Greg's Gold Espinoza V Hofmans David 126 LA 9-2
11 11 Forefathers Desormeaux K J Mott William I 123 LA 20-1

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)

Kasept · #2 10-16-2007, 11:09 PM

No Surf Cat in the Dirt Mile.. or anywhere else.

Kasept · #3 10-16-2007, 11:10 PM

La Traviata has cross-entered in the SPR and F&M SPR with the Saturday event as first preference...

Cannon Shell · #4 10-16-2007, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

No Surf Cat in the Dirt Mile.. or anywhere else.

stunning..

blackthroatedwind · #5 10-16-2007, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

stunning..

Headley only prefers surfaces his horses don't like....apparently.

Zaf · #6 10-16-2007, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

No Surf Cat in the Dirt Mile.. or anywhere else.

He's done enough.

cakes44 · #7 10-17-2007, 07:20 AM

I think Surf Cat has run 3 races already this year. That is about his max.

NoChanceToDance · #8 10-17-2007, 01:13 PM

Smokey Stover in the sprint.

AeWingnut · #9 10-17-2007, 01:31 PM

whoever gets Corey Nakatani

Scav · #10 10-17-2007, 09:50 PM

I think I just saw the largest TG number ever. Midnight Lute with a -7 in his last race, what a monsterous performance

ArlJim78 · #11 10-17-2007, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I think I just saw the largest TG number ever. Midnight Lute with a -7 in his last race, what a monsterous performance

i guess he is a bounce candidate then?

Scav · #12 10-17-2007, 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i guess he is a bounce candidate then?

I don't know, Byk was mentioning something today how he is a huge horse and they have problems over the track. That last race impressed me the day I watched it, there is something about cali sprinters that drive me nuts. But yeah, he should be a bounce candiate because that is such a huge improvement.

Cannon Shell · #13 10-17-2007, 11:01 PM

How long until we see a -10? The scale is out of hand...

Scav · #14 10-17-2007, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How long until we see a -10? The scale is out of hand...

He scaled back all numbers last year I think so that 7 would have been a 10 if he didn't scale it back. Horses are getting faster though.

Scav · #15 10-17-2007, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Horses don't bounce. Especially off of a 2 month layoff.

So your saying that a huge effort doesn't effect horses?

Cannon Shell · #16 10-17-2007, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

He scaled back all numbers last year I think so that 7 would have been a 10 if he didn't scale it back. Horses are getting faster though.

not that much...

Scav · #17 10-17-2007, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

not that much...

Personally, I like his numbers, ALOT. They have made me a better handicapper, just not recently. I do think that some numbers, especially the ones with 4w4w built in can be a little high but I go with them. If anything, they help me eliminate a horse like Tiago, which without TG's is a horse I would 'toss' in but because of TG's I am able to confidently eliminate him, he beats me, he beats me but I doubt it.

Scav · #18 10-17-2007, 11:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am sure it happens sometimes, I just think it happens more infrequent than sheet users think. I feel like the "bounce" is just another excuse. The horse ran 2 months ago. How much could he be effected now? He's certainly well rested. If he gets beat, it will be because he is not good enough that day. Not because he ran a big race 8 weeks ago.

The horse is gigantic and because of this has problems with the gate and getting out of the gate. He breaks a step slow in a full field, he's probably done. That wouldn't be bouncing, it's racing luck, trip, pace, etc.

I agree that the bounce is overused. Maybe I should use regression instead because no one uses it. But regression is a VERY REAL thing when its comes to patterns, and figuring them out can help you play against a 4/5 horse that looks like he can't lose or toss a 'hot' horse because of his last couple.

Gauchos0522 · #19 10-17-2007, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am sure it happens sometimes, I just think it happens more infrequent than sheet users think. I feel like the "bounce" is just another excuse. The horse ran 2 months ago. How much could he be effected now? He's certainly well rested. If he gets beat, it will be because he is not good enough that day. Not because he ran a big race 8 weeks ago.

The horse is gigantic and because of this has problems with the gate and getting out of the gate. He breaks a step slow in a full field, he's probably done. That wouldn't be bouncing, it's racing luck, trip, pace, etc.

Couldn't agree more. I've seen more "bounces" happen due to those 2 especially the latter that I find it hard to believe a horse coming off two months rest to be a canidate to run badly because of that previous effort.

Cannon Shell · #20 10-17-2007, 11:36 PM

I asked a guy who uses sheets to claim horses a question last fall when outside horses were winning everything at Keeneland (you couldnt be too wide). What about all the ground lost in these poly races where the inside is horrible and the horses will be getting numbers higher than they should because of the way the track plays? He laughed and said turn the sheet upside down on the poly.