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#1
12-09-2007, 09:55 AM
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12/9: AQU ($51k Carryover)
Tried a couple of spot plays Saturday and came away with unsatisfying 3rds from Isipingo (Native Diver) and Magic Sunset (LA Champions 11th) while Lavaliere (IL Deb) ran poorly. Wasn't very interested in full Aqueduct card Sunday besides the intriguing Damon Runyon Stake, but carryover and a few potentially live runners piqued the handicapping juices. Struggling for focus and consistancy at the windows last month, but need to work through the travails...
AQUEDUCT 4th: NYB-MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, Super) Value: #10 SCR Likely: #7 Tough Negotiations 4-1: Improves post and adds "L".. Next: #11 Avagardo 5-1 Super: #4 Crafty J.C. 8-1 5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, GS) Value: #2 Gift of Valor 12-1: Nosed for less last; In light under Jermaine.. Likely: #7 Fregatta 9-5: Kinsman red should like 2 turn mile.. Next: #6 Quick and Easy 5-1 Other: #1 Collect the Purse 10-1 6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, DD) Value: #1e Karakorum entry 8-1: J. Jerkens side of entry debuts.. Likely: #8 Sweet Bama Breeze 8-5: Has just missed thrice including stake try last.. Next: #7 Love Co 4-1: Contessa grey goes 2nd out; Gets Ramon.. 7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3 Super) Value: #9 Life of Dancer 8-1: Terranova takeover for IEAH adds blinks.. Likely: #6 Mass Charles 5-2: A little too obvious on monster drop.. Next: #2 Stay Inside 6-1: Arboleda 3 of 4 for Dutrow.. Super: (AE) #13 SCR 8th: Damon Runyon S., NYB-2yo, 8.5f (DD) Small group but a wonderfully compelling race.. Strong pace expected and someone is going to blink.. Value: #2 Alexandros 10-1: Carroll rig put it together last; Gets hot pace to chase.. Likely: #1 Giant Moon 9-5: Schosberg gave time to Fried colt that should love added distance.. Next: #4 Spanky Fischbein 2-1: Pletcher Hook/Ladder, also a rig, has done little wrong in 5 starts.. 9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (Super) Using 1a (POE-Dutrow) Abby Morgan in multis.. Value: #10 Vilify 8-1 Likely: #7 Lady Rizzi 4-1 Next: #5 City Spirit 6-1 Super: #3 Karakorum Sunshine 10-1 P4 play: 6: 8 7: 2-6-9 8: 1-2-4-5 9: 1-3-5-7-10 1x3x4x5 = $60 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 12-09-2007 at 11:59 AM. 
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#2
12-09-2007, 10:03 AM
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Steve,why don't you get carryovers as big as we do out here?
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#4
12-09-2007, 10:32 AM
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Because the attraction of the P6 is a Southern California thing while the NY horse player will play P3 and P4's withsome degree of zeal the difficulty of hitting P6 races does not entice the eastcoast crowd.... It has to do with the medications available in Southern California combined with the diferences in the water and frequency of earth quakes which do not occur in New York, Ky or Fla and never in Delaware. Finally Californian's are more likely to believe in Santa Claus than big city East coast horse players for obvious reasons....
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#5
12-09-2007, 10:49 AM
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We talk about that a lot on the radio, and I think the answer lies in the heritage of the bet originating at Agua Caliente, being a part of the menu earlier than on the East Coast, and earning a prominent place in the West Coast player's wagering. I think that East Coast/NY bettors see the P6 as a "big money player" wager whereas the West Coasters are happy to feed into the pool with small ticket home run swings. Andy Beyer has written regularly that guarantees of P6 pool size helped grow the popularity of the wager as well, something that the East Coast tracks eschewed upon introducing it here. It would grow the interest in it if commenced as carryovers regularly demonstrate. If you go back to that spate of crazy Cali P6 carries earlier in the year, we noticed that suddenly the NYRA P6 pool started to get $65,000-$80,000 in it where $35,000-$50,000 had been the norm. There's no doubt that P6 carryover fever from anywhere builds awareness and willingness to try the play on a more widespread basis. And without being provincial, I think the way we concentrate on them and discus them here has a positive effect on interest in the Sextet as a regular part of people's play.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
12-09-2007, 11:24 AM
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#8
12-09-2007, 11:53 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#10
12-09-2007, 12:02 PM
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Ever see a track condition listed as "fr" (frozen)? I cannot recall having ever seen that..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#11
12-09-2007, 12:06 PM
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I am about 10 miles from AQU and it's just cloudy and cool. About 40 degrees. Maybe they are getting some "ice pellets" on track. But I wouldn't expect a frozen tundra or anything today...
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#12
12-09-2007, 12:09 PM
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And how about 2 ridglings in the same 5 horse field in the Runyon?
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#13
12-09-2007, 12:12 PM
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You might want to reevaluate picking your friend's slow horse in the 8th now that the scratch has changed the pace scenerio.
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#14
12-09-2007, 12:27 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#15
12-09-2007, 12:29 PM
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True, considering the trip he got last time he might actually be slower. Regardless, he's the fourth likeliest winner in a field of five.
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#16
12-09-2007, 12:30 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#17
12-09-2007, 12:35 PM
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I think Barcola is the biggest piece of garbage on the planet.....and you know that. The horse on the rail had no shot whatsoever. I don't bet horses like Hunting who are favorites after winning with perfect trips at 9-1 and I realized that my original choice, Marital Asset, was the moron pick of the day when I saw everyone liked him. Now, did that mean I would bet Evening Attire? No, but I didn't bet the race but he was certainly one of three horses that could win. How was he even remotely comparable to the slow horse you have put on top in today's feature?
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#18
12-09-2007, 12:42 PM
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And you know, I enjoy it much more when you call and ridicule me live...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#19
12-09-2007, 12:48 PM
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God... I love the entertaiment value that is offered here..
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#20
12-09-2007, 12:49 PM
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And I doubt he will be value....or is even worth mentioning.
Value means his odds are higher than his actual chances of winning. What price do you think he will be and what do you think are his actual chances of winning? Look, I understand wanting to make him, especially before the scratches. However, considering the Dutrow horse will get a similar set-up, and is dramatically faster ( no to mention he was against the grain last time ), it is hard to like Alexandros. The problem with him is that he has run reasonably similar races in every start and none are even remotely close to the top three contenders. Now, he may be more likely to want distance and two turns than those three, but it is hard to believe that is enough to close the gap on all three. Now, if I really want to be technical, I would point out that this is a Pick-6 analysis thread. Pick-6s are about finding the way to spend your money in the best manner to survive each race. It is not the place to be overly concerned with " value " selections.....if particularly concerned at all.
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