TAMPA Day 2 Quick obs /comments/thoughts R1 -R6

[Rudeboyelvis]

Don't know how often I will regularly I'll get an opportunity to post this, but with the break on Sunday had the chance to go through the first 6 races for Tuesday and compile some quick (and usually faulty )analysis. Thought this would be a good thread for folks that follow Tam to add their thoughts as well. Odds posted are DRF graded entries; no m/l as of yet. I'll hopefully get to the late P4 sometime tomorrow-

Races 7 - 10 added

Race 1 Clm 5000N2Y 3yo-up 6.5F

Tough to find a consistent enough pace scenario here to set up 11 Grand Lucenci’s 4-1 bid – 8 Just Add Rum 5-1 is 6-2-2-0 over the Tampa track, but off since Sept 16 where he fell well off form suggests a conditioning start. Going to throw the last two off pace starts for the 10 Rough Seas 12-1 out as over the PID taffeta to provide a bit of pressure early inside the 11 and assume 1 Brassie Prince 5-2 will duplicate last effort coming out firing. Believe this all sets the field up for my 2 top picks in this race: 6 Goldstormin’ 8-1 and the 5 Fireburin 5-1., with the 1,8,11 under in exotics

Race 2 Clm 8000 N2L 3yo-up 1 1/16 mi

6 Downtown Victory 5-1 – John Bourke with back-to-back Hoosier invaders from owner/trainer Gary Patrick takes a slight drop and stretch – top pick. 4 Radiant Reign 7-2 appears to have the firepower to make things interesting…Expect 7 Chinanote 5-2, Tom Proctor’s first entry of the meet to get involved as well (won at this level here in April going 6f)

Race 3 Md Sp Wt 20K 6F

9 Fly To Tampa 6-1 Just missed graduation by ¾ a length last out in her 2nd start and while the work tab since arriving in Tampa may suggest she prefers a different surface, Miguel Feliciano is more than capable of getting this gal to fire (21% 2yo’s; 22% msw) 8 Aqua Azul 8-1 missed by a length and a quarter 2 back for 32k; back in msw company with a nice 3f tightener on 12/4 suggests she’s primed. 4 Killarny Township 5-2 hasn’t really shown any desire to do much, so the hope here is that the bullet (1/47) work over the Tampa track has sparked a renewed interest. 5 Camelots Mystique 10-1 Owner/Breeder/Trainer and Tampa fav Lynne Scace brings this NY miss by Tomorrow’s Cat – nice gate work on (10of 24) on 11/29 and can never be counted out.
6 Invisible Decision 4-1 – I don’t buy it – toss for me.

Race 4 Clm 10K N3L 3yo-up F&M 6F

1 Awesome Illusion 4-1 – Only one start since leaving here last spring, a successful bid @12.5K.. dropping down to 10 and a consistent tab (Scace doesn’t typically work them heavy in the mornings) and a 5-1-1-1 record at Tam makes my top pick. 7 Whisper a Tune 10-1 ships in from Steve Klesaris’ Del Park barn for the meet… Drop and cutback; a nice angle, and the 1:16.1 6f breeze suggests that whatever the problem on 11/11 was, has been remedied. Definite fit here and should be a great value (north of 12-1) 6 Chubby 7-2 A nice mdn win here last spring over a good track and won at this level in Oct… XOXO form cycle; certainly could be rounded into.
2 Personal Style 2-1 Crc shipper from the Kirk Zaidie barn raced 11 days prior with a dull effort and result and looks to be in a bit over his head here – Hard to count Zaidie out, but this is a pass for me at what should eventually be a sick post time underlay. No Thanks.

Race 5 Md Sp Wt 20 2yo 1 mi Turf

At first glance, it’s tough to look at anything past 5 El Grande Tony 2-1, but considering these are maidens and there are some nicely bred firsters here, some opportunity for value in the midst. 4 It’s a Rap 8-1 was beat up like a pinball at the break in his first start and never got his legs back under him in time to threat… Johannesburg / Stop the Music mare; nothing but bullets in the AM including a 1:05 5f from the gate, and a 30% 2nd start trainer – no brainer. 2 Iron ID 4-1, Victory Gallop / Deputy Minister mare has a nice work tab coming in; may be in a bit deep here, but again, maidens. 6 Fearless Friend 15-1 has 2 published bullet works including a 1:04 from the gate and a trainer with a 13.55 ROI first time 2yos. On the AE front – two to get an eye on – 11 Babo 15-1 (Langfuhr/Forty Niner mare) sure seems to have this race in his bloodline. Michael Matz’s 14 Hollywoodland 5-1 draws a miserable post, and Theatrical isn’t particularly known for his 2yo’s but gotta respect the connections.

R6 Alw N1X 2yo Fillies 6F $20,200

Steinbrenner’s obvious single here in the rolling P3 8 Unfolding Wish 2-1 embarrassed the field at Haw first out getting the 6 in 1:10.1 going away by 8+ lengths and earning a bsf almost 20 points higher than any other entrant here. Underneath considerations - 2 Phyls Girl 8-1 seeing a 1 turn 6f for the first time lol…4 This Smoke Did It 6-1 - Hoo shipper never off the board in 4 starts (4-1-1-2);
5 Rachele R’s Queen 6-1 - Jamie Ness’ (leading trainer here last year) gets a fresh Haw shipper that been working well here in the AM, draws Centeno…Miguel Feliciano’s 10 Pyrite Marci 4-1 renders a serious glance as well – he’s a master with the babies

Race 7 Md Sp Wt 20k 2yo 7F

7 Ohio’s Way 10-1 – On the doorstep 3 of 4 starts; 2nd to Prince Cortez on 10/28 who won here at first asking against winners on Saturday; Feliciano/Gonzalez 24%. 1 Delaware Diamond 6-1 missing against better @crc though 5 for 5 ITM; modest work tab, speed from the rail and may be a notch above the rest here. 8 Let it Rock 5-1 solid efforts coming in; draws Cotto; if he can get away from the gate should be in the mix 10 Preachin Heart 4-1 just missed 3 back; disappointed on return as p/t fav victim of a wide trip last 2; Draws Centeno who knows his way around here


Race 8 OC32k/N2X F&M 3yo&up 7F

3 Champagne Party 5-1 Change of barns has worked wonders for this Outflanker filly who has amassed a 5-4-1-0 record since the claim; dropping back down for the tag here and the stretch out should be ready to pounce despite the uninspiring work tab. Trainer- 67% when won last (9 horse sample); 42% dirt 4.00 ROI (24 horse sample); 35% clm…8 Dealofthecentury 10-1 excelled @ 7F last time she ran the distance over the Tam track- career top bsf, relishes the distance, draws Centeno gotta use 2 Princess Anna Lei 12-1 Ran career best in a winning bid at this level last meeting going 6 ½ drawing off –extra ½ panel no concern; Gonzalez gets her moving early will be tough in this spot 5 Native Dress 7-2 In form CT shipper off a career best effort against N3X company on 10/27, freshened since and well connected draws Velez.
4 Two Spot Club 5-2 Tim Richey’s first entry of the meet shipped in from Lrl and posted a well regarded work on 12/4. Richey is 21% when won last and will draw a lot of attention at the windows, rightfully so, but looks beatable

Race9 ALW 20200 N1X 3yo&up 1 1/16th mi Turf

2 Johns Song 5-2 Unforgivable ride by R. Maragh last out kept the p/t fave from scoring 2 in a row and 5 of last 6 must respect 6 Massaoit 8-1 Kinsman/Centano trbl line 2 back rallied for place looks to be class of field 8 Storm Squall 6-1 Wexler’s Storm Boot colt has found a home on the lawn – Pecoraro will have this guy ready on game day. AE watch – 13 Jansdream 5-1 Cotto familiar with this one posting his two top career bsf’s aboard; 2 bullets in the am, must use if draws in

Race 10 Clm6250 3yo&up 6F

10 Little Paper Boat 5-1 well placed in this spot on the slight drop; bullet 36 on 11/24; impressive trainer..11 Supahbuckdancer 3-1 Suf shipper dropping down from 12.5 looks to return to early autumn form…5 Bookmaster 7-2 wide trips in last 5 of 6 starts beaten a half length when assumed the early pace for 8K 2 back; Notebook war horse sports a 36.4 breeze over the surface and an advantageous post with plenty of pace outside to get him going early