Big Brown Derby Odds off of win

jms62 · #1 03-30-2008, 09:53 AM

10-1.... Any thoughts as to overlay or underlay ?

fpsoxfan · #2 03-30-2008, 10:03 AM

Right now I think that's overlayed, but who knows?

ateamstupid · #3 03-30-2008, 10:03 AM

Where are these odds? That seems like a pretty big overlay. You'll be lucky if you get half that on Derby day.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #4 03-30-2008, 10:05 AM

Off that effort.....underlay no doubt. If War Pass comes up a clunker next week, Big Brown will be 2-1 or less.

jms62 · #5 03-30-2008, 10:08 AM

Update

The number is on Bodog BUT I just noticed that the wager was closed so it probably was prior to yesterdays race... I'll repost when it opens but my thoughts are 4-1 or less

jms62 · #6 03-30-2008, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Off that effort.....underlay no doubt. If War Pass comes up a clunker next week, Big Brown will be 2-1 or less.

War Pass will probably come up HUGE next week ala Bellamy Road and set the table for heartbreak derby day.

fpsoxfan · #7 03-30-2008, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

War Pass will probably come up HUGE next week ala Bellamy Road and set the table for heartbreak derby day.

You make a good point here. A super effort in the Wood could make for an interesting odds scenario going into the Derby.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #8 03-30-2008, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

You make a good point here. A super effort in the Wood could make for an interesting odds scenario going into the Derby.

Like I said...the War Pass vs. Big Brown showdown in the Derby, I'm looking forward to.....setting things up for someone like.......
Georgie Boy ???

Cajungator26 · #9 03-30-2008, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Like I said...the War Pass vs. Big Brown showdown in the Derby, I'm looking forward to.....setting things up for someone like.......
Georgie Boy ???

Georgie Boy? I doubt it.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #10 03-30-2008, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Georgie Boy? I doubt it.

Good as any in this group, fun to root for a horse with pedigree like that.

Scav · #11 03-30-2008, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

10-1.... Any thoughts as to overlay or underlay ?

At 10/1 I would even play the horse....

Try more like 4/1 favorite, especially becuase they will connect him to the "Barbaro route"

2Hot4TV · #12 03-30-2008, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Good as any in this group, fun to root for a horse with pedigree like that.

106 beyer for Big Brown,,, that makes him that favorite in the Derby.

Pincay thinks Big Brown is the next Bellamy Road.

2Hot4TV · #13 03-30-2008, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Georgie Boy? I doubt it.

I don't see anything exciting on the west coast.

Cajungator26 · #14 03-30-2008, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Good as any in this group, fun to root for a horse with pedigree like that.

I'll be rooting for a horse in the Derby as well, but that doesn't mean I think he can actually win it. Hint hint:

All kidding aside, I didn't care for Georgie's last race when he didn't switch leads. If he fails to do that in the Derby, he'll have a hard time winning... running on the wrong lead like that can make a horse tired and that would be the last thing he needs in a 10 panel race. JMO of course.

brockguy · #15 03-30-2008, 11:15 AM

just to say big brown is 3-1 fav now over here for the ky derby after last night..

zippyneedsawin · #16 03-30-2008, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Underlay? How so?

I think clunker or not by War Pass and Big Brown will be a significant favorite, assuming he makes the race. I'm thinking 5-2 or less.

That sounds about right.

Danzig · #17 03-30-2008, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

War Pass will probably come up HUGE next week ala Bellamy Road and set the table for heartbreak derby day.

funny you say that, since i was thinking big brown was this years bellamy road!

Danzig · #18 03-30-2008, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

106 beyer for Big Brown,,, that makes him that favorite in the Derby.

Pincay thinks Big Brown is the next Bellamy Road.

isn't anyone concerned about big browns stretch run? he seems to want to run all over the thing. come derby day, something like that can get you killed.

Ogygian · #19 03-30-2008, 11:51 AM

The performance was impressive, especially all the hype regarding the poor post. Elysium Fields was very disappointing, Tomcito ran a decent race off a lay off and Steve predicted a good run from Smooth Air.Lets see what happens after the Wood and which War Pass shows up, I could see a speed duel in the derby setting up nicely for El Gato Malo or Court Vision.

slotdirt · #20 03-30-2008, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

isn't anyone concerned about big browns stretch run? he seems to want to run all over the thing. come derby day, something like that can get you killed.

I like how the horse couldn't make up his mind between the rail and the ambulance path.