Monba?

Hawthornechris · #1 04-13-2008, 09:30 AM

Does Monba now get some Derby love? Thanks to Steve for having Lauren Stitch on regulary--she talked up Monba in December or January as a horse to watch, based on breeding and a couple early wins at CD and Keeneland. I was beginning to wonder about this horse but he redeemed himself and restored my faith in him yesterday. I was thinking my KY Derby future bet on him was a waste but i'm a bit more optimistic--not confident but that's one of the rewarding and entertaining things about KY futures..you get to pick a horse and follow it thru the rigors of the preps and the ups and downs...looking forward to May 3rd a little bit more now.

chris

SniperSB23 · #2 04-13-2008, 11:01 AM

He will be the single worst play in the entire race as the winner of the Blue Grass almost always is.

jcs11204 · #3 04-13-2008, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He will be the single worst play in the entire race as the winner of the Blue Grass almost always is.

local owner

jcs11204 · #4 04-13-2008, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

One of his owners is local, who cares?

don L.... i am sure you knew that.. why be a fool

SniperSB23 · #5 04-13-2008, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204

don L.... i am sure you knew that.. why be a fool

So you are saying I should bet the horse that I just said would be the single worst play in the entire Derby cause there is a local owner?

jcs11204 · #6 04-13-2008, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So you are saying I should bet the horse that I just said would be the single worst play in the entire Derby cause there is a local owner?

lol no
i just was pointing it out.
dam

Hawthornechris · #7 04-13-2008, 02:04 PM

I'm not the experienced horse player all of you are, but it seems to be that this crop of three-year olds are a bit unpredictable no? With no one dominating horse emerging, this derby looks more wide open than most previous iterations so I would think it might behoove a bettor to be a bit more open minded about those previous sacrosanct derby qualifiers...could Monba lose the derby? absolutely...and he could lose big too...but I think I could say that about a lot of these horses....this just makes it more fun to me.

SniperSB23 · #8 04-13-2008, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hawthornechris

I'm not the experienced horse player all of you are, but it seems to be that this crop of three-year olds are a bit unpredictable no? With no one dominating horse emerging, this derby looks more wide open than most previous iterations so I would think it might behoove a bettor to be a bit more open minded about those previous sacrosanct derby qualifiers...could Monba lose the derby? absolutely...and he could lose big too...but I think I could say that about a lot of these horses....this just makes it more fun to me.

You are right that anything can happen in this Derby. The problem though is Monba is now assured of being overbet relative to his miniscule chances so is a bad play.

jcs11204 · #9 04-13-2008, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You are right that anything can happen in this Derby. The problem though is Monba is now assured of being overbet relative to his miniscule chances so is a bad play.

bad play ? i doubt he will be overbet... coming into the year he was top 5 on most ppl's lists. he got banged up badly in the FOY. He won yeterday, and already has run big at churchill, so what is overbet in your opinion ? i think around 10 or 15-1 is correct.

SniperSB23 · #10 04-13-2008, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204

bad play ? i doubt he will be overbet... coming into the year he was top 5 on most ppl's lists. he got banged up badly in the FOY. He won yeterday, and already has run big at churchill, so what is overbet in your opinion ? i think around 10 or 15-1 is correct.

I would think 40-1 would be about right so you'd need 50-1 or so to get value. I'm not even sure if this horse could beat Anak Nakal on dirt.

wac · #11 04-14-2008, 12:58 AM

I guess it depends on what you him in the future bet. I unfortunatly have him in the 1st bet at 19-1 while he closed in the 2nd at like 36-1 i think?? If any of the horses i have future bets are in the derby i doubt they will be higher then they were when i made the bet. i only did 1st pool and put money on dennis of cork, monba, colonel john and zhumor. I feel that if those 4 are in the gate for KD they are gonna be higher odds so i wont put any money on them to win thats for sure.Although zhumor will be pretty high i think his closing price was 47-1 and now that i think about it he may be higher then that derby day. the other 3 i think they will be lower.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #12 04-14-2008, 09:19 AM

Saturday was the day to make money with him, his good poly form and the price (although it was split in half from the morning line for various reasons) got him also at 19-1 in pool#1. I'll most likely go off in the range or a little higher. Doubt he'll be over 30-1 because of Pletcher & the Bluegrass victory. Most likely will use him in the gimmicks.....maybe he'll be another Invisible Ink.

Hawthornechris · #13 04-14-2008, 10:58 AM

I'm glad I had enough faith in Monba to cash a ticket on him on Saturday...I do have in the first future pool at 16 to 1 or somewhere around there...I think we could have four or five horses all go off at 5 or 6 to 1 with no clear favorite...could be interesting...gotta believe the exotics are gonna pay off huge if you hit