I know it's early, but who you tossing?

IrishofNDMan · #1 04-15-2008, 12:01 PM

Gayego is a sure toss for me.

what about for you guys?

sumitas · #2 04-15-2008, 12:09 PM

all of Haskins derby dozen

kgar311 · #3 04-15-2008, 12:10 PM

Court Vision

ShadowRoll · #4 04-15-2008, 12:14 PM

Too early. I tossed Bluegrass Cat based on the dud he ran in his last prep. But when he showed up at CD, he looked and acted like a million dollars during his last few works. If I recall correctly, the Barbaro/BC exacta (which I didn't play, even though all my tickets had Barbaro on top), payed more than $500.

cakes44 · #5 04-15-2008, 12:14 PM

See thread below titled "Official Derby Top 5" for my tosses.

sumitas · #6 04-15-2008, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Too early. I tossed Bluegrass Cat based on the dud he ran in his last prep. But when he showed up at CD, he looked and acted like a million dollars during his last few works. If I recall correctly, the Barbaro/BC exacta (which I didn't play, even though all my tickets had Barbaro on top), payed more than $500.

add another 0 to that exacta and you have a clue how i think the race may end up.

philcski · #7 04-15-2008, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Too early. I tossed Bluegrass Cat based on the dud he ran in his last prep. But when he showed up at CD, he looked and acted like a million dollars during his last few works. If I recall correctly, the Barbaro/BC exacta (which I didn't play, even though all my tickets had Barbaro on top), payed more than $500.

was just shy of $600 for $2... i had it 10 times (no joke) and didn't have to pay taxes. That oaks/derby was the best two days i've ever had.

slotdirt · #8 04-15-2008, 12:29 PM

Recapturetheglory immediately comes to mind...

lemoncrush · #9 04-15-2008, 12:40 PM

Any horse with a "Z" in the beggining of his name.
Followed by Gayego, Bob Black Jack, War Pass and Big Truck.

King Glorious · #10 04-15-2008, 12:42 PM

Without mentioning all of the obvious ones that everyone would put in their bottom 10, looking at only those that might be in the 12-1 or under range, I'd go with Pyro. I've never liked him and he's not done anything to make me like him this year. I feel that he's regressed from his 2yo form and his last race was not the way one would want to be going into the Derby. He's had three races but I don't think he's raced three times. I feel like he's going to come up short on Derby Day. I do give him credit as a good horse, better than I believed he was and I now believe that come the second half of the year, he's going to be a force to be reckoned with. But I don't like him here and especially not at price relative to chances.

AeWingnut · #11 04-15-2008, 01:03 PM

whoever Point Given is betting

MisterB · #12 04-15-2008, 01:22 PM

All the odd numbers

brianwspencer · #13 04-15-2008, 01:26 PM

Cool Coal Man. Not a fan.

slotdirt · #14 04-15-2008, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Cool Coal Man. Not a fan.

A good handicapping friend of mine made the point to me today that at least Street Sense found a way to be competitive in the Blue Grass last year, unlike the trio of erstwhile Derby contenders who clunked their way home the other day. Plus, horses like Zanjero and even Teufelsberger who both ran well that day ended up having pretty good overall 3YO years while horses like Great Hunter who had high hopes but stunk in last year's Blue Grass actually ended up being a bum anyway.

He might have a point.

jpops757 · #15 04-15-2008, 01:41 PM

War Pass is my toss but I think he will probably have the most influence on who does win I wouldnt leave him out of the bottom of ex,tris or suppers.

Thunder Gulch · #16 04-15-2008, 01:46 PM

Toss to win, or toss to hit the board and fill the trifecta? I only have a few under consideration for top honors, while at least half the field has some reasonable shot of hitting the trifecta.

Dunbar · #17 04-15-2008, 02:01 PM

Why the lack of respect for Gayego? I notice he didn't make kasept's top 10 either.

I liked his Ark Derby quite a bit. He showed he could run on dirt and he showed he did not need the lead. He finished strong enough in his 2nd try at a route to make me think he's got a good shot at stretching it to 10 furlongs. I seem to be in a minority, though.

--Dunbar

MaTH716 · #18 04-15-2008, 02:12 PM

Cowboy Cal, surface issues, plus he is another horse that I think will be cooked being near a very fast pace.

cakes44 · #19 04-15-2008, 02:12 PM

I'm not sure if Gayego is going to make it 10 furlongs, but my $10 on him at 112/1 will have me rooting the heck out of him.

cal828 · #20 04-15-2008, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Why the lack of respect for Gayego? I notice he didn't make kasept's top 10 either.

I liked his Ark Derby quite a bit. He showed he could run on dirt and he showed he did not need the lead. He finished strong enough in his 2nd try at a route to make me think he's got a good shot at stretching it to 10 furlongs. I seem to be in a minority, though.

--Dunbar

Gayego is one that a lot of people seem to want to toss. I imagine because they think he will either be making the pace or sitting too close to it, but with 20 horses in the field, I expect a lot of horses will be taken out of their game plan. Gayego seems like one that could be a closer, if he had to be. I think he was one before his last 2 races and if you believe his beyer for his last race, then it seems like he might have more speed than all but two or three horses in the race and who knows how that 2 or 3 will fare? At this point, it seems foolish to me to leave him completely off my tickets. I admit though, I am prone to envisioning scenarios that usually don't happen and this is probably one of them.