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#1
05-26-2008, 09:34 AM
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5/26: Belmont (Met Mile; $239k C/O)
Was a good day Sunday with some exotic scores and P3 hits widely available and giving the Belmont one-day carryover a real go (4 of 6). The unfortunate part of the $240 play was that pushing the all button in the Vagrancy caught Lansdon Robbins' Looky Yonder ($21.60), which was the horse that tripped Monday's double carryover.
Sixth race single Heather's Angel was 4th and never challenged, and in the meantime, 'Best Value' 2nd choice Lost Without You was ridden brilliantly by Channing Hill to score at nearly $30. 8th race single Can't Refuse was second to my 'Next Best' third choice Russian Sage, but combined with 'Exotics Add' Posted, keyed a $520 trifecta ($1) that covered all of the day's plays and then some. The nightcap superfecta hit with the easy top three and 37-1 'Exotics Add' Dance Lesson returned $386.50. NOTE: Met Mile Day double carryover P6 looks impossible... as I found this sextet very hard to read with few serious opinions fulminating as I handicapped. Hope that scratches help, or I may stick to P3's and the late P4... Remember those that served...  BELMONT PARK 6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Pretty Dinner 6-1 10th Best Value: #9 Devi 8-1 3rd Next Best: #4 I'llthinkofsumthin 5-1 2nd Exotics Add: #10 Divorce Court 9-2 WON $1 Exacta (10-4) Paid $28.75 $1 Trifecta (10-4-9) Paid $111.00 7th: NYB-ALW/N11X, 3+, 6f-T (G/S, P3, Super) Most Likely: #5 Beneath the Crown 3-1 2nd Best Value: #7 Victorious Affair 8-1 9th Next Best: #1 Karakorum Tornado 15-1 3rd Exotics Add: #11 SCR 8th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3) Most Likely: #1 Marl 4-1 4th Best Value: #7 Royal Lord 8-1 Next Best: #2 Les Antiques 5-2 2nd Exotics Add: #5 Colonial Kid 3-1 WON 9th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (P3) Most Likely: #3 Admiral Bird 3-1 3rd Best Value: #1 Tsunamic 12-1 5th Next Best: #5 Solid Strike 7-2 8th Exotics Add: #8 Continental Reins 6-1 4th 10th: 115th Metropolitan H. (Gr. I), 3+, 1m (DD) Most Likely: #8 Commentator 6-5 2nd Next Best: #4 Divine Park 5-2 WON Best Value: #1a (POE) Premium Wine 8-1 Exotics Add: #5 First Defense 5-1 NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super) Most Likely: #3 Wicked Queen 2-1 Best Value: #10 Scarlettsobsession 15-1 Next Best: #9 Outtawesthills 9-2 Exotics Add: #5 Tame the Dice 8-1 <$400 P6 Play: 6: 1-4-9-10 7: 1-5-7 8: 1-2-5-7 9: 1-3 10: 4-8 11: 3 4x3x4x2x2x1 = 192 x $2 = $386 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-26-2008 at 05:58 PM. 
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#2
05-26-2008, 11:58 AM
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Scratches/changes
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
05-26-2008, 12:37 PM
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Did anyone else find this card borderline impossible? Too many state-breds for me. . . But at least there are a lot of turf races. . .
R4 - using 3,4,6,8 R6 - can't get past the 4 with that trainer angle - hope he doesn't get pounded because of it R7 - #6 R8 - may just play the Shug horse because of the dam R9 - #6 is an angle play for me Met Mile - go Commentator
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#4
05-26-2008, 01:13 PM
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With all the crowding on the BEL turf recently, as if the inside were golden and the place to be, nice to see a horse win one the previously TYPICAL way on the BEL turf: ON THE OUTSIDE with a clear run.
Last edited by the_fat_man : 05-26-2008 at 01:24 PM.
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#5
05-26-2008, 01:32 PM
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Race 2
7-2-9-1
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#6
05-26-2008, 05:11 PM
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Race 9
$3 P3- 1,3,4 / 4,8 / 3,9 $1 P3- 1-8, / 4,8 / 3,5 WP on Tsunamic. Why not? Price is there to be had. Best of luck everyone!!
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#7
05-26-2008, 05:45 PM
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i'm using premium wine , with commentator, divine park and lord snowden exacta box. and 1 to win .
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#10
05-26-2008, 08:04 PM
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I'm not one to typically bash riders, but that ridiculous attempt by Castellano to fit the 7/5 favorite through a hole on the rail (after checking 6 times down the backstretch), unnecessarily, cost me the pick 6. Very poor decision, if he moves wide (and as the Fat Man said, it's generally the best way to win on the Belmont turf) he wins by 2-3 in hand. If you have the best horse, and don't need help saving ground like that, why subject yourself to racing luck when a 20-1 shot nearly sends you over the rail?
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#11
05-26-2008, 08:12 PM
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yo, Phil
I wondered on another thread yesterday why Clement was riding Castellano back after Javier got the horse beat at KEE last out. He has a clear lead and the horse is tiring; and he makes the mistake of sticking him righty, rather than just coaxing him to the wire. The horse jumps back into lefty lead. But that's not enough of a clue for Castellano. He then sticks the horse lefty which gets it back on righty lead. You'd think that at this point he'd just ride it to the wire. BUT, he continues sticking lefty and the horse ducks out severely -- so even if it'd won, there'd been a DQ. Castellano is the master of HERDING in the stretch. If I didn't know better, I'd suspect that he wanted the horse to drift out. So, while I blame Morales for not giving up the rail, I also feel that Castellano deserves to get bullied for all the times he's won by herding horses out while the stewards sit on their asses and do nothing. And the end, I blame the stewards for not properly policing what is a very dangerous sport. Last edited by the_fat_man : 05-26-2008 at 09:13 PM.
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#12
05-26-2008, 09:03 PM
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Quote:
When they turned for home it looked like Castellano could of been more patient and waited for a running lane to open up outside of Certifiably Royal. He decided duck inside and try to pass on the rail and the horse looked uncomfortable passing on the rail. Once she passed Certifiably Royal she made up ground on the winner. If she would of got up to win I would of had the late pick four one of my backup tickets.
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