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#1
07-04-2009, 08:07 AM
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7/4: Belmont (P4); MTH Stakes
Got clobbered at Monmouth Friday before getting untracked at Churchill. Entire Monmouth P4 pool was taken down by one ticket to the tune of $40k after a challenging three races and $100-ish winner in the anchor. At CD, got rolling early with overlay winner of the 8th to start the late action. Hope you did OK in advance of the big holiday weekend of action. With 2 Dee Tee Stables runners in at Arlington today, I'm a bit distracted, but the 3 Belmont stakes as part of the P4 is the main wagering focus along with the intriguing stakes at MTH.
Have a wonderful, safe 4th! BELMONT PARK PRE-SCRATCHES 8th: 92nd Dwyer (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Warrior's Reward 9-5 3rd Best Value: #4 Masala 12-1 5th Next Best: #3 Kensei 6-1 WON Super Add: #6 Just Ben 2-1 6th 9th: 62nd Prioress (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1e Evans entry 3-1 WON/2nd Best Value: #2 Luster 12-1 5th Next Best: #3 Heart Ashley 4-1 6th Super Add: #8 On the Menu 6-1 7th 10th: 123rd Suburban H. (Gr. II), 3+, 10f (DD, Super) Very fun edition of this legendary event. Seems to have surprising plus pace scenario so include rallying types and prices. There are no bad plays in this wide open affair.. Most Likely: #4 Asiatic Boy 5-2 2nd Best Value: #7 Real Merchant 15-1 9th Next Best: #2 Dry Martini 6-1 WON Super Add: #10 Samhoon 20-1 10th 10th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super) Brutally tough way to end tricky sequence! 6-7, maybe 8 different runners eligible here.. Most Likely: #7 Tawaared 5-1 2nd Best Value: #5 Chapin Beach 12-1 5th Next Best: #1e Clement entry 7-5 6th/8th Super Add: #4 Evolutionist 4-1 WON <$75 P4 Play: 8: 1-3-4 9: 1-2 10: 2-4-7 11: 1-4-5-7 3x2x3x4 = $72 $2 Pick 4 (3-1-2-4) Paid $1,103.00 MONMOUTH PARK PRE-SCRATCHES 9th: 62nd Salvator Mile (Gr. III), 3+, 1m Best Value: #7 Keep Laughing 10-1 8th Most Likely: #2 Smooth Air 5-2 2nd Next Best: #5 Coal Play 4-1 WON Super Add: #4 Kiss the Kid 15-1 5th 10th: 56th United Nations (Gr. I), 3+, 11f-T Most Likely: #7 Presious Passion 9-2 WON Best Value: #2 Strike a Deal 8-1 7th Next Best: #4 Spice Route 4-1 4th Super Add: #8 Wesley 10-1 8th Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 07-04-2009 at 10:31 PM. 
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#2
07-04-2009, 10:03 AM
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The 2nd race is off the turf at Belmont and the nightcap's been moved to the inner.
Until further notice there will be at least one turf race moved to the main track each day. There's also a bird urination on the Widener scheduled for 4:00 PM EDT so the status of the 11th is still in question. NT
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#3
07-04-2009, 11:18 AM
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Quote:
 
__________________
“Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light’s winning.”–Rust Cohle – True Detective
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#4
07-04-2009, 02:28 PM
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BELMONT P4 SCR'S:
Race 11 #2B Pynaformer #9 Memorized #1A Grassy MTH STAKES SCR'S: Race 10 -- United Nations #9 Better Talk Now
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
07-04-2009, 02:31 PM
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Quote:
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#6
07-04-2009, 03:39 PM
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Belmont 6
Personal Shopper $15 wp
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#7
07-04-2009, 06:24 PM
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Nice Belmont Pk 4 Steve!
__________________
"Let the whiners and lazy cry about how impossible "they've" made it to win at this game." - Steve Byk
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#11
07-04-2009, 07:36 PM
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I made just enough on betting the Dee Tee horses that I bet Steve's pick 4 without making any "improvements."
 Thanks, Steve. If this is redboarding, it is only done to give Steve more credit for his great handicapping!
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#12
07-04-2009, 08:35 PM
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Quote:
__________________
“Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light’s winning.”–Rust Cohle – True Detective Last edited by Kasept : 07-04-2009 at 09:50 PM.
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#13
07-04-2009, 09:19 PM
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Thanks all. After the lousy Thurs and mediocre Fri, was nice to negotiate this tricky sequence. Happy to see a number of winners come along
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#15
07-04-2009, 11:53 PM
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Quote:
Too many cashed tickets stealing value from a great sequence but who can complain about a $1103 for a buck. Does anyone else have the same numbers for the parlay ? It is a striking difference in payout..
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#17
07-05-2009, 06:38 AM
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Quote:
That's very flattering, and I know at least 8 people hit it based on the thank yous here and Emails received so far, but I think the winner's prices don't reflect their P4 odds. ML on the winners were 6-1 ($14), 3-1 ($8), 6-1 ($14) and 4-1 ($10). A parlay of those is @ $1,500 and I think we can assume the Ned Evans Prioress entry was a single on many tickets and nearly a free square. The Mott winner in the nightcap was overlaid and certainly most would have included him on their P4. Kensei and Martini were a little tougher to find as winners but close enough on paper... So, I think the P4 price isn't glaringly low. The 2 that may have been impacted were the $3,600 Hollywood P4 when at least 11-12 hit it based on the mail I received, and the Prairie Meadows miscue last week where the will pays on the three I used was severely depressed in the little $17,000 pool. I had flogged the PrM on the radio and I think a lot of people bet the skien.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#19
07-05-2009, 10:44 AM
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Great hit steve, Didn't have the 4 in the last. Great hit and keep it rolling
__________________
Inveniemus viam aut faciemus
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