Please, Someone Just Shoot Me

trackrat59 · #1 06-26-2010, 08:53 PM

I decided I would play the Hollywood P4 today with the $250 added. I studied, picked some shots, and placed my bet. I went with 3x3x4x5. Then I started watching on TVG.

I felt lucky when I hit the first race.

I knew the second race would be the difficult one. I cheered when I won that one. Then I started to get really excited when I easily won the third leg of my P4. I was set going into the final race since I had 5 horses. I figured, gosh, maybe I can pay off a bill or something with the winnings. The fourth race goes off. One of my very big long shots is leading them into the final turn. The chalk comes around him to win easily.

I jumped up and down and cheered and thought..."this is my lucky day"!!! I finally hit one.

I decided to wait a while to find out what I won. You know, I was going to savor this moment. I thought, I think I'll go out to dinner and celebrate. Yeah.

So then I looked up what I won on the 'puter.

I lost about $40 and change sweating through this P4.

I'm going to go now and open up a can of soup.

MaTH716 · #2 06-26-2010, 09:02 PM

Don't feel bad, several of us hit both the early and late pick 4's last night and lost money on both of them.
$180 bucks is a lot to invest on a pick 4 ticket. Especially with the parade of chalk that has been coming in there. You have to pick your spots to play such a big ticket there. Even the last race where there is usually a huge field of cheap claimers, today seemed to look very formful on that whole sequence including the finale. You also got hurt when the favorite scratched in the 7th. Everyone ended up with the post time favorite who won going away.
If you are going to throw big numbers at the pick 4 eventually you will hit a big one, but unfortunately you will also have results like the one you had today.

my miss storm cat · #3 06-26-2010, 09:11 PM

Congrats on hitting it anyway.

The Takarazuka Kinen is tonight and while the favorites are strong I think the payouts will be huge. Some seriously nice longshots to use underneath... just in the event you want to play something tonight.

#4 06-26-2010, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Don't feel bad, several of us hit both the early and late pick 4's last night and lost money on both of them.
$180 bucks is a lot to invest on a pick 4 ticket. Especially with the parade of chalk that has been coming in there. You have to pick your spots to play such a big ticket there. Even the last race where there is usually a huge field of cheap claimers, today seemed to look very formful on that whole sequence including the finale. You also got hurt when the favorite scratched in the 7th. Everyone ended up with the post time favorite who won going away.
If you are going to throw big numbers at the pick 4 eventually you will hit a big one, but unfortunately you will also have results like the one you had today.

Yep, i was one of the ones that hit both P4 last night and lost $$$$$. Its a crazy game, but we love it.

golfer · #5 06-27-2010, 05:12 AM

I played an $18 pick 4 ticket at Monmouth yesterday that would have brought back $17, and didn't even get to cash it. So it could be worse.

Kasept · #6 06-27-2010, 07:06 AM

rat,

Take to heart what what Matt, Gioia, Dave and Seth are saying. You constructed a ticket that gave you an opportunity to score. That's what matters. Look back at the odds of one or two of the horses that were on the play and realize that had things gone differently anywhere along the line, the reward grows exponentially. I've missed two P5's at MTH in the last 9 days thanks to poor ticket construction. I had the right winners identified on both plays, but came away empty. One was chalky (Under $200) and one was substancial (Over $1,700). You survived race to race, and that's what multi-race play is about. Keep pitching...

the_fat_man · #7 06-27-2010, 09:24 AM

I think this thread goes a good way towards exposing the pick4 (or 3,5,6) as a poor bet. Perhaps it's a very good way to play if one is focusing on a single track that offers good wagering opportunities. Unfortunately, presently, there isn't a track in the US that does this consistently. Most tracks (with very few 'minor' exceptions) just don't have large enough field sizes OR consistently competitive fields. HOL this past Friday night is a good example of a card with VERY LIMITED wagering opportunities. Maybe there were a couple of one number exacta plays that were worth playing but the card overall wasn't worth staying up for.

With so many tracks running and with so many limited plays at each of them, the way to go, IMO, is identifying the races that are competitive, that offer good opportunities, at these tracks and going VERTICAL. What's a better play: working a bunch of hours to play a pick4 at a track and getting back 3:1 or losing money; or hitting a one number, cinch exacta that pays 6:1 and takes all of a few minutes to handicap? (Of course, much time needs to be spent to find these 'bettable' races.)

For those wishing to stick to the original method, might I suggest WO, where the racing is competitive (for the most part) and the fields (relatively) large.

pweizer · #8 06-27-2010, 09:44 AM

I hit the late pick four at Monmouth yesterday and got $59 back on a $60 ticket. The four races in the sequence all had large fields and all seemed competitive on paper. Yet it chalked out. That happens sometimes.

What makes the pick four a good bet is that it spreads the takeout over four races so the house edge is lower. This is especially attractive in the Monmouth Pick five which is a fifty cent bet and has a 15% take out to start.

I do agree with TFM that playing a pick four just because it is there is not smart. Playing a pick four where you can identify a shaky favorite or two can pay well above the parlay and thus is generally a good play.

Paul

timmgirvan · #9 06-27-2010, 10:21 AM

It's called a moral victory.....no guns needed

Port Conway Lane · #10 06-27-2010, 10:53 AM

New York racing offers the lowest takeout in the country on daily doubles. In the first leg of either pick 4 the bettor has probables to gauge the value of their choices.

If the ticket layout is 1,2/1,2,3/1,2,3/1,2,3 ($54) it is equivalent to six $9 daily doubles.

If you spot an overlay on any of the six daily double combinations it makes more sense to pull that particular combination(s) from the pick 4 and make a $9 DD wager. This will give you money in the bank if it comes in and the option to parlay all or some of the payoff into the 3rd and 4th legs in another daily double.

While I agree with Steve that the combinations can grow exponentially you are assured of an overlay on your daily double and in the next two legs you will again have the option to view which of your combinations offer the best value.