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#1
07-31-2010, 04:00 AM
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7/31: Saratoga (Day 8-Diana/Jim Dandy)
Managed to negotiate both big tickets successfully Friday, catching the early P4 for $316 and the late quad for $926 keyed by delightfully overlooked My Dinah ($16.20 as 7th race Best Value top choice). As anticipated, the second P4 was the sequence that had real potential, and the return was the kind you need at this session to build bankroll power. Hitting for nearly $1,000 is always welcome, but it's also important to pause and recognize that the payoff could have more than tripled had Lights Out Lisa won the 8th race photo.
The key to the multi-race score is getting yourself into position to have the chance to be rewarded for daring play. The parlay for the winning skien was $781 (with Ride On Josephine in the 8th), while the parlay with Lights Out Lisa was an estimated $2,724. You can't know that the P4 would have paid 4X more with Lights Out Lisa that it did with Ride On Josephine, but it certainly would have been at least 2-2.5 than the $926. You build the multi play looking to survive each leg, but need to evaluate races for possible outcomes that the public isn't considering. My Dinah seemed perfectly set up for a dream trip in the Fleet Indian with at least three speed horses likely to be dueling ahead of her. Indeed, that's how it played out, and her win likely knocked out a number of P4 plays. It should be mentioned too that late scratches of 9th race short number Person of Interest and Fleet Indian S. possible Wicked Diva did P4 winners a favor, as neither of the horses that those tickets received as the post time favorite won. And while those of you that won the late P4 benefitted this time, as has been discussed by Steve Crist, the rule that forces the post time favorite on players needs to be reworked to be more equitable. Hope everyone did well... Things have been going nicely, and I hope I can keep it going for you today! Big weekend ahead! SARATOGA POST-SCRATCHES 1st: NY-Fasig, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) State bred stake is largely devoid of pace factors. Can't Maragh boss this around on Akilina? Most Likely: #3 Akilina 3-1 5th Next Best: #1 Chestoria 2-1 2nd Exotics Use: #6 You Go West Girl 5-2 3rd Super Add: #5 Our Golden Dream 8-1 6th 2nd: MSW, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Curious group of maidens that have either flashed some talent or are rumored to have ability. A jump up winner here is more likely than possible. ML fave Bakhoor is being asked to do a lot stretching from three quarters to a mile and three eighths.. Most Likely: #1 Medal Round 7-2 2nd Next Best: #7 Megaholtz 3-1 8th Best Value: #2 Savannah Bay 8-1 7th Super Add: #8 Admiral Alex 10-1 WON ($7.40) 3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Hodge-podge of misfits that are being thrown together by connections in a 'have to try something with this horse' manner. ML choice #5 Wonderboy Roy probably will win, and while 8-5 (or less) isn't usually the kind of price you embrace in a race like this, it's tough to latch on to anything else with any confidence.. HAS SCRATCHED! Most Likely: #10 Strolldownbroadway 3-1 5th Best Value: #4 Peytons Heart 12-1 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Miss Hanky Panky 5-1 4th Super Add: #1 Unforgettable P J 12-1 7th 4th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #3 Ducale 9-2 7th Next Best: #13 Jim's Applemartini 7-2 WON ($6.00) Exotics Use: #5 Chuckie's Honor 6-1 6th Super Add: #8 Ambassador Bridge 6-1 2nd 5th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #2 Insider Tip 8-1: Priced right and should get cozy trip 5th Next Best: #3 Caberneigh 9-2: 3rd/break; Handy speed for Gomez.. WON ($7.80) Exotics Use: #6 Rescue Squad 2-1 6th Super Add: #1 En Fuego 7-2 2nd <$50 P4 Play: 2: 1-2-3-6-7-8 3: 1-4-6-10 4: 3 5: 2-3-6 6x4x2x3 = $72 6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Has look of baby race that will be productive, but among the firsters, there needs to be one that is really ready to beat Volcker.. Most Likely: #10 Volcker 3-1 3rd Best Value: #6 Arthur's Tale 10-1 5th Next Best: #3 Astrology 5-1 2nd Super Add: #4 Settle for Medal 6-1 WON ($45.20) 7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD, Super) As discussed by Steve Haskin on ATR Friday, a very intense allowance with some 3yo's involved that could pop up in the Travers with forward efforts.. Most Likely: #1 Morning Line 3-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Heart Butte 8-1 3rd Next Best: #10 Gallant Fields 4-1 10th Super Add: #4 Two Brash 10-1 7th 8th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #7 The Noz 3-1: Obvious, but hardly inspiring.. WON ($6.10) Best Value: #10 Central Red Raider 10-1: One of several that can jump up.. 4th Next Best: #3 Paddock SCR Super Add: #6 Felice Di Notte 12-1 8th 9th: 72nd Diana (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Proviso 5-2: Hard to go against off '10 form.. WON ($6.40) Next Best: #4 Forever Together 2-1: Winless since '09 version of this.. 3rd Best Value: #2 My Princess Jess 8-1: Consistantly close in big races.. 7th Super Add: #3 Phola 4-1: Beautifully handled and still improving.. 6th 10th: 47th Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super) Eventhough the 2010 sophomores are a largely mediocre lot, add this to Sunday's Haskell, the 7th race ALW above and perhaps a West Coast invader or two, and you have the recipe for one of the best Travers in recent memory.. Most Likely: #2 Afleet Express 4-1: J. Jerkens carefully developing sharp colt.. 3rd Best Value: #8 Friend or Foe 8-1: Kimmel-Broman NY-bred red still has tons of upside yet.. 4th Next Best: #9 Fly Down 3-1: Belmont place pony possible tonic for struggling Lezcano.. 5th Super Add: #3 Stormy's Majesty 15-1: From top to NY-bred family; Exotics booster.. 8th 11th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super) Most Likely: #2 Dr. Alex 7-2 5th Next Best: #9 British Banker 3-1 6th Best Value: #6 Brad's My Hero 15-1 8th Super Add: #1 Chromosphere 6-1 4th <$75 P4 Play: 8: 3-7-10 9: 1-4 10: 2-8-9 11: 1-2-6-9 3x2x3x4 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 08-01-2010 at 05:24 AM. 
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#3
07-31-2010, 11:29 AM
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#4
07-31-2010, 11:38 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#8
07-31-2010, 01:46 PM
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RE: Admiral Alex.
Story Andy Beyer did on "Blue"...11 years ago. http://articles.latimes.com/1999/apr/18/sports/sp-28754 There are ZERO Google News returns on his name. Maybe he is just getting back into the game? Looks like he has a winner at the SPA last year too. Hope Steve can get him on the show Monday.
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#9
07-31-2010, 02:21 PM
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#10
07-31-2010, 03:47 PM
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Someone put an enormous win bet on Admiral Alex. 5-2 in the win pool and approximately 8-1 in the Pick 4.
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#11
07-31-2010, 04:19 PM
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__________________
Good Luck......and may a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window! Ed
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