11/6 (CD): 27th Breeders' Cup (Day 2)

[Kasept]

It was as strange a stretch of racing at a high level as I suppose you'll ever see... Breeders' Cup Day 1 kicked off with jockey fisticuffs and ended with a black eye for the game in the Distaff. In between, there were some nice and heartwarming results with people like Stan Gold and Jeff Sanchez, Graham Motion and Edgar Prado, Bret Calhoun and Jamie Theriot and Bobby Flay getting trophies.

The wagering came up largely empty with all multi-race runs coming to a halt with $96 Shared Account. Though well-regarded Dubai Majesty and Awesome Feather won as my 'Next Best' 2nd choices, horses I didn't like much (Switch & R Heat Lightening) interfered with .50 Trifecta plays as they placed in the F&M Sprint and Juvy Fillies respectively. One of the day's lessons was a tight, faster surface that saw closers compromised a fair amount. It will be important to watch the 2 sprints and 1 mile Chilluki today early on to see if the strip is as hot Saturday...

Hope as many of you did well as was possible, and enjoyed the racing portion of Friday's spectacle. As for the two highly unflattering escapades of Act I of the Breeders' Cup, it will be much easier to forgive Calvin Borel and Javier Castellano for their hijinks, than Life at Ten being allowed to run in the Distaff after clear indications that she was not right. I'll reserve comment being without the benefit of full knowledge of the circumstances that led to the state vets letting the near favorite run. But in an environment where stewards of the animals and humans on track and the wagering public observing off it are supposed to be at their most vigilant, it appears that grave and egregious errors were made in the handling of the situation.

Let's table Friday for now and dig in for today's challenges and opportunities!


27th BREEDERS' CUP -- CHURCHILL DOWNS -- DAY 2


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Gibson Crystal 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 It's About Midnight 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Devils Humor 2-1 WON ($8.60)
Super Add: #6 Speightful Lady 5-1 2nd


2nd: Dream Supreme, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Nicole H 3-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Rapport 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Happy Week 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Tidal Pool 10-1 4th


3rd: Chilukki (G2), F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Always a Princess 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Direct Line 30-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 First Passage 6-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Double Espresso 8-1 5th


4th: 4th BC Juvenile Turf (G2), 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Soldat 8-1: May be over-looked after arduous Pilgrim; Tactical and eligible to improve.. 2nd
Next Best: #6 Utley 6-1: Strawbridge homebred looks best of the Euro babies.. 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Banned 10-1: As with Keertana Friday, Proctor impossible to ignore in big spots.. 5th
Super Add: #7 Willcox Inn 20-1: Lawn-intended Stidham colt offers value arriving late; Upset chance.. 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

1: 1-4-6-8
2: 1-2
3: 1-3-4
4: 6-7-8-9-10-13

4x2x3x6 = 144 = $.50 = $72


5th: 27th BC Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Smiling Tiger 6-1: Workout signaled surface move up; Doesn't need lead.. 3rd
Best Value: #11 Atta Boy Roy 12-1: WA-bred superb this strip in spring; Post shouldn't hinder.. 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Big Drama 7-2: Hate eating low tote, but too good all year to exclude.. WON ($12.40)
Super Add: #6 Pachito the Che 15-1: Lake 2/0-1-1 this event with pricey speedballs.. 12th


6th: 3rd BC Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Central City 12-1: Werner team has targeted this event all year.. 2nd
Next Best: #5 Silver Timber 4-1: C. Brown rallying sort bested price play above last.. 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Grand Adventure 12-1: Sam-Son 4yo won't be 12-1 off sharp Nearctic.. 9th
Super Add: #1 Chamberlain Bridge 6-1: Barking dog a concern, but too classy to leave off.. WON ($15.80)

$2 Exacta (1-2) Paid $78.10


7th: 27th BC Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Uncle Mo 7-5: Like Awesome Feather Friday, potential to live up to expectation.. WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #2 Boys at Toscanova 5-2: Damsire Coronado's Quest allays trip concern; Respect connections.. 2nd
Best Value: #9 Rogue Romance 30-1: Price stab including off-pace runner in speed happy field; OK for dirt.. 3rd
Super Add: #4 J P's Gusto 10-1: Love worktab on PVal/Hofmans ridgling; Owns experience edge.. 6th

$1 Exacta (7-2) Paid $8.90
$1 Trifecta (7-2-9) Paid $73.60
.50 Pick 3 (1-1-7) 3 Correct Paid $71.45


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 6-7-8-9
5: 1-5-11
6: 1-2-3-5-11-12
7: 2-7

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


8th: 27th BC Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Goldikova 6-5: Head on Miesque in 2 Cup wins; Chance to make indelible mark here.. WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #7 The Usual Q. T. 15-1: With Court Vision, sharp in Toronto; Doing great and Eddie Read win a blueprint.. 3rd
Next Best: #9 Sidney's Candy 10-1: Was leaning against, but speed edge could allow front end theft; Respect.. 6th
Super Add: #4 Court Vision 12-1: Won WO Mile impressively, and is the right one at price should pace get contested.. 5th

.50 Pick 3 (1-7-10) 3 Correct Paid $30.90


9th: 4th BC Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Here Comes Ben 6-1: Lopresti focused Forego winner on this; Stunning KEE work say 'go'.. 11th
Next Best: #2 Tizway 6-1: Bond 5yo Tiznow logical for laurels with repeat of Kelso effort 5th
Best Value: #7 Thiskyhasnolimit 10-1: Is 3 for 5 at Downs and another specialist who circled this date.. 7th
Super Add: #13 Cool Coal Man 20-1: Will be utterly forgotten; Owns many races good enough for check.. 4th


10th: 27th BC Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Had played against Workforce coming in, but the Arc/Derby winner has SCR'd as threatened by Sir Michael Stoute..

Best Value: #2 Winchester 8-1: Have downplayed Firestone's Theatrical 5yo too often; Big shot at square price.. 4th
Next Best: #7 Behkabad 9-5: Aga Khan's progressive 3yo stayed in Arc; Hints that he'll love the firm footing.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Al Khali 10-1: Won despite Garcia two back, couldn't overcome him in Hirsch; Gets Leparoux.. 6th
Super Add: #3 Telling 20-1: Outclassed as win candidate, but relishes hard ground and coming into it right.. 6th


11th: 27th BC Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Was prepared to swing for fences here with Fly Down, whose Travers try would put him well in the range of this, but condition of Churchill surface Friday prompts awareness that closers chances in titanic edition of this event could be compromised. Zenyatta, and to a lesser extent Blame, may simply not get conditions conducive to reaching contention if the CD strip is as glib Saturday. Quality Road and Haynesfield stand to benefit most from a hot main track of course, but it is Lookin at Lucky who makes the most sense from all angles this day given his tactical speed and how he is coming into the race. He can stay as close as he needs to, and based on how Baffert has worked him, will be finishing well..

Most Likely: #12 Lookin at Lucky 6-1: Doing better than at any point all year; Amends for Derby disappointment.. 4th
Next Best: #5 Blame 9-2: Carefully handled to be ready for this spot; Stall doing little wrong with Arch 4yo.. WON ($12.40)
Best Value: #6 Fly Down 15-1: Puncher's chance with Travers effort reprise strong enough to impact this.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Zenyatta 8-5: 6yo mare's record testimony to Sherriffs' abilities; 19-0 but with something to prove.. 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #3 Haynesfield 12-1: NY bred has progressed since JCGC romp; Thriving in Louisville and not impossible.. 11th

$1 Exacta (5-8) Paid $16.60
$1 Trifecta (5-8-6) Paid $232.50
$1 Superfecta (5-8-6-12) Paid $980.40 ($98.00 for .10)


<$75 or <$300 P6 Play:

6: 2-5-11
7: 7
8: 4-7-9-[10]
9: 2-5
10: 2-5-7
11: 5-12

Full ticket: 3x1x4x2x3x2 = 144 x $2 = $288
Goldikova single [10 in R8]: 3x1x1x2x3x2 = 36 x $2 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 4-7-9-10
9: 2-5-7
10: 2-5-7
11: 5-6-8-12

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[randallscott35]

any word of workforce yet?

[The Bart]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

any word of workforce yet?

scratched according to The Racing Post.

[Kasept]

I'm surprised. Kate Miller said yesterday that William Hill was giving 12-1 against Workforce coming out. Turns out be have been a great bet. The Euros to a man, and woman in Kate's case, thought Stoute would run him...

[hockey2315]

It had to have something to do with Midday, right?

[Kasept]

Breeders' Cup/Churchill SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It had to have something to do with Midday, right?

Perhaps, though I'm not sure how much team approach is taken between Stoute, Cecil and the Juddmonte managers in that regard. They seem to let the trainers operate quite autonomously. I'll try to get some reaction/feedback from Garrett O'Rourke though.

[athornton5]

nicole h is #2 in the second race not the 3

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by athornton5

nicole h is #2 in the second race not the 3

a/t,

Thx! Nice catch.. BOL today!

[pointman]

Unfortunately today gets off to a rough start as well. RIP Rough Sailing. Tough two days for the sport thus far.

[dagolfer33]

Nice job with super in the last, Steve. Hope you had it!