Hollywood Nights 11/11/11

[MaTH716]

Happy Veterans Day! The first of two Hollywood twilight cards are upon us. Also there is a 39k pick 6 carryover. Hopefully the night crew comes out to play, good luck. Hopefully I'll see everyone at 10PM (EST).

Race 1 Statebred MdSpWt. 45k 1 1/6th Turf
#2 VICTORY CUP(2nd)-Making his second career start, ran a game third last out while being wide the entire trip chasing a 6/5 wire to wire winner around the track. Also has a better draw today breaking from inside as opposed to the 10 hole last out.

#5 KESSABTSI- 4 Year old gelding is making his 14th career start (1 place 1 show), 3rd off the layoff. Actually running against Maidens again after a disasterous start against winners where he showed little. It does look like this horse is lone speed in this short field. Hoping he could shake loose at a square price.

#1 TRANDO'S TREMOR-Not sure how I feel about this 4 year gelding. He's making his first start for the Pender barn off the claim, also first time turf and first time going 2 turns. He hung last time after a favorable setup (also was on the wrong lead) in a sprint race. If Pender is able to move him up he certainly has a chance in this weak bunch, but I'm not sure if I'm willing to cover him at what's going to be a unappealing price.


Race 2 Alw N1X 48k 7 fur (F)
The whole field is coming out of the same race on Oct 10th. A case can almost be made for any horse here.

#1 ZENIDEKKA(SCR)- 2ND off a layoff, this filly had a brutal trip last out. She broke a step slow and ended up being boxed in and checked in the stretch. Breaking from the rail again in this short field, she has a legitimate shot to wire the field.
#2 LADY LIAM(2ND)-Finished in front of all these horses in that Oct 10th race. The horse she lost to 2 back came back to win a restricted stakes, also the 2nd place finisher last race came back to win at the same level next out.

Race 3 40k Clm 1 Mile Turf
#5 BRONSTER- Drops a level after just missing across town last out (3rd). Not a ton of pace in this race so he is a threat to take them all the way.
#2 JOKER FACE(1ST $6.00)-Captain Obvious horse has either won or just missed in his last 4 at various levels. I expect him to be close to the lead at a very short price.
#4 KING COLA-2nd off a layoff for this 3 year old gelding out of the Hoffmans barn. Hoping he somehow regains his form of a year ago. Did show some speed from the 11 hole last out, but I'm looking for him to get more of a staking type trip this time out. Also thinking that the prcie should be square.

Race 4 8k Clm 6 Fur
#5 HOWMUCHISIT(2nd)-Got caught in deep stretch last out at 5 1/2 furlongs across town. He did duel in ridiculously fast fractions, there is really no other speedball in this field, so I think there's a good chance that he bottom's out the field right to the winner's circle.
This race seems to be wide open, I'm going to spread wide here triying to find a price.
#6 RAINGEAR-Back around 1 turn today, it just seems like this 6 year old can't get a good trip. Extremely wide 2 back at Del Mar and just misses in a blanket finish. Why not in this wide open affair?
#9 DEE DEE'S LEGACY-Hard knockin 6 year old has hit the board in 15 out of 23 starts (3-9-3 never worst than 5th). In against no world beaters, should be coming late in the stretch.
#3 CAFE CON LECHE(SCR)- He has hit the board in 5-6 starts this year (2-1-2). Dropping back down to 8k level after the poor performance across town last out for 10k. Tossing that on the thought that he just didn't handle the track (labled fast), even though there seemed to be some moisture in it. Should get a good stalking trip from his post.


Race 5 Md Clm 20k 6 1/2 Fur (F)
#3 MY BRITE CAROLINE(1st $12.20)-Makes 2nd start at the level after going wide and missing by a length last out. Also draws towards the inside for todays start.
#5 VIRGINIA WAY(2nd)- Adds shades today for career start number 3. She recieved a strange ride last out after breaking slow and then being hustled to the front, gets a new pilot today.
#7 SATIN BOUQUET-1st start after a 7 1/2 month layoff and dropping in for her lowest level to date. Did show some speed in a couple of her previous races. Not much pace in this race, so if she's ready, she's a threat to go gate to wire.


Race 6 Starter Alw 40k 1 Mile Turf (F)
#5 BROOKLYN ROSE(Win $4.40)-Looks like there's a ton of speed in this race. This filly looks like the one who will benifit the most and pick up the pieces late. Hess's 1st turf and dirt to turf numbers are terrible, but any sort of improvement 2nd off the layoff here gives her a good shot.
#1 BLUE TAMBOURINE-1st start for the Peter Miller Barn, she's shown speed and has drawn the rail. She lost to Harmonious by a length last May.


Race 7 Restricted Stakes 60k 7 1/2 Fur
#1 TWEEBSTER(2nd)- Captain Obvious horse going out for Baffert. Versitile runner, working well for his return off a 7 1/2 month layoff. Most likely will be odds on.
#3 GOLDEN ITIZ- Gets some class relief in his 2nd off a layoff after running in the Goodwood last out. Putting the shades on today, thinking he will try to get the jump on the #1.


Race 8 Md Clm 20k 6 1/2 fur
#3 WHAT A RUSH(2nd)-Chantal's only listed mount of the night, is coming off a 5 1/2 month layoff and is making a drop in for a tag. A.C. Avila has good numbers coming off the layoff and dropping into claiming company. Gelding has shown some speed in his previous starts and there seems to be a lack of other speed in this race.
#2 CHEERS TO BOOGIE(3rd)- Not sure what happened last out, but his 1st race off the layoff wasn't bad when he broke from the 13 post. Good work on Nov 3rd coming into this race.
Depending on your budget, this might be a good spot to hit the ALL button.

Possible plays:
.50 pick 5 or $36 dollar early four
2,5/1,2/2,4,5/3,5,6,9/3,5,7 $72
$2 pick 6
2,4,5/5,6,9/3,5,7/1,5/1/3 $108

.50 late 4
3,5,7/1,5/1,3/all $48

Good Luck everyone.

[RockHardTen1985]

Nice work Math. Good Luck tonight. If I hit anything at Aqueduct now, Ill be jumping in.

[Sethcarter]

Very nice job Matt.... good luck tonight

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Hopefully I'll see everyone at 10PM (EST).

[Rootdog1]

Someone is ready...nice work! Late races might chalk out but races 2-5 are super tough.

[RockHardTen1985]

Im in tonight. Just starting now.
Race 1- Is there any reasson at all to want the 1? I dont see it, and Im tossing him. Im using the 2,3. The 2 is obvious, the 3 because if sent he is the speed.

Race 2- I think Eoin Harty is a complete and total disaster. For my $ he is the worse good trainer in the game. Im not calling him good either, but Im sure some people do. If the 3 or 4 steps up they can beat the 2. Tossing the 2.

Thats all I got for now. If you want to discuss these races Ill be in for the night in about an hour.

Early P4,starts in 2nd race.

2/all/3,5,8,9/1,3,7,16 $56

[Rudeboyelvis]

Unusual Heats are pretty strong turf.... if there's anything to it, the 5 might be worth a bit of a look at a decent number in the first

Oops..Just saw you're analysis, Matt... I Shoulda known you bettah, you sharpie

[Rudeboyelvis]

Not touching the P5... The 1 is a trap that I can't stand and usually bites me in the asz...

Earliiii P4:

2//2,3,5,7,8//5,8,9//3,5,7,16

30.00

[Bigsmc]

I'm not betting the 1st, but think the 1 is the controlling speed and should be able to wire these unless one of the other pinheads decide to go on a suicide mission. From the looks of the jocks in this race, I don't know if you can trust any of them. Pass.

Early Pick 4

2 - All
3 - 2,5,6,7,8
4 - 5,9
5 - 7,16

GL

[DBURGH]

Good Luck All....Friday Night Wood..

[Rudeboyelvis]

R5) 13 Jms Golden Legacy... 1st lasix in 5th start? Don't think he's good enough but that's the kind of angle that gets these things blown up...

[dagolfer33]

Night crew is always represented.....I dont know if I can stomach any more pk4's after the embarrassment that was the late pk4's at NY and CD today, however if you get thrown off a horse....well, you know the saying.

[Port Conway Lane]

Race #1 11/11/2011
Hollywood Park
$0.50 Pick-5
# 1 Jock/trainer combo
WT # 2,4 same here
WT # 2,5 same here but 6,7,8 are every bit as good
WT # 5,8,9 every horse in here sucks at hollywood except 7,8,9...7-bet flat
WT # 1,7,16 Bejarano,Sadler,Sadler
$18.00

[MaTH716]

That race was so bad, that it's comical.

[Bigsmc]

There's Jack Van Burg's quarterly win. He's done until 2012 now.

I decided after looking at race 1 to pass.

Good luck.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

That race was so bad, that it's comical.

JVB won it. That's comical by itself.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

JVB won it. That's comical by itself.

He's now 4/163..............

[Dahoss]

Remington 7th
$2 pick 3
1,2,6,8/ 5/ 4

$1 pick 3
1,2,6,8/ 5/ 12

$20 win 2