2/26: Aqueduct ($113k C/O); Gulfstream (5th-12th)

[Kasept]

Funny day Saturday with a handful of solid opinions at Gulfstream that kept the balance sheet unharmed on strength of $160+ in P5 consos and a decent $150 P3 boosted by Here to Win. Garafalo Davona Dale upsetter Yara derailed nearly everybody at Hallandale while Nates Mineshaft did the same thing to multi-race plays at New Orleans. Not a bad day, but we all will have to make the strong Sunday Fountain of Youth card and the AQU carryover sequence fodder for weekend profitability.. Hope you did OK yesterday!


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: NY-MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Formless looking group and now top tab has SCR'd..

Most Likely: #10 Northern Rush 5-1 4th
Best Value: #4 One Golden Cat 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Offshore Score 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Backdrafter 12-1 5th


5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Sacred Success obviously a heavy single on P6 tickets. Not a Super player, but may fool around trying to get #7 (30-1) Princess Reyana and/or #3 (15-1) French Laundry in the mix under the odds-on Dutrow-Dominguez..

Most Likely: #8 Sacred Success 3-5 WON ($2.30)
Best Value: #6 Dyna Vision 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Fast Fleet Cat 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Lenders Way 8-1 2nd

.10 Super: 8 with 2-3-4-6-7 with 2-3-4-6-7 with 2-3-4-6-7 = 1x5x4x3 = 60 x .10 = $6.00


6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Another race with very little mystery as to the horse to beat with Winning Move/Galluscio dropping Hoopskirt to the bottom. Next three are interchangeable..

Most Likely: #7 Hoopskirt 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #4 Rock Star Royalty 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Zodiac Girl 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Sweet as a Kiss 6-1 3rd


7th: NY-OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Fun race and if you can beat Mineswept, it could get profitable..

Most Likely: #1 Mineswept 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Southbeachsandy 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Cooper River 4-1 4th
Super Add; #9 Six Flings 12-1 3rd


8th: Hildy's Grey-NY, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Great Gracie Dane 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #1a (POE) Minerologist 8-1 3rd/5th
Next Best: #2 Opus A 9-5 WON ($5.20)


9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 6f (Super)

Top pair of African Jazz (5-2) and Miss Mexique (7-2) move to potent new barns. Would love to tell you that our Dee Tee filly Ausable Chasm can compete coming back off the frustrating non-effort as favorite 11 days ago, but it's become impossible to predict when she might run the way she did on New Year's Day..

Most Likely: #10 African Jazz 5-2 6th
Next Best: #4 Miss Mexique 7-2 WON ($14.00)
Best Valuie: #2 Soldierette 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Ausable Chasm 20-1 8th


<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1-4-6-10
5: 8
6: 7
7: 1-2-3-9
8: 1-2-5
9: 10

4x1x1x4x3x1 = 48 x $2 = $96


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-7-10
7: 1-2-3-9
8: 1-2-5
9: 2-4-10

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72



GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T/108' (P3, DD, Super)

Expect to see many of these in the soph gal turf stakes soon. Fair amount of front end interested parties here, so stalker-closers should have every opportunity to put their run in..

Note that SCR's will affect the pace with three of the speed types coming out..

Most Likely: #4 Sweet Cat 5-2 6th
Best Value: #2 Heart of Destiny 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Karlovy Vary 6-1 WON ($13.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Anna Sophia 6-1 4th


6th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Forward March 6-1: Away since debut score; Dam Angel's Nest a Miesque daughter.. 6th
Next Best: #4 Liberty Bound 5-2: Predisposed to liking him as I loved dam Hello Liberty.. 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Seve 8-1: Light finally on after breaking MDN in try #8? Worked sharp for this.. 2nd
Super Add: #1 Dreaming of Neno 3-1: Longer price of the entry runs.. 7th


7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Deep and challenging MDN group with stretchouts and surface moves galore..

Best Value: #4 S S Pinafore 10-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Preach Tome Daddy 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Miss Montreal 4-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #3 The Adjudent 20-1 11th


8th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

More nice MDN's, this time on the main including Sightseek's Giant Causeway colt Night Site from Juddmonte; Zito 2nd timer Spin Out, a Hard Spun that's a half to Friendly Island; Firster Prince of Spain from Pat Byrne, a son of Spain by Giant's Causeway; Arm Force, a full brother to Well Armed..

Most Likely: #3 Spin Out 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Unbridled Fire 4-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Elusive Success 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Arm Force 20-1 WON ($24.40)


9th: OC/N2X, 4+, 9f-T/108' (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Utley 5-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Point of Entry 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Slow Pace 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Freshman Dorm 4-1 6th


10th: 19th Mac Diarmida (G2), 4+, 11f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Predictably good, well matched group..

Most Likely: #5 Simmard 5-1 WON ($10.60)
Best Value: #1 Eagle Poise 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Musketeer 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Dixie Emperor 12-1 10th


11th: 68th Fountain of Youth (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Union Rags runs right into the teeth of Team Todd in his 3yo bow and while he fits the pattern of the type that is pointing for 'bigger and better' later this spring, has been working steadily. Zito looks for snap back effort from Casual Trick. Discreet Dancer tries to pick up where he left off 7 weeks ago..

Most Likely: #5 Discreet Dancer 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Casual Trick 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Union Rags 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Neck 'n Neck 15-1 4th


12th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 7.5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Debuting Ruthless Empire cost Donegal $135k new and is a half to Rutherienne and Ruthenia. Daring people to claim right away or simply placing him where Romans thinks he can win? #13 (AE) More Anon interesting should he draw in..

Most Likely: #8 Pikestar 4-1
Best Value: #7 Slinger 12-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Starship Storm 8-1 WON ($22.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Yes He's Trouble 7-2 5th
Super/Hi-5: #6 Ruthless Empire 5-1 3rd


<$50 P5 Play:

8: 3-9
9: 1-4-7
10: 1-5
11: 4-5-7
12: 7-8

2x3x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36


<$50 P4 Play:

9: 1-4-7
10: 1-5
11: 4-5-7
12: 3-6-7-8-11

3x2x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45


Good luck!
Steve

[dino]

Algorithms reportedly scratched

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

Some significant outs from AQU sequence..

GP SCR/CHG'S

And some significant one at GP too, over and above Algorithms..

[RockHardTen1985]

Steve Im giving Casual Trick 1 more shot today. Ill use Discreet Dancer with him.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Steve Im giving Casual Trick 1 more shot today. Ill use Discreet Dancer with him.

Yeah. Definitely worth sticking with him though the Algorithms departure queers the pricing. Expect an effort in line with his GP Derby try and think Wilkes' Neck 'n Neck improves. Starting to doubt anyone beats Discreet Dancer though.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yeah. Definitely worth sticking with him though the Algorithms departure queers the pricing. Expect an effort in line with his GP Derby try and think Wilkes' Neck 'n Neck improves. Starting to doubt anyone beats Discreet Dancer though.

Talk about a word that has suffered a pejorative decline.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yeah. Definitely worth sticking with him though the Algorithms departure queers the pricing. Expect an effort in line with his GP Derby try and think Wilkes' Neck 'n Neck improves. Starting to doubt anyone beats Discreet Dancer though.

I thought Discreet Dancer was the one to beat before the scratch. Unfortunately scratch really kills the price

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Talk about a word that has suffered a pejorative decline.

LOL. Still a valuable 'go to' in my lexicon.

[pointman]

Steve, these Aqueduct scratches really screwed up my pk6 play. I give you credit for having the noggins to single Hoopskirt, but I just can't trust her even with the big drop and think that Smartie Bobbi could wire that field. The scratches in the 4th really complicated the sequence. Good Luck today!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pointman

Steve, these Aqueduct scratches really screwed up my pk6 play. I give you credit for having the noggins to single Hoopskirt, but I just can't trust her even with the big drop and think that Smartie Bobbi could wire that field. The scratches in the 4th really complicated the sequence. Good Luck today!

Yeah... 4th was a raw deal. You needed to have the bankroll to go 'all' the way the California guys do in impossible spots. "Bad horses win bad races"..

Plenty of opps the rest of the way! (And the filly is going to surprise later..) G/L!

[Kasept]

That was some race the Contessa filly ran at Gulfstream in the 5th..

[Kasept]

4/5 over the top on Liberty Bound..

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yeah... 4th was a raw deal. You needed to have the bankroll to go 'all' the way the California guys do in impossible spots. "Bad horses win bad races"..

Plenty of opps the rest of the way! (And the filly is going to surprise later..) G/L!

Of course the Aqueduct jocks picked today's 6th race to finally get aggressive on the lead.

[pointman]

And yet another race filled with speed on paper and a horse gets a relatively easy lead to wire the field at the Big A. NYRA should hire Mig to give the Aqueduct jocks a lesson in reading a racing form.

[Kasept]

Rainbow 6 hit for $78k.

Another middling effort from me today, leaving money on the table. Decent finish. Hope everyone did OK...