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#1
10-10-2013, 07:27 AM
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10/10: Belmont Park ($27k C/O); Santa Anita ($575k C/O)
No shortage of winners Wednesday but a couple of modest budget boosts on the BEL and KEE P4's had potential to close out $500 and $900 hits respectively and I wasn't to pleased with myself. $20+ Peytonville in the Keeneland nightcap made the day palatable, but obviously left a nice chunk of change on the table. Hope everyone did well. Monster C/O at Santa Anita should hit $2.5MM and Belmont has a $27k pot which is threatened by anticipated precipitation..
BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 4th: MCLM/$35k, 3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD) Tricky, well-matched set to open P6.. Most Likely: #4 Lion Keen 7-2 2nd Best Value: #8 Brother Brendan 12-1 7th Next Best: #1 Defiant 2-1 WON ($6.80) Exotics Use: #6 Captain Keon 20-1 3rd Super Add: #7 Copper Beeches 8-1 8th 5th: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Shortcoming 5-1 6th Best Value: #5 Fastinov 20-1 3rd-DQ'D from WIN Next Best: #6 Plausibly 3-1 4th Exotics Use: #7 Fiddlers Chico 7-2 7th 6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Polecat 5-2 2nd Best Value: #2 Lulu Rocks 5-1 6th Next Best: #3 Freddie G 3-1 5th 7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f-T (P3, DD) Social Affair ran into Shadow Banking (2nd, Pilgrim) in solidly-bet debut.. Most Likely: #1 Social Affair 9-5 4th Next Best: #7 Double Whammy 3-1 5th Best Value: #3 Theros 5-1 WON ($15.80) Exotics Use: #4 Gara Gattino 6-1 3rd 8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7.5f (DD) Most Likely: #3 Harley 5-2 2nd Next Best: #7 Mr Rodriguez 4-1 5th Best Value: #5 Streets of Fire 8-1 8th Exotics Use: #9 Ego Friendly 3-1 3rd 9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T Most Likely: #4 Hardrocker 5-1 2nd Best Value: #7 Flowing Mane 8-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Mr Algebra 5-2 6th Exotics Use: #9 Seeking Harmony 10-1 4th RAIN LIGHT AT THIS HOUR (11:00a).. <$200 P6 Play: 4: 1-4-8 5: 3-5-6 6: 5 7: 1 8: 3-5-7-9 9: 4-7 3x3x1x1x4x2 = 72 x $2 = $144 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 5 7: 1-3-4-7 8: 3-5-7-9 9: 1-2-4-5-7-9 1x4x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48 SANTA ANITA POST-SCRATCHES 3rd: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD) Despite the acclamation in Danderek's direction, I'm finding this a challenging start to the sequence. Feels like there is plenty of pace on and I believe you need to cover those that will be rallying.. Most Likely: #5 Husband's Folly 5-2 (A) 4th Next Best: #7 Danderek 6-5 (A) WON ($4.00) Best Value: #3 Midnight Crooner 6-1 (B) 7th Exotics Use: #6 Mr. Candy Bar 5-1 (C) 3rd 4th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD) Upper level MCLM's and looks like at least 6 are capable for circle. 3-4-5 participated in same DMR event with Shopping Savannah (6-1) having the most upside of the three. Firsters from Baffert (1) and Miller (7) demand respect with Miller's For Emma earning better worktab reviews.. Best Value: #5 Shopping Savannah 6-1 (A) 3rd Next Best: #4 Goodhumorgirl 5-2 (A) 4th Exotics Use: #7 For Emma 6-1 (B) WON ($10.20) Super Add: #1 Lady of the Nile 4-1 (B) 6th 5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD) Competitive but give edge to Miss Well Molded (Stevens gets first run on pacesetters) and Lilly's Perfect (Mulhall claim-back with which Bejarano sticks). Always a Chance saves ground and could knock on door late.. Most Likely: #6 Miss Well Molded 9-2 (A) WON ($8.00) Next Best: #8 Lilly's Perfect 7-2 (A) 3rd Best Value: #1 Always a Chance 6-1 (B) 2nd Exotics Use: #10 Love Tale 8-1 (C) 8th 6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD) Don't know if I've ever seen a race with this many starters (9) all coming in with layoff lines. Had hoped single Crucero who gets back to dirt and looks poised for forward move, but the 2 Bafferts (4-8) appear serious based on a.m. reports. Jon White made interesting points for some oddballs including Ray Bell's Bornatthetrack (fast works for old school conditioner).. Most Likely: #2 Crucero 5-2 (A) 6th Best Value: #4 Secretsatmidnight 6-1 (B) 8th Next Best: #8 Cat Burglar 3-1 (B) WON ($7.60) Exotics Use: #3 Scarly Charly 4-1 (B) 3rd Super Add: #5 Bornatthetrack 8-1 (C) 9th 7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (DD) Evenly matched group that is largely devoid of speed. Lumberyard Jack is going to have the lead and a case can be made he is worth singling.. Most Likely: #8 Lumberyard Jack 5-2 (A) 6th Next Best: #2 Shadow Runner 7-2 (B) 5th Best Value: #7 Arctic North 8-1 (B) WON ($13.20) Exotics Use: #6 Holladay Road 4-1 (C) 2nd 8th: MCLM/$$20k, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super Hi-5) Most Likely: #4 Make More Money 5-2 (A) WON ($4.20) Next Best: #1 Truly Beautiful 3-1 (A) 2nd Best Value: #11 Full of Spice 8-1 (B) 3rd Exotics Use: #5 Reddaxle 6-1 (C) 9th <$200 P6 Play: 3: 5-7 4: 4-5 5: 6-8 6: 2-3-4-8 7: 8 8: 1-4-11 2x2x2x4x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$50 P4 Play: 5: 1-6-8 6: 2-3-4-5-8 7: 2-8 8: 1-4-11 3x5x2x3 = 90 x .50 = $45 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 10-10-2013 at 08:00 PM. 
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#2
10-10-2013, 11:04 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
10-10-2013, 02:12 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
10-10-2013, 02:37 PM
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$107k in new money added to Belmont P6..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
10-10-2013, 03:21 PM
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Ooof.. that was tough. Right call, but ouch nonetheless.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
10-10-2013, 03:29 PM
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i didn't even bet the race and that was rough....pick 4 spread play at Keenland Boss ?
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#8
10-10-2013, 08:02 PM
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$88,776 BEL DBL C/O FRIDAY!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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