12/19: Aqueduct (6th-9th); Fair Grounds (8th-10th)

[Kasept]

Very irksome miss in the Aqueduct C/O P5 Friday which returned nearly $1,000, as decision to cut budget from $136 to $96 proved fateful. Initial full approach utilizing complete A-B-C plays included Quibbler as an A in the first leg, but in trying to keep the investment under $100, I crippled a backup ticket that had a successful A-A-A-A-C punch.

This topic gets right back to the conversation I had with Andy Serling Tuesday on ATR where we broached the budget issues on P6's. When constructing plays in the analysis, I never want to suggest outlandish budgets that will be a stretch for the average player and a $100 cap seemed right and reasonable for this opportunity.

The A-B-C plays did catch the P4 for $235 which covered the multi outlays, but nailing the P5 is the difference in making the day top notch as opposed to the trading of dollars. Finding $10 Singsong and $21 Core Portfolio in the 3rd and 4th provided some incoming as well. Was a fun scenario to attack and I hope everyone did well. Nice assortment of action around the country today..


AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Hills' Malibu Action was nipped in sharp debut and certainly looms as one to beat, but Kenneally turnback Hot Squad plenty eligible with firsters from Brown and Violette logical upon introduction. Wild Impulse (8-1) from Linda Rice shows steady gains with experience, but needs to make up 3 lengths on the favorite out of last. Iswear I'll Behave (15-1) was pricey ($120k) for a Gone Astray and appears tuned for bow..

Most Likely: #5 Malibu Action 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #9 Hot Squad 3-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Moon Over a Beauty 8-1 WON ($31.40)
Exotics Use: #4 My Man Sam 6-1 5th


7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Too much pace here, (with 2 adding blinkers), for back half of field not to impact..

Most Likely: #4 Candid Desire 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Cort 7-2 7th
Best Value: #3 Mello Groove 30-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Thnxtomyuncle 12-1 8th


8th: 110th Queens County, 3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Tommy Macho 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Financial Modeling 6-1 WON ($9.50)
Next Best: #3 Kid Cruz 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Mylute 4-1 4th


9th: NY-MCLM/$25k, 2yo-F, 1m-70y

Ugly bunch o' coconuts..

Most Likely: #9 Corinthian's Joy 2-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Sheyn Vi Di Levone 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 SCR
Exotics Use: #10 Roaring Vixen 8-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

6: 5-9 (A), 4-7 (B), 6-8 (C)
7: 4-5 (A), 3 (B), 6-7-9 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
9: 9 (A), 1/SCR-7 (B), 3-8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x $0.50 = $72



FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: 10 Diliberto Mewmorial, 4+, 8.5f-T (Black Gold P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Lewis Vale 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Lookout 4-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Potomac River 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Regally Ready 3-1 6th


9th: 51st Tiffany Lass, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Please Explain 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Sweet Basil 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Cash Control 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Silent Ronin 10-1 6th


10th: 51st Tenacious, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Eagle 4-1 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #3 Ride On Curlin 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Freestyler 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Treasury Bill 5-1


P3 Grid:

8: 4 (A), 7-8 (B), 1 (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 5-9 (B), 1 (C)
10: 2-3 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2 = $24


Good luck!
Steve

[LoneStarHorse]

Steve what you're doing for your forum is great. Sharing your knowledge is very insightful....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by LoneStarHorse

Steve what you're doing for your forum is great. Sharing your knowledge is very insightful....

LSH..

Thanks.. We've got a great team of real players here that encourage each other.