5/29: Belmont Park ($40k C/O)

Kasept · #1 05-29-2016, 10:23 AM

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$40k C/O starts here..

Current difficulty of speed-mad turf makes these decisions tricky. Could a Forever Ever plus grab lead and prove uncatchable? Franco did it yesterday for Sciacca/Henning with dirt/turf stretchout Baronet who exploded. Carmouche typically aggressive and may be compelled to go forward with 2nd/layoff Killarney Rose (5-1). Will at least be on front end of things and feels like right mare to key. Cap's Vow saddled with off-turf in seasonal debut and likely floats up from 7-2 ML..

Best Value: #3 Killarney Rose 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Cap's Vow 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Wealth Creation 8-5 5th
Super Add: #1 Amazing Anne 6-1 WON ($7.20)

5th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Forever d'Oro, the Forever Unbridled/Unbridled Forever brother, comes to NY from Churchill for Dallas Stewart in search of diploma, but didn't wander into a soft spot at all. Seat of Honor makes 3yo debut for Farish/Shug and showed steady development as a juvenile. Mandy Pope's $1.6MM I'm Amazing, half to Oxbow, returns for 2nd start as does Howell Mountain, out of nice Silverbulletday winner Belle of Perintown for Pletcher. $850k Godolphin yearling buy Travis County has failed to threaten in 2 starts but goes 2nd Lasix and hints at 'go time' with 3 drills since 4/24 AQU start..

Most Likely: #2 Forever d'Oro 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #3 Travis County 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Seat of Honor 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Howell Mountain 5-1 4th

6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD)

For P6 purposes, you'd ideally like to get away with favored Asset Inflation up front and Runaway Posse from the back of the pack. Polar Axis has potential to sneak along down inside at a square price..

Most Likely: #5 Asset Inflation 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Runaway Posse 2-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Polar Axis 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Front 6-1 5th

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Jose Ortiz sides with Flattermefabulous, but Adirondack Luck gets Carmouche and should sit behind what should be an honest enough pace..

Most Likely: #5 ADIRONDACK LUCK 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 PussyWillow 6-1 9th
Best Value: #3 Sugar Mags 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Flattermefabulous 3-1 7th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Nice group and not a lot separating it..

Most Likely: #5 Our Caravan 2-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Comfort 3-1 WON ($11.40)
Best Value: #1 Backsideofthemoon 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Mills 4-1 2nd

9th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 7f-T

Most Likely: #5 Princessofthieves 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Galroyale 6-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Sweet Ella 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Veil Dance 12-1 WON ($22.00)

P6 Grid:

4: 3-5 (A), 1-8 (B), 2-7 (C)
5: 2 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
6: 5-8 (A), - (B), 1-6-7 (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), 2-3-6-7 (C)
8: 5 (A), 2 (B), 1-6-7 (C)
9: 5-11 (A), - (B), 9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A's: 2x1x2x1x1x2 = 8 x $2 = $16

P4 Grid:

6: 5-8 (A), - (B), 1-6-7 (C)
7: 5 (A), 6 (B), 2-3-7 (C)
8: 2-5 (A), 1-6-7 (B), 3-4 (C)
9: 5-9-11 (A), 8-10-12 (B), 2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x5x6 = 120 x $.50 = $60
All A's: 2x1x2x3 = $12

Good luck!
Steve