7/29: Saratoga (Vanderbilt, Jim Dandy, Bowling Green)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Bourbon Resolution has advantage of a start, and a good one, over the Pletchers and the Asmussen..

Most Likely: #3 Bourbon Resolution 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Mojovation 9-5 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #6 Country Squire 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Lionite 7-2 2nd


2nd: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Deep and nice looking group of 3yo's, many that appear to have plenty of upside. Hieroglyphics keeps improving for Pletcher. Benefactor, well bred for grass, moves to lawn for Maker who has been consistently successful with this move. Master Merion took a while to break through, but ability to rate some in MDN-breaker bodes well for added distance. Capitane is out of a full sister to Justenuffhumor, thereby a half to Dreaming of Anna & Lewis Michael. Could leap forward on lawn for Hennig. Surprise Twist saves all the ground while adding Castellano off LRL diploma for Delacour/Lael..

Most Likely: #8 Hieroglyphics 3-1 WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #10 Benefactor 12-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Hembree 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Capitaine 15-1 7th


3rd: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Pico Chick 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Kirby's Penny 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #2 Murrell's Bell 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Kentucky Dancer 6-1 7th


4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Fascinating group of juveniles, many with appropriate breeding from outfits proven in this assignment..

Best Value: #9 Johnny Ray 10-1: 2nd Ward kin to several fast, early winners.. 7th
Next Best: #1 Beta Max 5-1: Tricky draw for debuting half to Lady Shipman.. 8th
Exotics Use: #3 El Dulce 5-2 WON ($11.60)
Super Add: #2 Ultima D 8-1 2nd


5th: 25th Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Pletcher has won this with some fancy colts that went on to sire careers (Quality Road, Discreetly Mine, Forty Tales) and Coal Front has everything going for him including speed and style that suits race flow..

Most Likely: #2 Coal Front 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #6 Toga Challenger 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Excitations 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Mo Cash 5-2 4th


P5 Grid:

1: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 8-10 (A), 2-7-11 (B), 3-4 (C)
3: 3-7 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
4: 1-3-9 (A), 2-5 (B), 7-8 (C)
5: 2 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5x1 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (5/5,8,9/3/3/2) Paid $66.37


P4 Grid:

2: 8-10-11 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-4 (C)
3: 3-7 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
4: 1-2-3-9 (A), 5-8-10 (B), 4-7 (C)
5: 2 (A), 5 (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x7x2 = 140 x .50 = $70
All A's: 3x2x4x1 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$1 Pick-4 (5,8,9/3/3/2) Paid $65.00 ($32.50 for .50)


6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 11f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

I've seen this movie before. It stars Michael Matz & Julien Leparoux with a brilliantly-bred Strawbridge runner coming in to a spot mispriced..

Best Value: #4 Tasit 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Call Provision 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Nessy 6-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Tathqeef 10-1 8th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ack Naughty 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #5 La Sola Ranger 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Mom's On Strike 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Vagabond 4-1 9th


8th: 33rd A.P. Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Don't blame Wilkes for trying to get Bird Song to the Whitney for Mary Lou, but this is what he wants to do..

Best Value: #5 BIRD SONG 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Limousine Liberal 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 A.P. Indian Late SCR
Super Add: #7 Ready for Rye 12-1 6th


9th: 59th Bowling Green (G2), 4+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

G1 winners (United Nations/Manhattan) on either end of the starting gate merit edge, but the 5 in between are rock solid and capable of fitting anywhere in the pecking order. Really nice edition of this downstate standard that has been re-purposed as a Sword Dancer prep..

Most Likely: #7 Ascend 8-5 4th
Next Best: #1 Bigger Picture 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Closing Bell 8-1 DNF
Exotics Use: #4 Sadler's Joy 3-1 3rd


10th: 54th Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Derby & Preakness winners prepare for Travers and while Always Dreaming or Cloud Computing are exceedingly likely, cases can be made for Guiseppe the Great, Pavel and Good Samaritan making an impact, with each doing something for the first time at a point in the year and their careers where they can leap forward..

Most Likely: #2 Cloud Computing 6-5 5th
Next Best: #1 Always Dreaming 1-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Guiseppe the Great 10-1 2nd


11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Lightly raced set of fillies going long on the grass and no easy cross-outs..

Most Likely: #2 Durable Goods 3-1 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #8 Magical Sky 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Wake Island 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Fashion Week 8-1 4th


P5 Grid:

7: 8 (A), 5-7 (B), 2-3-6 (C)
8: 5 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 1-3-4-7 (A), 2-5-6 (B), - (C)
10: 1-2 (A), - (B), 3-4-5 (C)
11: 2-3-8 (A), - (B), 1-4-6-7-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x7x2x3 = 126 x .50 = $63
All A's: 1x1x4x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

8: 5 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 1-3-4-7 (A), 2-5-6 (B), - (C)
10: 1-2 (A), - (B), 3-4-5 (C)
11: 2-3-4-8 (A), 1-6-7-11 (B), 5-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x7x2x8 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A's: 1x4x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

R2 5-9

R4 6

R6 1 (POE)

R7 6-13-14

[atolunch]

Steve,

Please double check race 4, I think Johnny Rae is the #9, not #10 as listed.

Good luck today and thanks as always!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by atolunch

Steve,

Please double check race 4, I think Johnny Rae is the #9, not #10 as listed.

Good luck today and thanks as always!

THX Larry! Let's get lucky..

[atolunch]

The Byk train keeps on a rollin!

Great job on the early P4 & P5's. All A's All the way, doesn't get much better than that.

Congrats and thanks as always!