Saratoga Saturday Aug. 26th (R6-13)

[Kitan]

Race 6:
#2 Songbird: Needs some competition...

Race 7:
Very competitive race...
#7 Highway Star: Going to take a bit of a shot with this one. She's 7 for 8 around one-turn with her only loss being at 8.5f last out behind Songbird and Paid Up Subscriber. She's beaten horses such as High Ridge Road, Bar of Gold, and Indulgent who show up in the form lines of others here who will be much shorter prices.
#3 Paulassilverlining: As much as I want to try and beat her, it's going to be difficult. Speed doesn't look like it's going to be hot and she'll get a nice stalking trip. She's very game and the Chad-Jose combo has been lethal so far at the meet.
#1 Birdatthewire: Another price play that I think has a big shot. Not beaten much by these in this race last year and I don't think her form is any worse---just dirtied up. Premature move from gapped off last to pressing the leaders on the turn last out. Two back was basically the only runner from the back to make up ground after floating into the 8 path on the turn and flew past on the gallop out. With the blinkers on, inside draw, and potential moderate pace, hopefully she's not too far back this time around.
#4 By the Moon: Think 7f will be more suitable than the 6f last out, but even though she was 2nd in this last year she has always seemed maybe a small step behind the best.
Tough to leave out #2 but her last is her only race good enough to win this and she has to prove herself outside GP.

Race 8:
#7 Coal Front: Three dominant wins to start his career and looks to get the perfect stalking trip. Has already gotten a win over this surface.
#8 No Dozing: If he's able to rate with the blinkers then he seems great value here. 3 for 3 sprinting, ran a monster race at Keeneland, and was off slow and got too far back at Churchill.
#1 Practical Joke: Suggested to be better around one-turn, but I'm not too sure about that, especially after a great run in the Haskell. Other than Syndergaard who could not handle 8f he hasn't actually beaten anything of real quality in those one-turn races.
#9 American Anthem: Baffert ships them with a purpose, but I think this is tougher than his last and he was getting leg-weary late. Looked good in his work on Aug. 20th.

Race 9:
#10 Drefong: I know he was riderless but at least he competed and got in a nice "prep" race. Champ looks like he'll have it his own way up front and if he upholds his 3yo form he will be very difficult to run down.
#4 Divining Rod
#6 Mind Your Biscuits

Race 10:
#7 Idaho: I've seen the stat that O'Brien is 2/30 in non BC races in the past 5 years, but quite a few of those either had no chance or were overbet because of the connections. I think half the horses he's run in NA this year have been double digit odds. It's quite simple: either of his last two races romps here. The first two in his last would be odds-on if they ran in this spot, and he would have finished closer if not for losing position on the turn. Ground was terrible that day and the firmer conditions will suit. His run at WO last year wasn't that bad---they came home in 22 4/5 in a 12f race; there's not much more he could have done from that position. Connections are confident.
#5 Money Multiplier
#6 Erupt

Race 11:
#6 Girvin: 10-1 ML on a Haskell winner in the Travers seems too good to be true. Toss the KY Derby (quarter crack and lost all chance on the far turn) and his price is a huge overlay. Gutsy horse will continue to grind the final 1/8th and turned in a nice move in his final morning prep.
#5 Good Samaritan: Always have been dubious of this 3yo dirt crop and he's run close on a few occasions to who may be the best 3yo in the country in Oscar Performance. Relished the dirt with an explosive win in the Jim Dandy and has every chance to repeat.
#3 West Coast: Baffert has taken it slow with this one and may be peaking at the right time. Solid win at Belmont but got the pace set-up in a not so strong field. Seemed to struggle with the tight Los Al turns but really accelerated well in the stretch. Didn't look overly impressive in his work with American Anthem but connections will have him primed.
#10 Irap: Was not a fan of him earlier in the spring but he has developed really well as the year has gone on and would be no surprise to see him take another step forward and add a G1 to his resume.

Race 12:
#2 Roca Rojo: All the talk is on the other two Chad runners, but don't forget about this one. I think she's much better than her last where she was quite rank down the backstretch. With a slower tempo expected I think she'll get a trip similar to two back where she put in a great performance off an extended layoff to take out a G2 on the Derby undercard. Rocketed home late at Del Mar to just miss against Miss Temple City (would have won going away if that race was 8.5f). Favoured against #5 last time and may be twice the odds of that one this time around, all while getting 8lbs weight turnaround from that race.
#1 Lady Eli: The champ is the one to beat, but she just hasn't been doing it as easy as she was before the health issues.
#5 Antonoe: Maybe with a different trip she could have won last time, but she had enough room on the rail to get by if she was good enough. Originally had forgotten she had broke through the gate prior to the start...

Race 13:
#3 Street Review: 2nd time Lasix and blinkers, 3rd off the layoff, and gets back to turf where she belongs. Kimmel got off the mark with a Stakes win yesterday and I think he's got two live longshots here.
#10 Nile Prince: Hasn't run poorly in either start and now gets a big time rider upgrade to Santana.
#11 Herecomesyourman: Got caught pressing a quick pace and now drops in for 40k. Should be able to slot over into a nice stalking trip.
#12 Wingman: In tight and a little short of room late in the stretch last out and is another that drops in for 40k.
I'll defend and add #4 in the P4 and in exotics, but he had no excuse last time when up on a slow pace and fading late to be 3rd.

$2 Pick Six
Race 7: 3, 7
Race 8: 1, 7, 8, 9
Race 9: 10
Race 10: 7
Race 11: 3, 5, 6
Race 12: 1, 2, 5
$144

$1 Middle (G1) Pick Four
Race 8: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9
Race 9: 10
Race 10: 7
Race 11: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12
$45
+ $0.60 cover 1,7,8,9/4,6/7/1,3,5,6,10 = $30.00
+ $0.60 cover 1,7,8,9/10/5, 6/1,3,5,6,10 = $30.00
= $105.00 total

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 10: 7
Race 11: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12
Race 12: 1, 2, 5
Race 13: 3, 4, 10, 11, 12
$81.00