5/4: Churchill Downs (145th Derby Day)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 145TH DERBY DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Gold Standard 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 She's Got Moves 6-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Brie's Lucky Charm Late SCR
Exotics Use: #5 Hungry Kitten 12-1 WON ($12.80)


6th: Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 17f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Spiced Perfection 7-2 4th
Next Best: #7 Marley's Freedom 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Amy's Challenge 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Mia Mischief 12-1 WON ($25.00)


7th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (Jackpot Single 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Precieuse 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Daddy Is a Legend 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Got Stormy 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Environs 8-1 4th


8th: Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Whitmore 4-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Bobby's Wicked One 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Do Share 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Warrior's Club 12-1 6th


P4 Grid:

5: 12 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
6: 2-5-7 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
7: 5-6-8-9 (A), 3-7-10 (B), - (C)
8: 1-4-7-12 (A), - (B), 6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x7x4 = 140 x .50 = $70
All A's: 1x3x4x4 = 48 x .50 = $24


9th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #12 The Black Album 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Casa Creed 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Social Paranoia 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Marquee Prince 10-1 11th


10th: Pat Day Mile (G3), 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Instagrand 6-5 8th
Best Value: #13 Hog Creek Hustle 30-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Mr. Money 12-1 WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #14 Last Judgement 5-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Dream Maker 15-1 3rd


11th: Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Bricks and Mortar 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #6 Clyde's Image 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Raging Bull 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Breaking the Rules 15-1 13th


12th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Improbable 6-1 (Closed 4.00-1) 5th
Next Best: #16 Game Winner 5-1 (Closed 6.80-1) 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Maximum Security 10-1 (Closed 4.50-1) WON-DQ'd to 17th
Super Add: #14 Win Win Win 15-1 (Closed 16.80-1) 10th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Tacitus 10-1 (Closed 5.80-1) 4th


P4 Grid:

8: 1-4-7-12 (A), - (B), 6-8 (C)
9: 7-12 (A), 2-4 (B), 3-10 (C)
10: 10-13 (A), 7-14 (B), 3-8 (C)
11: 12 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
12: 5-7-16 (A), - (B), 8-14-17 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x4x1x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 4x2x2x1x3 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

9: 2-4-7-12 (A), 3-8-10-13 (B), - (C)
10: 10-13 (A), 7-14 (B), 3-8 (C)
11: 12 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
12: 5-7-8-14-16 (A), - (B), 1-3-17 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x4x1x5 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 4x2x1x5 = 40 x .50 = $20


13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #2 Get the Prize 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Bandon Woods 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Admire 10-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Hoffa's Union 4-1 6th


14th: MSW, 3+, 9f

Best Value: #5 Tony Small 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Ranger Up Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Feliz the Fox 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Rotation 4-1 WON ($9.00)


P5 Grid:

10: 10-13 (A), 7-14 (B), 3-8 (C)
11: 12 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
12: 5-7-16 (A), 8-14 (B), 1-3-17 (C)
13: 2-10 (A), - (B), 6-11 (C)
14: 1-2-5-7 (A), - (B), 10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x2x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 2x1x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

11: 12 (A), 2-6 (B), 1-8 (C)
12: 5-7-16 (A), 8-14 (B), 1-3-17 (C)
13: 2-10 (A), - (B), 6-11 (C)
14: 2-5 (A), 1-7 (B), 10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[moses]

Steve, do you sleep during Derby week?

Anyway, I kind of like the pick 4 and pick 5 opportunities. Good luck!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Steve, do you sleep during Derby week?

Anyway, I kind of like the pick 4 and pick 5 opportunities. Good luck!

Moishe..

The fortnight here is a gauntlet, but exhilarating too. My favorite trip of the year and a special responsibility for ATR to bring the Derby to players and fans.

Besides the big multis, some standout spots to deep dive (Churchill, American Turf, Pat Day).. Weather not as good this morning as hoped. Let's have a safe, clean day.

Best of luck!

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

[ADJMK]

Derby fav I Want Revenge scratched in 2009 and in sloppy mess Mine That Bird won. History repeats 10 years later.
Of course the 7 was coming down. I bet him.

[tanner12oz]

What did the oaks derby double pay $1573246?

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

What did the oaks derby double pay $1573246?

$2072 for $0.50

Edit: Sorry that’s for the p3

[Alabama Stakes]

That deuce getting beat an inch in the 13th race was tough to swallow.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

That deuce getting beat an inch in the 13th race was tough to swallow.

Brutal for me bud

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Brutal for me bud

Even worse was that I thought he held when it was live....replay was ughhhhh

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Even worse was that I thought he held when it was live....replay was ughhhhh

I thought I had it bud

[$bill]

Steve,
Thanks for the push on Clyde's Image in the Turf Classic. Liked the1 underneath so had tri for $1.50.

Great job as usual.

Bill

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by $bill

Steve, Thanks for the push on Clyde's Image in the Turf Classic. Liked the 1 underneath so had tri for $1.50. Great job as usual.

Bill

Bill..

Thanks. Glad you scored! He's becoming a serious horse. That was one of several on the weekend (Got Stormy, Hog Creek Hustle, Upset Brewing, Bell's the One, Concrete Rose) that helped keep things afloat..

Hope everyone did well.. On to Baltimore.