7/22: Nick Tammaro's Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 7/22/2020
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 1- 1 st #2 SNAP DECISION 2 ND #3 CITY DREAMER 3 RD #7 BODES WELL

#2 SNAP DECISION is a winner of 5 straight and comes in off a big win to begin his 2020 campaign. #3 CITY
DREAMER was up for 2 nd when last seen late last year and classes up nicely with this bunch. #7 BODES
WELL moved aggressively to the lead last time out before being outfinished late and now goes 2 nd off a layoff.

Race 2- 1 st #3 BOX OF CHOCOLATES 2 ND #1 RED ZINGER 3 RD #2 WICKSTERS DREAM

#3 BOX OF CHOCOLATES made the first move into a hot pace last time out at Churchill and was collared late
by a Robertino Diodoro trainee. This son of Candy Ride now goes first off the claim by that same barn and
figures to get a contested pace to run at late. He looms a deserving favorite. #1 RED ZINGER ran a winning
race here at Saratoga early in the 2019 meet when he moved to the lead while wide before weakening late.
He’s now in the care of Jeremiah Englehart, which constitutes a major upgrade over prior trainer Gary
Contessa, and this barn is 28% with claimers on dirt off 180+ day breaks ($2.52 ROI). #2 WICKSTERS
DREAM returns from a layoff as well and exits a win against maidens last year at Gulfstream in a very salty
field. Among the also-rans is current Kentucky Derby contender King Guillermo. He will need a big effort to
win off the bench but should offer value at the windows.

Race 3- 1 st #1 CROSS BORDER 2 ND #4 RAPT 3 RD #6 BLEWITT

#1 CROSS BORDER is an absolute cinch in this field given his class edge and success here at Saratoga. He
was last seen in the Manhattan finishing 5 th beaten only a length and faces a handful of overmatched rivals
here. Look for him to win at a very short price. #4 RAPT was wide the whole way on a turf course where the
inside paths were best last time out. He now goes 2 nd off a lengthy break and should get a decent amount of
pace to run at late between the top pick and #6 BLEWITT. That son of Uncle Mo is the one to catch as he
tries turf for the first time and he does have one sibling to win on the grass. It would be a huge upset if he
wins, but his pace edge is notable.

Race 4- 1 st #5 MACHO JACK 2 ND #7 TENDERFOOT 3 RD #2 BREITHORN

#5 MACHO JACK returns off a lengthy layoff and has been training forwardly at Keeneland. He has a great
deal of speed and can get clear of this bunch without much of a problem. His price should be fair too given the
competitive nature of this field. #7 TENDERFOOT was very far back in a salty MSW at Churchill last time.
The winner of that race came back to earn a triple digit BSF when victorious here on Saturday and this son of
Graydar now takes a major class drop as a new gelding. Look for him in the late stages. #2 BREITHORN
goes 2 nd off a layoff for trainer Bill Mott. This barn is 25% with dirt sprinting maidens dropping in for tags over
the last 5 years ($3.72 ROI). His best dirt races certainly make him competitive in this spot.

Race 5- 1 ST #2 CRACK SHOT 2 ND #10 LUNA’S IN CHARGE 3 RD #8 MAXWELL ESQUIRE

#2 CRACK SHOT is a speedy son of Freud who set a psychotically fast pace last time before tiring late. He is
ideally suited to today’s distance and should be able to get clear of this bunch, even from the difficult inside
post. Either of his best races from last year would make him a handy winner in here. #10 LUNA’S IN
CHARGE is moving to turf for a barn that quietly had a pair of wins here from limited starters in 2019. He is
out of a turf sprint stake winning dam and should find his way to a cozy outside stalking spot in this affair. #8
MAXWELL ESQUIRE was overmatched last time out at Belmont and now goes 3 rd off a layoff for trainer
Christophe Clement. He is a late runner who’ll need the top pick to get hooked up in a pace battle, but his
trainer is 18% with older turf sprinters at Saratoga ($2.41 ROI).



Race 6- 1 st #6 DURKIN’S CALL 2 ND #7 JUST RIGHT 3 RD #4 O SHEA CAN U SEE

#6 DURKIN’S CALL is an ideal candidate for a cutback in distance as he battled gamely to a 3 rd place finish
last time out against much tougher. It would be nice if there was a little more speed in this field to set up his
late bid, but he should be a square price for successful connections. #7 JUST RIGHT is taking a very
suspicious class drop off a layoff for trainer Todd Pletcher. This son of Into Mischief is out of conditions, but
he’s being given away by a barn that is 1 of its last 9 with dirt starters at Saratoga racing for a tag for the first
time ($0.50 ROI). #4 O SHEA CAN U SEE is always vulnerable pace-wise given his deep closing style, but he
is currently in strong form and you can’t say that for many of his rivals. If things somehow develop in front of
him, he can be a late threat.

Race 7- 1 st #6 GAELIC GOLD 2 ND #10 SAINT MERE EGLISE 3 RD #9 KEPT WAITING

#6 GAELIC GOLD faced considerably tougher on debut at Tampa Bay Downs, as the runner-up in that field
came back to narrowly miss against MSW foes at Belmont in mid-June. This son of Giant’s Causeway now
faces NY breds and should have a bit more speed with a race behind her. #10 SAINT MERE EGLISE rallied
gamely into a fast pace on debut to snag the place dough and now returns off a layoff. Trainer Tom Bush is
24% with turf routers off 180+ day breaks ($5.28 ROI) and his barn appears to be heating up with an opening
day win after a poor Belmont meet. #9 KEPT WAITING made up ground late in her debut and now moves to
the care of Mike Miceli. She is another who should have more speed now that she has experience and you’ll
get value given the size and competitive nature of this field.

Race 8- 1 ST #2 WILD MEDAGLIAD’ORO 2 ND #6 LA HARA 3 RD #4 SMILE BRYAN

#2 WILD MEDAGLIAD’ORO is the one to catch from a cozy inside post and out-classes his rivals on paper as
well. He can get control of this race from the start if jockey John Velazquez so desires, and even a repeat of
his last would make him impossible to beat. #6 LA HARA was not as impressive in his 2 nd start as he was on
debut, but still got the job done against starter allowance foes. He now moves up in class off the bench for a
barn that is 29% with a $1.91 ROI when it comes to turf routers off 180+ day breaks. #4 SMILE BRYAN made
the first move last time and went on with it nicely to wallop a field of weaker runners. He has been given some
time since and takes a logical jump in class. His tactical speed is a major weapon.

Race 9- 1 st #3 SHARP STARR 2 ND #1 COURAGEOUS GIRL 3 RD #8 SINGULAR SENSATION

#3 SHARP STARR has a great deal of pedigree on her dam side that suggests another furlong will be right up
her alley. She faces winners for the first time today for a barn that is 24% with dirt starters exiting maiden wins
$2.66 ROI and trainer Horacio DePaz has been on a nice run over the last couple of months. #1
COURAGEOUS GIRL ran a game race last time out as she showed speed before fading late. She now has a
perfect inside post going this 9 furlong trip and should be a pace factor from the start. The price here should
be solid as well. #8 SINGULAR SENSATION came back from a layoff with a useful race last time out and now
returns to the site of her best effort to date. The outside post is a negative, but she has the ability to show
some zip out of the gate to help her get position.

Race 10- 1 st #5 CENTRAL PERK 2 ND #4 MANI PEDI 3 RD #2 ADRIATIC HOLIDAY

#5 CENTRAL PERK is dropping in class off a non-effort against weaker last time out. Trainer Linda Rice does
very well with second timers and seems to know what the proper class level is for this daughter of Central
Banker. #4 MANI PEDI showed enough life on debut to be given some consideration here. She lands in a
barn that generally outperforms expectations at Saratoga and is likely to have this maiden claimer ready to run.
Tepid nod in a skullbusting finale. #2 ADRIATIC HOLIDAY has not panned out as expected, but now takes a
big class drop at what should be her best distance. She need not improve much to contend here and will be a
fair price as well.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 41-11-5-11 $88.00

[ninetoone]

Thanks for posting this Steve. Made me take a second look at Tyler's horse in the last race. The 4 offered great value over the 3...they pretty much ran the same race last time and the 4 had much reason to improve. The Ortiz factor made the three 5 to 1 while the 4 floated up to 15-1! Crazy overlay. I won't post any more, it already looks like a redboard...but thanks. Love Saratoga and a great ride by Tyler!