5/14: Belmont Park ($40k P6 C/O)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: 75th Vagrancy H. (G3), F&M-4+, 6.5f (X-C P5, P3, DD)

4yo Bella Sofia makes seasonal debut here and figures tough with natural progression and ready to fire v. quality in-form foes like Miss Brazil & Frank's Rockette..

Most Likely: #5 Bella Sofia 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #2 Frank's Rockette 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Miss Brazil 3-1 5th


Cross Country P5 Grid:

3: 5 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
5: 1-2-4 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-5-6 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
10: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x2x6x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (4 in 3rd): 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4 w/ 1-2-4 w/ 2-3 w/ 2-5-6 w/ 1-2)


4th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f-Inner (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Good group with several interested in the front end which provides Rosario an opportunity to fly late with Happy Hill Lil whose efforts in September are more than good enough here..

Best Value: #7 Happy Hill Lil 9-2 WON ($19.80)
Next Best: #8 Miss Delicious 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Freedomofthepress 9-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Missing Link 4-1 8th


5th: 8th Runhappy (G3), 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Six pack of well seasoned sprinters with 34 W's between them. Drafted gets Jose Ortiz back who kept him closer to the pace in his signature Toboggan win in February..

Most Likely: #2 Drafted 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #1 Chateau 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Mr Phil SCR
Exotics Use: #5 Officiating 4-1 3rd


6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Fascinating set of fillies including seasonal debuts and first time North America invaders from Motion and Cox. Speaking of seasonal debuts and invading, feels notable that Neil Drysdale ships $900k 4yo Miss Bella Ciao to New York (!?) to make her first run as a 4yo. After breaking her maiden in an off/turf event at GP in February, Chad Brown gets Lay the Groundwork her first grass start and the half to Value Engineering (Lemon Drop Kid) figures to like it. Caironi returns as a 3yo for Ed Stanco's King of Prussia Stable with Joe Brocklebank at the helm while Mike Micelli serves a 30 day suspension..

Most Likely: #3 Lay the Groundwork 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #1a Baby Blythe 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Angel Palm 12-1 WON ($13.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Miss Bella Ciao 6-1 5th


7th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Jemography looms large first of claim for Rudy..

Most Likely: #1 Jemography 4-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Seven Lilies 5-2 7th
Best Value: #2 Prince of Pharoahs 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Masked Marauder 3-1 2nd


8th: 64th Man o' War (G1), 4+, 11f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Yibir & William Buick are back!

Most Likely: #3 Yibir 1-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Gufo 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Abaan 9-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Highland Chief 20-1 WON ($40.40)


P5 Grid:

4: 7-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
6: 1-3 (A), 7-8 (B), 9-10 (C)
7: 1-2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (9-10 in 6th): 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

5: 1-2 (A), 6 (B), 3-4 (C)
6: 1-3-7 (A), 6-8-10 (B), 5-9 (C)
7: 1-2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x3x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (3-4 in 5th; 5-9 in 6th): 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 + 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


9th: 70th Peter Pan (G3), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Perfect cast for traditional Belmont Stakes prep with group of soph stakes nibblers (Golden Glider, We the People, Cooke Creek) mixing it up with aspiring MDN-breakers (Set Sail, Complete Agenda, Western River) & ALW types (Electability, State Planning). Casse has Golden Glider on the Sir Winston route to the Belmont and 'other' Brisset Western River super impressive graduating on Arky Derby undercard. Mandella, not known for shipping, sets sail with Set Sail who will have to be reeled in under Rosario. Electability (Irad Ortiz) & We the People (Prat) both have speed to keep pace on from the outset. Fun edition of this 3yo standard..

Best Value: #6 Western River 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Electability 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Golden Glider 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 We the People 3-1 WON ($7.90)


10th: 45th Beaugay (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f-Inner (DD)

Return of Rougir marks 4th runner of the day that ran in '21 Breeder's Cup with Bella Sofia, Gufo & Yibir..

Most Likely: #1 Rougir 1-1 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #2 Lemista 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Runaway Rumour 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Stolen Holiday 8-1 3rd


11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T

As with so many state bred ALW's a wildly competitive and treacherous affair with 5 seasonal debuts and 4 going 2nd off the winter break. There's also the quandary of first out winners from Levine (Act of Congress) & Clement (Autumn Glory) that may be good enough at next level immediately..

Best Value: #6 Finest Work 5-1 WON ($17.80)
Next Best: #9 Palace Gossip 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Theodora Grace 8-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Rigby 8-1 9th


P6 Grid:

6: 1-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
9: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
11: 6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x3x2x2 = $144
All A's: 2x3x1x3x1x2 = $36


P5 Grid:

7: 1-2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
9: 2-5-6 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
10: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6-9 (A), - (B), 4-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (4-10 in 11th): 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-5-6 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
10: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6-9-10 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[Dahoss]

6th is a fantastic race. IMO Baby Blythe is very talented. Making it to the races is a challenge for her but if she brings her "A" game I think she's a stakes type. Betting her to win and a cold 1-1 double.

[Kasept]

[Dahoss]

Scratches really change the complexity of the 7th

[casp0555]

Thank you Steve for Happy Hill Lil!!

[opusone]

Nice call Steve.

[opusone]

Another nice call