Saratoga Two A Day

[Dahoss]

Glutton for punishment so let’s do this again. Same format, mythical $2 win/place wager on my “best bet” and “best longshot” of each day.

Day 1
Best bet- Race 6 #6 Yarrow
Horse is carrying a lot of weight because a lot of the people I respect have landed here but you have to watch the replay of his last. Not really Manny’s fault but he was well placed behind a slow pace, then lost his place and found himself dead last turning for home with run, but nowhere to go. He had to wheel out and was the only one making up any ground in a race dominated up front. Adds blinkers and should be in a much better spot when the real running starts.

Longshot- Race 4 #4 Star Devine
On paper this horse has no shot against these at this distance. But sometimes Maker needs a start to work his magic and there has to be a reason why he keeps her routing. She spent her entire career sprinting and Maker wants to keep her going long. She should be all alone on the front as long as Irad lets her go and if the inner is kind to speed she might take these a long way.

Good luck!

[moses]

Good luck this year, Dahoss. Interested to see the price on Star Devine. She could be the longest shot on the board but maybe Irad prevents that.

[jms62]

Looks like you are setting up to run the table.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Glutton for punishment so let’s do this again. Same format, mythical $2 win/place wager on my “best bet” and “best longshot” of each day.

Day 1
Best bet- Race 6 #6 Yarrow
Horse is carrying a lot of weight because a lot of the people I respect have landed here but you have to watch the replay of his last. Not really Manny’s fault but he was well placed behind a slow pace, then lost his place and found himself dead last turning for home with run, but nowhere to go. He had to wheel out and was the only one making up any ground in a race dominated up front. Adds blinkers and should be in a much better spot when the real running starts.

Longshot- Race 4 #4 Star Devine
On paper this horse has no shot against these at this distance. But sometimes Maker needs a start to work his magic and there has to be a reason why he keeps her routing. She spent her entire career sprinting and Maker wants to keep her going long. She should be all alone on the front as long as Irad lets her go and if the inner is kind to speed she might take these a long way.

Good luck!

Star Devine made an easy lead but she is not a router. Yarrow had a much better trip and won well, paying $8.80 to win and $4.20 to place

Meet Totals
$8 wagered
$13 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 2

Rain destroyed a good portion of what was a pretty good card. Treading lightly, although the dirt races that stayed intact are interesting.

Best bet: Race 9- #7 Unified Alliance
Goes first time for Morley after a game runner up finish last time. I think the 5 1/2 suits her a little better than the anticipated favorite and no reason she can't sit a good trip right behind leaders.

Longshot: Race 8- #5 Emerald Forest
Bit of a stab, but I want a price here, because I'm going to let Jacobson beat me until his horses show they are running better in NY and this one was only beaten a 1/2 length by Happy Farm last time. Goes first off the claim for the Kantermaci's who do a good job with limited stock and I can see this one sitting a good trip right off speed and making first run.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 2

Rain destroyed a good portion of what was a pretty good card. Treading lightly, although the dirt races that stayed intact are interesting.

Best bet: Race 9- #7 Unified Alliance
Goes first time for Morley after a game runner up finish last time. I think the 5 1/2 suits her a little better than the anticipated favorite and no reason she can't sit a good trip right behind leaders.

Longshot: Race 8- #5 Emerald Forest
Bit of a stab, but I want a price here, because I'm going to let Jacobson beat me until his horses show they are running better in NY and this one was only beaten a 1/2 length by Happy Farm last time. Goes first off the claim for the Kantermaci's who do a good job with limited stock and I can see this one sitting a good trip right off speed and making first run.

Right idea in the 8th, just took the wrong price. Unified Alliance went virtually wire to wire in the 7th paying $7.50 and $3.60.

Meet totals
$16 wagered
$24.10 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 3
Best bet: Race 6- #3 Kosuke
Bond barn had one run well yesterday so expect them to start heating up as they usually do here. This one has overachieved in first two and got a big scratch with the 4 coming out. I hope Jaime Torres is aggressive because maybe can make the front and take them all the way.

Longshot: Race 3- #8 No Deli
Ran like a horse who needed one first out. Made a good run around the turn, flattened a bit but that can be expected behind who I think Is a good horse. Expect a much improved effort here

[moses]

You might be on to something about the Bond barn getting hot. 45/1 horse almost took that 3rd race.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 3
Best bet: Race 6- #3 Kosuke
Bond barn had one run well yesterday so expect them to start heating up as they usually do here. This one has overachieved in first two and got a big scratch with the 4 coming out. I hope Jaime Torres is aggressive because maybe can make the front and take them all the way.

Longshot: Race 3- #8 No Deli
Ran like a horse who needed one first out. Made a good run around the turn, flattened a bit but that can be expected behind who I think Is a good horse. Expect a much improved effort here

There are no moral wins in gambling but I felt good about my picks yesterday despite neither winning. The Bond barn is awake, with as Moses mentioning his longshot first timer just missing in the 3rd, where my pick No Deli ran a much improved race, finishing 5th, but losing by less than a length in a blanket finish. Kosuke made the front, but was no match and finished 3rd.

Meet totals
$24 wagered
$24.10 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 4

Skull buster of a card, made even more difficult with the track.

Best bet: Race 6- #7 Dreamwithinadream
I think Hiles is very underrated as a trainer and IMO he came here on a mission. I know he was well beaten in his early races but look at who he was facing. There are no Kingsbarns in here. In fact, outside of Ringside who seemed like he was turf meant, no one has much dirt form. He ran much improved last time and I think he’s best here.

Longshot: Race 2- #1 Handle the Truth
Major stab here. It feels like there is some speed in here with the 3 and 5 and I think the 4 and 7 will be close. Her trainer Kerry Metivier doesn’t win much, but hes always one of the first trainers on the grounds since he lives local and always seems to pop with a horse at the meet. Her best fits here and I’m hoping she can pick them up late

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

There are no moral wins in gambling but I felt good about my picks yesterday despite neither winning. The Bond barn is awake, with as Moses mentioning his longshot first timer just missing in the 3rd, where my pick No Deli ran a much improved race, finishing 5th, but losing by less than a length in a blanket finish. Kosuke made the front, but was no match and finished 3rd.

Meet totals
$24 wagered
$24.10 returned

Couldn't help but revisit this comment in my mind watching the 2nd - hope you caught the tri.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 4

Skull buster of a card, made even more difficult with the track.

Best bet: Race 6- #7 Dreamwithinadream
I think Hiles is very underrated as a trainer and IMO he came here on a mission. I know he was well beaten in his early races but look at who he was facing. There are no Kingsbarns in here. In fact, outside of Ringside who seemed like he was turf meant, no one has much dirt form. He ran much improved last time and I think he’s best here.

Longshot: Race 2- #1 Handle the Truth
Major stab here. It feels like there is some speed in here with the 3 and 5 and I think the 4 and 7 will be close. Her trainer Kerry Metivier doesn’t win much, but hes always one of the first trainers on the grounds since he lives local and always seems to pop with a horse at the meet. Her best fits here and I’m hoping she can pick them up late

Pretty sure Dreamwithinadream is still running. Handle the Truth was 3rd, albeit a well beaten 3rd at 42-1.

Meet totals
$32 wagered
$24.10 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 5

Best bet: Race 7- #6 Golden Rocket
This overachiever came back last time with a nice race against stakes horses. She got a great ride that day and while she beat Runaway Rumour, that one did not look good the last 1/8. Even so, she won here last year and should get some pace to run at.

Longshot: Race 9- #1 Miss Domina
Should be a fair pace here, would like to see Jose drop back from the outside draw and make one run. She appears to be working well time wise since she's been here and is fresh.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 5

Best bet: Race 7- #6 Golden Rocket
This overachiever came back last time with a nice race against stakes horses. She got a great ride that day and while she beat Runaway Rumour, that one did not look good the last 1/8. Even so, she won here last year and should get some pace to run at.

Longshot: Race 9- #1 Miss Domina
Should be a fair pace here, would like to see Jose drop back from the outside draw and make one run. She appears to be working well time wise since she's been here and is fresh.

Golden Rocket got a nice ride by Jose Gomez but was ultimately not good enough finishing 4th. Miss Domina was just a bad pick.

Meet totals
$40 wagered
$24.10 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 6

Best bet: Race 3- #5 Highly Flammable
Race lost a little bit of its speed with the scratches but still should have plenty with the 6 and 8. I think Highly Flammable figures to drop into a nice trip behind the speed and will get first run. Was wide last out on a day when it seems like the rail was very strong.

Longshot: Race 4- #1 Mariah’s Fortune
This filly is 2 for 2 here and is not a turf horse. Gets back to dirt, could fall into a good spot inside behind the speed and thus is more of a play against some of the others who I don’t think are very good.

[Dahoss]

No time today but

Best bet: Race 6- #3 C Falls

Longshot: Race 7- #2 Big Night Out

[jms62]

Linda Rice wasn't she supposed to be suspended like when Obama was in office?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

Linda Rice wasn't she supposed to be suspended like when Obama was in office?

She's incredible.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 6

Best bet: Race 3- #5 Highly Flammable
Race lost a little bit of its speed with the scratches but still should have plenty with the 6 and 8. I think Highly Flammable figures to drop into a nice trip behind the speed and will get first run. Was wide last out on a day when it seems like the rail was very strong.

Longshot: Race 4- #1 Mariah’s Fortune
This filly is 2 for 2 here and is not a turf horse. Gets back to dirt, could fall into a good spot inside behind the speed and thus is more of a play against some of the others who I don’t think are very good.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

No time today but

Best bet: Race 6- #3 C Falls

Longshot: Race 7- #2 Big Night Out

Highly Flammable was an easy winner paying much less than I hoped at $5.20 and $3. Mariah's Fortune was sent hard for some reason and had little left late

C Falls was awful in a Linda Rice "if this doesn't prove what I'm doing, nothing will" race and Big Night Out was 4th.

Meet totals
$56 wagered
$32.30 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 8

Best bet: Race 8- #4 Scramble
This one just missed here last September in his debut against future stakes winner General Jim. His PP's are littered with stakes horses and he has held his own vs them. Last out against undefeated Chad Brown/Klaravich runner and future stakes winner Program Trading he was the first mover and was head to head with that rival around the turn while the eventual runner up waited and IMO sucked up 2nd. Can't fault Castellano as he was actually trying to win that race but with a more patient ride I think he can win here.

Longshot: Race 11- #8 Digital Future
This one is draw very well for a horse who resists kickback like he does. Won at this level two back, sharp work last week and should be in good range in the second flight