Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > Joe Silverio Simulcast Center
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-29-2006, 10:25 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default Santa Anita 12/30 Analysis

Two bombs that I want to get out of the way here.

Race 5: # 8 Pointing Star

Two sprints and then the stretch out is a patented move by trainers that are trying to teach the horse a thing or two in their first couple of races. McAnally is a bonus here. Also, TG wise, he paired his first two races and a pattern that is talked about within sheet players is the a move forward off paired numbers. Should love the stretch out and is 20/1 ML

Race 6: #7 Indian Chant

Now, I happen to know that Maggi Moss is GUNNING for the owner's title and is running any horse that is ready to run. That being said, this horse has a monster recent work and West is OUTSTANDING 1st claim and off a layoff. At 15/1 ML, this gelding is a GREAT play

Now for the play I have been waiting for:

Race 7: #2 Optari

Flores was a moran last time and never let this horse get clear, not sure he has much of a choice but he should have waited to go wide because he saw daylight, he exploded, only to get checked again and Flores just wrapped the horse up and basically wanted to chalk it up to another day. Anything above 5/2 is a gift on this horse

My plays:

5: 1,7,8,10,11,12
6: 1,7,10,11
7: 2

6x4x1 $24 per $1 (play 5 times so a total of $120)

Race 7: $200 Win 2

If for some reason I find more then the $320 I have here, I will be playing exactas(front and back) with both bombs above....but it might be a "run and shoot" day at the OTB tomorrow (Run up there and get the f out of there before I blow the money I want to wager above)
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-29-2006, 11:14 PM
smuthg's Avatar
smuthg smuthg is offline
Woodbine
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Springfield, MO
Posts: 1,010
Default

What about the #5- Wellnessfast in the the 5th? 2nd Start, 1st time Lasix... Really like your pick of Optari in the 7th...
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-29-2006, 11:26 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by smuthg
What about the #5- Wellnessfast in the the 5th? 2nd Start, 1st time Lasix... Really like your pick of Optari in the 7th...
Not a real big fan of the trainer. Probably will win when they drop him in for a high tag
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-30-2006, 09:00 AM
avance2000 avance2000 is offline
Tropical Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 285
Default

I really like Squallaciuos in the G1 La Brea Stakes.
I see this as one of those races where three connections (Downthedustyroad, River's Prayer, and Win McCool) are going to try to steal the race from the front, and a race that does not appear to have an abundance of early speed will develop into a three-horse speed duel anyway. The fast-closing Squallacious should be there to pick up the pieces.
Her race this spring at 7f (the distance of the La Brea) is the strongest past performance of any of these, and her recent works are strong.
The long layoff does not bother me that much because of the strong works, and because of how sharp she was in her debut, which tells me she is the type that can get fit and ready off a series of fast works.
She is my top pick today.
__________________
the great avance has spoken.

Last edited by avance2000 : 12-30-2006 at 09:19 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-30-2006, 09:07 AM
Gander Gander is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,336
Default

I have never seen Squallucious race before so I cant really get a feel for her. I kind of disagree with most because I see a lot of early speed. The 3 that were mentioned (Win McCool, Downadustyroad and Rivers Prayer) as well as Diplomat Lady who breaks from the rail and will have no choice but to gun.

This is a very tough race for me to want to throw down a big bet. I missed Win McCool the day she won at a huge price and it killed me because I had played her the 3 times she lost before that. Not easy to want to take the probable 7/2 or 4/1 on Win McCool shipping out west facing a few toughies.

I see a lot more easier races at Aqu today.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-30-2006, 04:50 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Alright ladies and gentlemen, we are LOCKED AND LOADED for races 5,6,7. Good luck to anyone jumping along
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:13 PM
2MinsToPost's Avatar
2MinsToPost 2MinsToPost is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,760
Default

I just played a small Pick 4, and a win bet on Win McCool plus the 2 in the 7th

2345/27/4/248

$24 for shizits and giggles
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:21 PM
2MinsToPost's Avatar
2MinsToPost 2MinsToPost is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,760
Default

Scav I ain't rootin against your ticket man, but

I played the 9 to Win and Place in this race, the 5th. Got a hunch
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:24 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost
Scav I ain't rootin against your ticket man, but

I played the 9 to Win and Place in this race, the 5th. Got a hunch
Your my boy, don't worry....you should get down for $24 on my posted pick three ticket, pays between $200 and infinite, especially if I can get the 8 to run here
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:27 PM
hoovesupsideyourhead's Avatar
hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
"The Kentucky Killing Machine"
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: florida
Posts: 16,277
Default

i here to mush ya up....who ya like im going 5 tri box 4 level red ,10 forward commitment 8 point of victory 1 southern most point...
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:28 PM
Gander Gander is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,336
Default

I really like Baffert's 11 horse (Silver Light) here. Hes taking his time with this horse and he was obviously well meant in his debut at 9/5. Look for him to run huge today.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:29 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

11 horse......in the tri box
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:30 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
My plays:

5: 1,7,8,10,11,12
6: 1,7,10,11
7: 2

6x4x1 $24 per $1 (play 5 times so a total of $120)

Race 7: $200 Win 2
5: 1,7,8,10,11,12
6: 1,7,10,11
7: 2

for price cut and pasteing
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:36 PM
hoovesupsideyourhead's Avatar
hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
"The Kentucky Killing Machine"
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: florida
Posts: 16,277
Default

i dont care for the 11...he would have a better jock if hes the shizzy
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:36 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default dajkfl;sjakldj;fsa;lfkdja;sdk

f'n chalk
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:38 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Tough to make up ground when these dipsh its let Victor go .48 up front.
Keep an eye on that 8 horse, decent showing for all the problems he had to today, on the turn I thought he had a decent shot and just faded a little bit
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:46 PM
hoovesupsideyourhead's Avatar
hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
"The Kentucky Killing Machine"
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: florida
Posts: 16,277
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Keep an eye on that 8 horse, decent showing for all the problems he had to today, on the turn I thought he had a decent shot and just faded a little bit
my thoughts exactly..
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:52 PM
hoovesupsideyourhead's Avatar
hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
"The Kentucky Killing Machine"
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: florida
Posts: 16,277
Default

going 2/3/5/1/4 with 2/8 with 5 with 2/3/1/8 pick four..
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 12-30-2006, 05:59 PM
Gander Gander is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,336
Default

I love the 2 in this race- Like New Money. Betting to win and over three horses in the exacta. Here we go:

$80 win 2
$20 ex 2-1
$15 ex 2/5,7
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 12-30-2006, 06:07 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default unbelievable

I have to start giving in to using the chalk sometimes......
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:29 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.