Scav's Saturday Win Plays

[Scav]

Alright, here we go for this weekend….I have actually organized these via central standard time because I plan on putting $100-$500 to win on all these horses, unless I just get completely busted, WHICH AINT GONNA HAPPEN. The full Arlington Park anaylsis on another thread.

1)12:37pm: Woodbine, Race 2, #7 Nooligan(7/2 ML)
a. This horse last time cost me a BOAT load of money. Torres put on his WORST RIDE OF ALL TIME and I told myself I would play this horse back with a different rider and a rise in class. If this horse gets an outside trip in his last race, he wins the race by 4. Instead, Torres kept him on the rail the whole time and was checked, stopped, pulled up and still got 3rd by ½ lengths, and it was closer then that because two jumps later he was in front after the wire. So I get my DRF Stable mail and BOOM, not only a new rider, but a WHOLE NEW CIRCUIT, and while it really isn’t a huge rise in class, the purse is DOUBLE what he would be running for at Arlington even after you exchange from Canadian into American, talk about spot picking. My guess is you get closer to 2/1 in this race, keep on eye on the 1st race and see if there is value in the DD, if not STRAIGHT UNLOAD…1st best bet of the day

2)2:54pm: Delaware, Race 8, #5 Amandatude (4/1 ML)
a. I think you are going to get every bit of the 4/1 ML on this horse because of WLA and RE in this race. RE was a hanging mule last out at Pimilco and quite honestly, I am not exactly sure WLA is the goods(while I will be cheering for her on a personal side, needs to be 4 or 5/1 before I can her). Amandatude is improving, she has had a lot of races which worries me but I think she explodes through this last pair of 4’s that she has thorograph wise. She might go gate to wire here because there isn’t a BOATLOAD of speed, which will hurt horses like WLA and Gasia. Amandatude like Delaware, which we all know can be quirky….2nd best bet of the day

3)2:59pm: Churchill Downs, Race 6 #1 Brillant (4/1 ML)
a. 4/1 ML is NUTS in this horse, absolutely absurd. Firstly, if Storm Treasure runs his number on the turf as he does on dirt, the race is over. I DO NOT think he will do that and I think he is going to take action in this spot. Brillant has looked ULTRA impressive on the turf, has an uncharacteristic work from the trainer coming into this race, I don’t think the screws can be any tighter for Brillant. I do worry about Albarado but this is the type of horse that suits him well, one that can go 4W and still have something in reserve. That being said, I also like Pletcher’s horse Mercurius. While my win money will be dispersed on Brillant, Mercurius will be on the pick three ticket I am starting in race 4, and in next pick three I am starting in race 5, along with Brillant.

4)3:33pm: Churchill Downs, Race 7 #7 Circle the World(4/1 ML)
a. Not sure what odds you will get on this horse but I think he wins for fun. Pletcher would have never entered this horse in this race if High Cotton was the nuts and I personally think he is going to bounce to the moon, and possibly continue to Venus. While Circle is short on experience, talent is immense. I think he gets an unbelievable trip with the brilliant Bejarano, but I think this can be seen by almost every handicapper looking at the race. He is the half brother to the horse that caused all sorts of problems yesterday, Circular Quay. 3rd best bet of the day

5)3:43pm: Belmont Park, Race 8 #1 Brunilda(5/2 ML)
a.Thorograph wise, this horse is right there, and ran a great race off the shelf. I love Javy and I think you might get 5/2 because Johnny V is on Stormina and I think she will get played. This is a rough race but Brunilda’s style is the key, she should get a good trip.

6)4:29pm: Arlington Park, Race 8 #7 Annika Lass (2/1 ML)
a. This horse is here for ONE REASON AND ONE REASON ONLY, WIN. Get the Grade 3 stamped on her. I love the fact that is has drawn so many horses (Janks is expected to scratch one, and probably both). Annika has almost always been in traffic trouble in a lot of her races, I THINK Emigh will put the perfect ride on her this time and keep her 4W the whole trip and just EXPLODE out of the turn. I do worry about Ebony Breeze nipping me on the wire though

7)4:50pm: Hollywood Park, Race 4 #4 AP Warrior (5/2 ML)
a.I like Flores on this horse, I think he fits him well and he should get the perfect stalking trip in this race. HE IS GOOD ENOUGH TO WIN ANY RACE ON DIRT, and possibly even on turf for that matter. This being said, I think he is a nutcase. Hopefully Flores will show him who is boss. This horse also seems to run his best off a layoff, so I am expecting a big show on Saturday from him.

8)5:00pm: Arlington Park, Race 9, #1 Fongtastic(3/1 ML)
a.You are going to get NOTHING near 3/1 on this horse, will most likely be near 6/5 or 7/5. This being said, that is a bargain. Double D has this habit of entering nut horses after a huge stakes race because EVERYONE WILL BE THERE TO SEE HIM IN THE WINNER CIRCLE. Now that isn’t the reason he is going to win, but his last two works are basically screaming, “YO, I am the nuts on Saturday” There also isn’t much in the race either. Play to win and also single in the late pick three and four. 4th best bet of the day

9)5:13pm: Churchill Downs, Race 10, #1 Buzzard’s Bay (3/1 ML)
a.While I normally wouldn’t play a horse like this off of what is a HUGE top, Ellis is no dumb cookie. He could have easily stayed for a free 300k purse in California but the horse is obviously doing speculator. I do worry that Love of Money will get the lone lead but hopefully this is one of those time that Prado will put an arties chiller at Pimilco type ride on this horse. The other concern is that Dutrow has been running his trap about this horse and we all remember what he was saying about Saint Liam before the BC, he wouldn’t shut up about him and he was right.

[Bigsmc]

Circle the World is scratched.

[Scav]

AAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHh

Maybe High Cotton won't bounce now...a no play race for me most likely

[Scav]

Another **** ****ing Riding....unreal....0-1

[sumitas]

mb sea can compete in the foster. wv and mb sea in the ex.

[Scav]

Absolutely brutal...I promise never to post a horse I like again....

[Gander]

Did any of them win? Did you bet them all?

[Scav]

ONE winner, 4/5

Absolultely brutal

[Kasept]

Easy Scav..

Brilliant got it done in a tough group. Shouldn't have been THAT short a price... AP Warrior, Annika Lass and Amandatude ALL ran well.. Circle scratched.. Not a terrible set of tabs at all...

[Scav]

When all you do is play win money it is...LOL

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Scav

When all you do is play win money it is...LOL

To me, in this day and age, unless you're really adept at spotting and hammering nice value plays, (9-2 and higher), there's no reason to be playing win bets only as a wagering approach. And the ones you were working today were too short priced going in, IMO, to be worthwhile as win bets. There's too narrow a margin for error...

You HAVE to get probably 4 of 5 of those kind of horses in the winner's circle to make the approach pay off whereas hitting the Susan's Girl tri and Mint Julep exotics covered everything I went after today and then some despite missing badly in 5 of the 8 plays I made...

[Gander]

I had a horrible day as well. I even bet a few exactas where I ran 1st and
3rd. I looked at tomorrow and have 4 horses that kind of caught my eye that could win at 5/1 and higher.

Bel 6th- Tuwawi (sneaky speed, gets a dry track, may move up. Live rider)

Bel 8th- Little Buttercup (may sneak off at 5/1 if there arent a ton of scratches, does well when in against state friends)

Bel 9th-King Glacken (Should love the strecthout on the weeds, hot trainer & jockey)

Hol 5th- In Certain Circles (Gets dream set up behind the speeds, love this trainer in these kinds of spots)