New Zealand Derby

[_ed_]

The New Zealand Derby is just over a month away and, probably more because I'm bored than that I might genuinely believe it would be of interest to anyone else, I thought I might write a bit about who I think are the leading contenders at this stage.

MAGIC CAPE
Magic Albert (AUS) - Cape City (NZ) (by Kaapstad)
6:4-0-1
The winner of the G1 2000 Guineas at Riccarton in November, Magic Cape is a deserving favourite for the race in futures betting at the moment. He had his first start since that G1 victory on Saturday in the G3 Wellington Stakes at Trentham and produced a remarkable performance to come from last on the home turn, switch to the very outside and get up by a nose on the line. I have my doubts about the quality of the field he beat, but it was extremely impressive.

A $1,000,000 offer from Hong Kong was rejected, and rightly so since it seems he should easily win plenty more than that for his owners here. A Derby victory for Magic Cape would also produce a nice story in that he is trained by Shaune Ritchie, who was the young strapper of the champion Bonecrusher, who won the Derby 22 years ago.

BRUT FORCE
Giant's Causeway (USA) - Champagne (NZ) (by Zabeel)
5:2-0-0
A son of Giant's Causeway and G1 winner (and Melbourne Cup runner-up) Champagne, Brut Force is one of the best-bred horses running in New Zealand and one of the best-looking too. A $900,000 yearling, the colt was disappointing in his first three starts, finishing nowhere near the money. Since then though he has learnt what racing's all about and won two in a row in quite an emphatic manner.

His breeding and his imposing frame suggest the 2400m will be no problem at all, and with the big reputation he has in the stable it seems he is definitely worthy of second-favouritism at this point.

STOLEN THUNDER
Thunder Gulch (USA) - Just Love Me (NZ) (by Spectacular Love)
4:2-1-0
This is a supremely talented individual. Coming from last to win his maiden, Stolen Thunder followed it up with what was set to be an even more impressive victory last start. Not handling the rain-affected ground, Stolen Thunder still produced easily the fastest last 600m of the day to move from near-last to first in what seemed to be only a matter of strides.

From there though it all went wrong as he drifted out and seemingly thought he was in a steeplechase as he seemed to jump an invisible fence in the last 50m of the race. He somehow still held on to win, but with only two months remaining before one of the most important races of a New Zealand horse's life he has an awful lot to learn.

UBERALLES
Giant's Causeway (USA) - Ethereal (NZ) (by Rhythm)
4:1-1-0
The first foal of Caulfield-Melbourne Cup double winner Ethereal, Uberalles has shown in her limited career to date that she has inherited a fair share of her mother's ability. As the distances have increased so has the quality of her performance, and she is certainly a legitimate contender.

The only thing going against her is history - fillies have a very poor record in the Derby. If they instead target the Oaks, this filly will be difficult and maybe even close to impossible to beat against her own sex.

Others:
Castlereagh (3:1-0-0): Big and hugely impressive winner in maiden company last start.
Benedict (6:1-1-0): Has shown tons of ability at times and has a big reputation but lacks anything resembling consistency.
Mettre En Jeu (7:3-2-1): Another really good looking galloper and a son of proven Derby sire Montjeu, this highly-rated horse lost some of his followers when beaten without excuses in a G2 on Boxing Day but is too good to be ignored.

Well I enjoyed writing that, hopefully some of you find it interesting to read as well.

[_ed_]

Saturday saw the running of the Waikato Guineas - the Santa Anita Derby or Lingfield Derby Trial of New Zealand racing. It was built up by all the press as the race to make the Derby picture clearer. The race saw leading contenders Stolen Thunder, Mettre En Jeu and filly Uberalles clash for the first time and surely one of them was going to stamp his or her superiority over the others in the 2000m event.

But in analysing the race no one took into account the possibility of a track bias. On a day in which the first horses around the home turn were invariably the first past the post, Stolen Thunder finished ninth, Uberalles seventh and Mettre En Jeu third as 35-1 outsider Blimey O'Reilly led from wire to wire.

A last-start winner of a maiden at Gisborne (Gisborne form is usually more commonly found in joke books than a stakes winner's past performances), Blimey O'Reilly gave his owners and trainers their greatest ever thrill and gave everyone else a feeling of great confusion and the strong desire to shake our heads in disbelief.

Less than 4 weeks away from the Derby now and everyone is desperately hoping that it will become clearer some time before March 3.