They've gone over the horse with a fine-tooth comb and they haven't been able to find anything wrong with him. That doesn't mean that there couldn't be some problem that has gone undiagnosed. But so far, they haven't been able to find anything. That's why they brought him back so soon. He appeared to come out of his last race fine so they figured they would find any easy spot for him in the hpes that he would get his confidence back with an easy win. I'm sure this race came up a little quicker than they would have liked, but it's not easy to find an allowance race for a horse like him.

By the way, they scoped him after his last two races and he scoped fine. I don't know about today.

His job with Declans Moon after the injury was one of the worst I have ever seen. One of the best in so-cal? Well...not really saying much considering we are talking about southern california (racing there has gone to hell). What good horses has he had recently...please enlighten me.

LOL

One of the funniest posts I have seen.


Someone telling me he is a better trainer than me. Too damn funny.


Newsflash genius...I am not a horse trainer. I suppose I should gloat that I am a better commodities trader than Ellis huh?

Jessica, I know that you know that Ellis is a great trainer. But I bet you didn't know this: I believe it was on ESPN when they were covering the Stephen Foster that they said that Ellis' lifetime win percentage in graded stakes races is 40%. I think that is the highest of any trainer in the country.

Your argument here is beyond ridiculous. You are telling me the fact that the moronic betting public ridiculously overbets him and he goes off at stupidly low odds means he was well placed? Thas a new one. Also very scary thinking on your part.

Ellis has over and over talked up this horse...and the betting public has bought into it. I actually love when the idiot opens his mouth....get great value on other horses.

Yes..he went off at 2-5 in a comeback allowance race.....people who bet him that race should be required to wear safety helmets when they walk from the couch to the kitchen.

How did he run in the PAt O'brien and his next two races where only people who needed losing tickets to offset signers bet him?

He was quoted in the DRF THIS YEAR. Go back and look for yourself.....it was pointed out to me by a few different people.....even I couldnt make something that funny up.

Last year he had Buzzard's Bay who won the $500,000 Oaklawn Handicap. In 2005, he won the Indiana Derby with Don't Get Mad. DGM also ran 4th in the Kentucky Derby. In 2004, he had the Champion 2 year old(Declan's Moon). In 2004, he ran 4th in the Kentucky Derby with Atswhatimtalkinabout. Eliis ran 4th in the Ky Derby two years in a row. That's not too bad for a guy that only has 40 horses.

Ellis was the one who picked out Action This Day for B Watne Hughes. ATD won the Breeder's Cup Juvenille.

Buzzards bay got an EASY trip/lead at OP. A lot of other horses could have won with the same set up. Was not an impressive race. The real Buzzards Bay showed his true colors next race.....where is the horse now?

Don't Get Mad was actually a horse I liked. But please...the Indiana Derby????? Was an ok horse.

Running 4th in the derby is ok..nothing to brag about. Losing to the worst derby winner in the history of derbies (Giacomo) isnt something to brag about.

Yeah...Action This Day was a nice horse...please...the horse was the worst BC winner ever. Horse didnt do **** before and was horrible after.....lightning struck the day he won the BC race....and it was Mandella ( a solid trainer) who trained the horse...not Ellis....

SO far you have given me Buzzards Bay.....Don't Get Mad....And to a lesser extent ATD. Sounds like the old tugboat needs to swing around..pick these 3 horses up...and head off to the Island of Misfit Horses with this group...

You would make several hundred thousand dollars a year betting horses if there wasn't a high correllation between a horse being well placed and the horse's odds. I'm not saying the general public is perfect. They make mistakes all the time. They may have over-bet DM a little bit, but not by much. What odds do you think he should have gone off at in each one of those races this year? In his first race back, what odds should he have gone off at? Maybe he shouldn't have been 2-5. Maybe he should have been 4-5. That's hardly a bad spot to run a horse. In the Pat O'Brien, maybe he shouldn't have been 3-2. Maybe he should have been 2-1 or 5-2. That's hardly running a horse over his head.

If you think DM should have been 10-1 or 15-1 in those races and you think the public makes mistakes like this, then you would make hundres of thousands of dollars betting the horses every year. Do you know what kind of edge you would have if there were 10-1 shots going off at 7-5? If there were 10-1 shots going off at 7-5, you could retire.

This was from Oak Tree Barn Notes in the beginning of October 2006:


From Oak Tree Barn Notes a couple of days ago:

. . . Ron Ellis is hopeful Declan's Moon can make the Strub series at Santa Anita starting on Dec. 26. "Long range plans are for the big races at Santa Anita," the trainer said after the male 2-year-old champion of 2004 worked three furlongs at Hollywood Friday in :35.80.






Pretty sad huh....guy doesnt even know his horse was too old for the race...

I have actually done very well betting against DM since his comeback....I love it that people actually bet on him...more value on others...couldnt be happier betting wise...

Caught Dixiemeister when he drowned DM....exacta was pretty damn good also with Gomez horse in 2nd....

zito sucks, ellis is great.......only at derbytrail.com

I dont get this place at times?

Hall of Fame Trainer/Good Guy= Sucks

Average at best Trainer/Idiot= Great


Must be something in the water over here...

Buzzard's Bay hardly got an easy trip in the Oaklawn Handicap? He went the half in :46 3/5. Do you know how fast that is at Oaklawn? In most of those stakes races at Oaklawn, they go the half in :48 or slower. Oaklawn plays different than most tracks. You can pretty much subtract a second from whatever they run the half-mile in there. When Afleet Alex won the Arkansas derby, they ran the half in :48. In the Rebel this year, they ran the half in :47 4/5. When Rockport Harbor won that stakes race there, he went the half in :48. You rarely see horses run the half in under :47 there. When they do, they aren't around at the finish.

Buzzard's Bay obviously did not fire in the Stephen Foster. Did you notice that he hasn't run since then. That's usually a sign that something was amiss. Buzzard's Bay is on the comeback trail right now. He'll be ready to run in about 6 weeks.

With regard to Action This Day, the only thing that is important is that it was a great buy. They bought him relatively cheap as a yearling. I don't remeber the excat amount but I think it was around $150,000. He won the $1 million BC Juvenille and then they made an additional $1-2 million on his stud deal. I think Ellis can be proud of picking out a horse for $150,000 that returned his owner about $2-3 million. It doesn't really matter whether you or I think ATD was a good horse or not.

That was the mistake of the person who wrote the article. Read Ellis' quote. Ellis didn't mention the Strub Series. Ellis said, "The long range plans are for the big races at Santa Anita." Ellis did not mention the Strub Series. The person who wrote the article was the one who mentioned the Strub Series. The writer obviously forget how old DM was.

I can assure you that Ellis never mentioned the Strub Series.

I like them both.

that one there doesn't quote ellis, but i remember a quote where, he indeed, said he was pointing for the strub series. i remember clearly discussing it with somebody and saying it would have been nice if the reporter would have covered for him. it might have been in the print version of drf. i remember it very well. i thought at the time it was very tacky that the reporter didn't have his back. i think it was with gmb, i'm sure it was (is gmb on this board?). i remember gmb asking why would any reporter want to cover for him, he's a jerk. then greg said he wouldn't let ellis train a mule, never mind a thoroughbred.

anyway, i don't care. i just find it funny that zito got his a$$ handed to him on this board, and ron ellis is getting so much support. if you want to support ron ellis with a couple of 4th place derby finishes, and bust zito because he's only WON a few triple crown races, it's just backasswards. in my humble opinion, the difference between those two trainers is night and day, and i don't think i need to state which one i think is in the dark.

If I recall, there was only one poster on here "handing Zito's ass to him." :confused:

By the way, Buzzard's Bay went the opening quarter in :22 4/5 in the Oaklawn race. He didn't have an easy lead either. He had a horse breathing down his neck the whole time. He had a horse within a length of him the whole time. He goes the quarter in :22 4/5, the half in :46 3/5 and he has a horse within 3/4 of a length of him at the half. He ended up winning the race by 6 lengths. It was one of the best performances of the year. It was an incredibly strong race. Practically every horse in that race came back to win graded stakes races. I think there were 5 or 6 horses in that race that came back and won big races. I think Andromeda's Hero was the only horse in that race that didn't come back to win.

Dude, you can't be serious. Buzzard Bay's OP romp was one of the most impressive races of the entire year. He ran his guts out that day.