Declans Moon
 

Hes in big trouble if he cant do anything in that spot. Ran dead last

Does anyone know if Declans Moon is a bleeder, he just stops so badly when the real running starts

Eliis was right.... that was a nice spot for a confidence booster...

Whos confidence was he boosting, Einsteins? Brutal

I would imagine he's finished now... unless they want to explore the low level claiming ranks at Mountaineer..

I wonder what they will do with him? Hes obviously not half the horse he was earlier in his career.

This horse has been an overhyped 4 legged trash can since he came back from his injury. His trainer is beyond incompetent (could most likely start a whole thread on how bad a trainer he is/how stupid the man is). He ran the horse way over his head for too long.....there is something very obviously wrong with DM....retire the damn horse...

You seriously can't be talking about Ellis...

No doubt, since the injury hes been nothing at all.

I think Ellis put some high expectations on himself hyping the horse as much as he did. I know he was a champion 2 year old, but Declan has had some serious setbacks. To be as high as they still are on the horse is being unrealistic.

Why can't I. I dont think he is much of a trainer. Running this horse in spots where he has no business isnt exactly a bright move. Then bringing him back pretty quickly when something is obviously wrong doesnt qualify as smart.

As far as the "stupid man" comment.....I read this year where he said he was looking forwards to running DM in the Strub Series this year...you know the series for 3 yr olds turning 4 in 2007. Last I checked DM was a 5 yr old in 2007. Now either he didnt know the conditions for the series (clueless) or he is just a stupid individual. Either way.....doesn't look to good....

The scintillating replay...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtrEIhlu97A

I dont what is more pathetic.....how DM ran...or Ron Ellis for runnning this horse back too soon.

God is he an awful trainer......

A tough day for a good trainer.

A tough day for an overrated and clueless trainer.

Agreed. It looked to me like the horse may have displaced. He flung his head way up in the air as they came off the turn and into the stretch.

Yea,he hasn't just lost a cylinder(like B DEREK.)HE IS BLEEDING ,OR LOSING HIS AIR.

Yeah, he sure is terrible. That's why his win percentage was 29% in 2005 and then 22% last year. He's got one of the highest win percentages of any trainer and he is one of the best trainers in Southern California. His reputation is impeccable.

By the way, if he's so clueless then how is it that he has so consistently moved horses up off the claim over the years? He's been doing that for over 20 years. He even move them up off of guys like Mullins.

Stoner , Give it a rest. Ron Ellis is a much better trainer than you.

He's been running him over his head? The horse has been the favorite in every race he's run in since he came back. In his first race back, he went off at 2-5 and lost by a nose. In the Pat O'Brien, he went off at 3-2. In his next two races, he went off at 5-2. Then today he went off at 4-5.

Rupe, he didnt look good today. Hes always going to take money, he was 2 yo champion after all. Im not questioning what Ellis has done with the horse, Im sure he has questions himself as to why the horse is running this way.

Show me the interview where Ellis said he was going to run the horse in the Strub series this year. I don't believe he ever said that. That was the plan last year, not this year. Ellis knows the conditions of the Strub Series and every series for that matter. He is one of the sharpest trainers when it comes to being aware of conditions.

They've gone over the horse with a fine-tooth comb and they haven't been able to find anything wrong with him. That doesn't mean that there couldn't be some problem that has gone undiagnosed. But so far, they haven't been able to find anything. That's why they brought him back so soon. He appeared to come out of his last race fine so they figured they would find any easy spot for him in the hpes that he would get his confidence back with an easy win. I'm sure this race came up a little quicker than they would have liked, but it's not easy to find an allowance race for a horse like him.

By the way, they scoped him after his last two races and he scoped fine. I don't know about today.

His job with Declans Moon after the injury was one of the worst I have ever seen. One of the best in so-cal? Well...not really saying much considering we are talking about southern california (racing there has gone to hell). What good horses has he had recently...please enlighten me.

LOL

One of the funniest posts I have seen.


Someone telling me he is a better trainer than me. Too damn funny.


Newsflash genius...I am not a horse trainer. I suppose I should gloat that I am a better commodities trader than Ellis huh?

Jessica, I know that you know that Ellis is a great trainer. But I bet you didn't know this: I believe it was on ESPN when they were covering the Stephen Foster that they said that Ellis' lifetime win percentage in graded stakes races is 40%. I think that is the highest of any trainer in the country.

Your argument here is beyond ridiculous. You are telling me the fact that the moronic betting public ridiculously overbets him and he goes off at stupidly low odds means he was well placed? Thas a new one. Also very scary thinking on your part.

Ellis has over and over talked up this horse...and the betting public has bought into it. I actually love when the idiot opens his mouth....get great value on other horses.

Yes..he went off at 2-5 in a comeback allowance race.....people who bet him that race should be required to wear safety helmets when they walk from the couch to the kitchen.

How did he run in the PAt O'brien and his next two races where only people who needed losing tickets to offset signers bet him?

He was quoted in the DRF THIS YEAR. Go back and look for yourself.....it was pointed out to me by a few different people.....even I couldnt make something that funny up.

Last year he had Buzzard's Bay who won the $500,000 Oaklawn Handicap. In 2005, he won the Indiana Derby with Don't Get Mad. DGM also ran 4th in the Kentucky Derby. In 2004, he had the Champion 2 year old(Declan's Moon). In 2004, he ran 4th in the Kentucky Derby with Atswhatimtalkinabout. Eliis ran 4th in the Ky Derby two years in a row. That's not too bad for a guy that only has 40 horses.

Ellis was the one who picked out Action This Day for B Watne Hughes. ATD won the Breeder's Cup Juvenille.

Buzzards bay got an EASY trip/lead at OP. A lot of other horses could have won with the same set up. Was not an impressive race. The real Buzzards Bay showed his true colors next race.....where is the horse now?

Don't Get Mad was actually a horse I liked. But please...the Indiana Derby????? Was an ok horse.

Running 4th in the derby is ok..nothing to brag about. Losing to the worst derby winner in the history of derbies (Giacomo) isnt something to brag about.

Yeah...Action This Day was a nice horse...please...the horse was the worst BC winner ever. Horse didnt do **** before and was horrible after.....lightning struck the day he won the BC race....and it was Mandella ( a solid trainer) who trained the horse...not Ellis....

SO far you have given me Buzzards Bay.....Don't Get Mad....And to a lesser extent ATD. Sounds like the old tugboat needs to swing around..pick these 3 horses up...and head off to the Island of Misfit Horses with this group...

You would make several hundred thousand dollars a year betting horses if there wasn't a high correllation between a horse being well placed and the horse's odds. I'm not saying the general public is perfect. They make mistakes all the time. They may have over-bet DM a little bit, but not by much. What odds do you think he should have gone off at in each one of those races this year? In his first race back, what odds should he have gone off at? Maybe he shouldn't have been 2-5. Maybe he should have been 4-5. That's hardly a bad spot to run a horse. In the Pat O'Brien, maybe he shouldn't have been 3-2. Maybe he should have been 2-1 or 5-2. That's hardly running a horse over his head.

If you think DM should have been 10-1 or 15-1 in those races and you think the public makes mistakes like this, then you would make hundres of thousands of dollars betting the horses every year. Do you know what kind of edge you would have if there were 10-1 shots going off at 7-5? If there were 10-1 shots going off at 7-5, you could retire.

This was from Oak Tree Barn Notes in the beginning of October 2006:


From Oak Tree Barn Notes a couple of days ago:

. . . Ron Ellis is hopeful Declan's Moon can make the Strub series at Santa Anita starting on Dec. 26. "Long range plans are for the big races at Santa Anita," the trainer said after the male 2-year-old champion of 2004 worked three furlongs at Hollywood Friday in :35.80.






Pretty sad huh....guy doesnt even know his horse was too old for the race...

I have actually done very well betting against DM since his comeback....I love it that people actually bet on him...more value on others...couldnt be happier betting wise...

Caught Dixiemeister when he drowned DM....exacta was pretty damn good also with Gomez horse in 2nd....

zito sucks, ellis is great.......only at derbytrail.com

I dont get this place at times?

Hall of Fame Trainer/Good Guy= Sucks

Average at best Trainer/Idiot= Great


Must be something in the water over here...

Buzzard's Bay hardly got an easy trip in the Oaklawn Handicap? He went the half in :46 3/5. Do you know how fast that is at Oaklawn? In most of those stakes races at Oaklawn, they go the half in :48 or slower. Oaklawn plays different than most tracks. You can pretty much subtract a second from whatever they run the half-mile in there. When Afleet Alex won the Arkansas derby, they ran the half in :48. In the Rebel this year, they ran the half in :47 4/5. When Rockport Harbor won that stakes race there, he went the half in :48. You rarely see horses run the half in under :47 there. When they do, they aren't around at the finish.

Buzzard's Bay obviously did not fire in the Stephen Foster. Did you notice that he hasn't run since then. That's usually a sign that something was amiss. Buzzard's Bay is on the comeback trail right now. He'll be ready to run in about 6 weeks.

With regard to Action This Day, the only thing that is important is that it was a great buy. They bought him relatively cheap as a yearling. I don't remeber the excat amount but I think it was around $150,000. He won the $1 million BC Juvenille and then they made an additional $1-2 million on his stud deal. I think Ellis can be proud of picking out a horse for $150,000 that returned his owner about $2-3 million. It doesn't really matter whether you or I think ATD was a good horse or not.

That was the mistake of the person who wrote the article. Read Ellis' quote. Ellis didn't mention the Strub Series. Ellis said, "The long range plans are for the big races at Santa Anita." Ellis did not mention the Strub Series. The person who wrote the article was the one who mentioned the Strub Series. The writer obviously forget how old DM was.

I can assure you that Ellis never mentioned the Strub Series.

I like them both.

that one there doesn't quote ellis, but i remember a quote where, he indeed, said he was pointing for the strub series. i remember clearly discussing it with somebody and saying it would have been nice if the reporter would have covered for him. it might have been in the print version of drf. i remember it very well. i thought at the time it was very tacky that the reporter didn't have his back. i think it was with gmb, i'm sure it was (is gmb on this board?). i remember gmb asking why would any reporter want to cover for him, he's a jerk. then greg said he wouldn't let ellis train a mule, never mind a thoroughbred.

anyway, i don't care. i just find it funny that zito got his a$$ handed to him on this board, and ron ellis is getting so much support. if you want to support ron ellis with a couple of 4th place derby finishes, and bust zito because he's only WON a few triple crown races, it's just backasswards. in my humble opinion, the difference between those two trainers is night and day, and i don't think i need to state which one i think is in the dark.

If I recall, there was only one poster on here "handing Zito's ass to him." :confused:

By the way, Buzzard's Bay went the opening quarter in :22 4/5 in the Oaklawn race. He didn't have an easy lead either. He had a horse breathing down his neck the whole time. He had a horse within a length of him the whole time. He goes the quarter in :22 4/5, the half in :46 3/5 and he has a horse within 3/4 of a length of him at the half. He ended up winning the race by 6 lengths. It was one of the best performances of the year. It was an incredibly strong race. Practically every horse in that race came back to win graded stakes races. I think there were 5 or 6 horses in that race that came back and won big races. I think Andromeda's Hero was the only horse in that race that didn't come back to win.

Dude, you can't be serious. Buzzard Bay's OP romp was one of the most impressive races of the entire year. He ran his guts out that day.