Derby Trail Forums - 2/16: Gulfstream Park (3rd-11th); Santa Anita (4th-10th)

Was nice to get back to Aqueduct Friday and though I made a decent run at the P6, ignoring Royal Lahaina's potential in the 6 horse 8th was a death knell for overall success on the day. Looking back at the Riccio mare going first time for Rodriguez, she was every bit as eligible for the win as Hard Life (P6/P4 use) or Coco Ecolo (P4 use). Parisella Centrique was pretty disappointing as the favorite, having no answer for the winner when confronted at the top of the stretch. The P6 paid a robust $13k and Royal Lahaina really boosted the P4 which returned $1,203. Hope everyone did OK.

Training was cancelled at Gulfstream today due to the sloppy conditions. Rain is exiting the area but it is hard to know what we'll have for conditions during the afternoon. Turf stakes will almost certainly go, but the 5th, 7th and 11th may be moved. We'll see how it shapes up and I will do my best to keep you informed..

GULFSTREAM TURF: 7th, 8th, 10th are ON; 5th, 11th are OFF the turf..

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

More one to watch than a betting affair with Juddmonte-Mott Emollient making soph bow. Will need to come back running as Pletcher-Bolton A.P. Indy miss Majestic River debutted well and figures even better 2-turning...

Most Likely: #3 Emollient 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #4 Majestic River 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Miss Squeal 5-1 5th

4th: MSW, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Abraham 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #1 Successful Brothers 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Trade Rumor 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 The Candidate 7-2 2nd

5th: MSW, 3yo, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Unitarian 4th
Next Best: #6 Rakete 3rd
Exotics Use: #13 Conversationalist 5th

6th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$2,605,671 Rainbow 6 Jackpot

Most Likely: #2 Flyin Trey 3-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Cunaguaro 5-2 9th
Best Value: #7 Reflected Cat 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Chiseled Light 5-1 2nd

7th: OC/N3X, 4+, 1m-T/84' (P5, P3, DD)

This event could easily have had a name slapped on to it as an overnight stake. Super fun set to bet..

Best Value: #8 Bad Debt 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Monument Hill 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Quick Wit 10-1 9th
Super Add: #11 Abilio 20-1 6th

8th: 27th The Very One (G3), F&M-4+, 11d-T/24' (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Starformer 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #6 Angegreen 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Kadaya 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Janicellaine 8-1 7th

9th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Sure to be overbet Capo Bastone makes Pletcher camp debut here and unless his style has been revamped, may find himself in awkward position trying to close on surface unkind to that tactic. I'll cast my lot with sneaky looking Tony Dutrow stretchout Edge of Reality (8-1)..

Best Value: #3 Edge of Reality 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Sky Commander 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Capo Bastone 8-5 WON ($5.00)
Super Add: #2 Duke of the City 4-1 4th

10th: 20th Mac Diarmida (F2), 11f-T/24' (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Lucky Chappy 5-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Nikki's Sandcastle 8-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Amira's Prince 4-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Ioya Bigtime 6-1 3rd

11th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 In the Beat 5th
Next Best: #5 Notimetokill 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Awesome Attack 4th
Super Add: #9 Fact 3rd

<$60 P6 Play:

6: 1-2-7-8
7: 4-7-8-11
8: 1
9: 2-3-4-5-6-7
10: 3-6-9
11: 5-8

4x4x1x6x3x2 = 576 x .10 = $57.60

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 4-7-8-11
8: 1
9: 2-3-4-5-6-7
10: 3-6-9
11: 5-8

4x1x6x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-6-8
9: 2-3-4-5-6-7
10: 3-6-8-9
11: 5-8

3x6x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: Santa Maria (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Book Review 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Lady of Fifty 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Snow Fall 9-5 4th

5th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Marty Jones has Mrs. Ziebarth's homebred Tiznow filly My Sweet Addiction debuting here. She dropped from the owner's terrific G1W Healthy Addiction..

Most Likely: #8 Betises de Cambrai 3-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Midnight Lucky 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Swimmin Insunshine 3-1 8th
Super Add: #5 My Sweet Addiction 4-1 2nd

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Miss Well Molded 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #11 Black Tunic 15-1 WON ($52.80)
Next Best: #8 Miss Pippa 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Double Ante 8-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (11-6) Paid $180.40
$1 Trifecta (11-6-2) Paid $1,335.40
$1 Superfecta (11-6-2-8) Paid $7,300.30

7th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Carla Gaines bows Mr. Williamson's Cool Roger (Spring at Last) out of Leo O'Brien's sublime NY-bred Irish Linnet who was a hard-hitting multiple graded stakes winner amassing 19 tallies in 62 career starts and earnings of $1.2MM..

Most Likely: #8 Del Mar Sunset 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Caviar Dreams 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Okaad 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Mistaken Identity 6-1 9th

8th: Sweet Life, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Doinghardtimeagain 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Jubliant Girl 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Heir Kitty 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Escape Act 6-1 4th

9th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Lady Katfish 9-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #7 Jesse's Giacomo 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Cavalla 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Exclusive Story 5-1 9th

10th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

Fun betting race..

Most Likely: #11 Indygo F M A 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Exchange Student 7-2 8th
Best Value: #6 Miss Judged 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Lord Kitra 6-1 6th
Super/Hi-5: #8 Hard Buns 4-1 4th

<$75 P6 Play:

5: 1-8
6: 2
7: 7-8
8: 2-8-9
9: 5
10: 2-6-11

2x1x2x3x1x3 = 36 x $2 = $72

<$25 P4 Play:

7: 7-8
8: 2-8-9
9: 5
10: 1-2-3-6-8-9-10-11

2x3x1x8 = 48 x .50 = $24

Good luck!
Steve