Derby Trail Forums - 5/17: Hi Ho Pimlico! (5th-13th)

Day 1 of the Preakness Weekend and seemingly a wide open card..

PIMLICO RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

NOTE: .50 TRIS, .50 P3/P4's. P5 IS 'JACKPOT' STYLE..

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #8 Fly'n Bayou 9-2 4th
Next Best: #12 Readyshakego 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #14 Beatnick 9-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Locche 8-1 10th

6th: 20th Skipat, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)

Not swallowing 7-5 Dance to Bristol whole off monster effort at Charles Town. Any previous typical effort from her here makes her just one of 4 that can win..

Best Value: #6 Strike the Moon 4-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Dance to Bristol 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Funnys Approval 9-2 6th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3)

Yikes.. Another 14 horse field and about 7.5 of them look capable. Lock, load and pray your inclusion gets his trip..

Most Likely: #7 Livingston Street 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Paris Is Art 12-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Followmyfootsteps 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Zarroc 15-1 10th

8th: 28th Miss Preakness, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3)

Please be aware that this P5 is a jackpot style requiring a single unique winner..

Many here want to be up on the lead and I think you need to find a stalker type that can pick up fading pacesetters. George Weaver's Lighthouse Bay (8-1) fits the bill nicely..

Best Value: #9 Lighthouse Bay 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Tread 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 I'm Mom's Favorite 8-5 WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #10 Jewel of a Cat 12-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 5-8-12-14
6: 2-5-6
7: 1-4-7-8
8: 2-8-9

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

9th: 8th Jim McKay Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3)

Night Officer a SCR having won in New York Thursday. Key to making money here is getting Super Chunky (15-1), Ken's Cape 12-1) and/or Spring to the Sky (10-1) into the mix with the big favorites..

Most Likely: #2 Bridgetown 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #8 Super Chunky 15-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Ben's Cat 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Ken's Cape 12-1 6th

10th: 89th Black-Eyed Susan (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (P3)

SCR #1 Manuka Honey & #5 Walkwithapurpose. Question here is whether you believe Emollient is a dirt horse or not. After that, you can reach around and tinker with a price or two including Nicks' Maracuya who could be dangerous if left to her own devices up front. On that topic, Fiftyshadesofhay gets blinkers, adds Rosario and exits a bullet work at CD. Looms a stalk and go presence..

Most Likely: #3 Fiftyshadesofhay 2-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #7 Emollient 8-5 6th
Best Value: #6 Maracuya 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Marathon Lady 12-1 2nd

11th: 14th Very One, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3)

Looks like this goes straight through the Giant's Causeway at KEE where Sweet Cassiopeia, Spun Cap, Sounds of the City and Sensible Lady finished 1-4 within 2+ lengths of each other. Sensible Lady won this a year ago and while she hasn't run back to that effort since, it's notable that she is 2/2 over this course

Best Value: #3 Sensible Lady 6-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #13 Sweet Cassiopeia 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Spun Cap 5-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Sounds of the City 6-1 5th

12th: 43rd Pimlico Special (G3), 3+, 9.5f (Special-Preakness Double, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Last Gunfighter 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #3 Brimstone Island 12-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Eighttodasttocatch 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Concealed Identity 15-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

9: 2-6-7-8
10: 3-6-7-9
11: 3-4-7-10-11-12-13
12: 7

4x4x7x1 = 112 x .50 = $56

$0.50 Pick 4 (7/3/3/1,7) Paid $47.10

13th: 41st Hilltop, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super Hi-5)

The sophomore filly turf division is terrific and this is a great example of the assemblies that have been dotting the calendar with them. There's enough turf in Zenzara's family to make her interesting at a price..

Best Value: #2 Zenzara 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Summer of Love 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Birdlover 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Premier Steps 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Miss Lucky Sevens 10-1 4th

Good luck!
Steve