Two at Toga

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Thanks - unfortunately my next was dreadful, in fact both of my "best bets" are still running.

Not sure if it was the plan all along or an audible given the horrific start but Officiating appeared to just get a learning experience gallop around the track...be mildly interested to see 2nd out.
I agree on Colonel Liam and that race...nice group...Irad gave DS some ride and it likely was the difference. Plenty of upside still with a bunch of those.

Wagered: $16.00
Returned:$31.70

Today:
Best Bet: Race 9 #4 Stunning Sky - At first glance it would appear as if Stunning Sky had a perfect trip in the Lake Placid and it certainly wasn't horrible...but the more I watched the more I think the early move which caused Speaktomeofsummer to back out might've worked to the latter horses favor that day...Irad also was a bit stymied late before it admittedly parted perfectly...I think SS is more likely to appreciate the added ground than the 1. We'll see on Enola Gay, such an odd race last time I want to take one shot against and Ricetta is a huge question mark...I think I'll actually try to get through multis with just SS and Antoinette although I may throw Ricetta in there as well.
Best Value: Race 8 #9 Playtone - She appeared to have some ability breaking the maiden then was no match for Big Q (who is a must use for me)...I think that margin of defeat is deceptive as she took the worst of it and Manny wrapped her up well before the wire with second secured...I think the race two back the fig is low, not sure if it was a weird track that day but most runners there were well below normal. Don't have an excuse for the last but the subsequent layoff makes it seem something went awry and the worktab leading up to this indicates she's back. Weaver isn't great off layoffs but if you look at just dirt sprints at Toga I think his last bunch have been 80% ITM (don't quote me I looked it up around 4:30 this morning on formulator) with a couple winners and positive ROI.

Good luck.

Good luck. Stunning Sky is the one that worries me against Enola Gay. We’ll see how it goes.

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Thanks - unfortunately my next was dreadful, in fact both of my "best bets" are still running.

Not sure if it was the plan all along or an audible given the horrific start but Officiating appeared to just get a learning experience gallop around the track...be mildly interested to see 2nd out.
I agree on Colonel Liam and that race...nice group...Irad gave DS some ride and it likely was the difference. Plenty of upside still with a bunch of those.

Wagered: $16.00
Returned:$31.70

Today:
Best Bet: Race 9 #4 Stunning Sky - At first glance it would appear as if Stunning Sky had a perfect trip in the Lake Placid and it certainly wasn't horrible...but the more I watched the more I think the early move which caused Speaktomeofsummer to back out might've worked to the latter horses favor that day...Irad also was a bit stymied late before it admittedly parted perfectly...I think SS is more likely to appreciate the added ground than the 1. We'll see on Enola Gay, such an odd race last time I want to take one shot against and Ricetta is a huge question mark...I think I'll actually try to get through multis with just SS and Antoinette although I may throw Ricetta in there as well.
Best Value: Race 8 #9 Playtone - She appeared to have some ability breaking the maiden then was no match for Big Q (who is a must use for me)...I think that margin of defeat is deceptive as she took the worst of it and Manny wrapped her up well before the wire with second secured...I think the race two back the fig is low, not sure if it was a weird track that day but most runners there were well below normal. Don't have an excuse for the last but the subsequent layoff makes it seem something went awry and the worktab leading up to this indicates she's back. Weaver isn't great off layoffs but if you look at just dirt sprints at Toga I think his last bunch have been 80% ITM (don't quote me I looked it up around 4:30 this morning on formulator) with a couple winners and positive ROI.

Good luck.

Like that you watched multiple replays and really like that your throw in horse ... Ricetta ... is a daughter of Camelot ... who almost won the British Triple Crown ... and ... of course his daddy ... Montjeu ... has Europeon offspring in a class of their own ... legendary ... shes bred to go long ... the distance will be to her liking and Euros often fire their best shot first time off the boat ... love that Juddmonte kept her ... they sell what they want and keep the cream .. so ... they think highly of her ... she's a good "throw-in" at 9/2 ML ... for sure ...

[moses]

Hoping that I can make this week at Saratoga a little bit better than the first week.

Best Bet: Race 5 - #5 McErin (9/2 ML). The pace here looks like it could be fairly quick between my selection, the #6, and the #7...but I'm banking here on the overall turf talent of this horse, who has flashed in turf sprints but tries for his first turf route in this one. The #8 Financial System is clearly the horse to beat and while I'm tempted to go with one of the closers, I just don't think the late runners are good enough here so I'll try to beat the favorite on the front end.

Longshot: Race 9 - #4 Tornado Crossing (15/1 ML). There is not a lot to like about this horse...but there isn't much to like about any of the horses in this race. The #4 Tornado Crossing had some bad luck two back and I thought suffered from a terrible ride in the most recent start, being ridden wide early into the first turn despite a slow start, making a move mid-race to move up into third, going wide around the second turn, and predictably running out of gas down the stretch. While the switch to Cohen doesn't inspire confidence, I expect this horse to go off at massive odds but really think that she could be in the mix if Cohen can work out a better trip for her.



Best bets: $20.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $20.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $40.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 6 #9 Balon Rose
Best Value: Race 5 #4 Golden Decision

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Hoping that I can make this week at Saratoga a little bit better than the first week.

Best Bet: Race 5 - #5 McErin (9/2 ML). The pace here looks like it could be fairly quick between my selection, the #6, and the #7...but I'm banking here on the overall turf talent of this horse, who has flashed in turf sprints but tries for his first turf route in this one. The #8 Financial System is clearly the horse to beat and while I'm tempted to go with one of the closers, I just don't think the late runners are good enough here so I'll try to beat the favorite on the front end.

Longshot: Race 9 - #4 Tornado Crossing (15/1 ML). There is not a lot to like about this horse...but there isn't much to like about any of the horses in this race. The #4 Tornado Crossing had some bad luck two back and I thought suffered from a terrible ride in the most recent start, being ridden wide early into the first turn despite a slow start, making a move mid-race to move up into third, going wide around the second turn, and predictably running out of gas down the stretch. While the switch to Cohen doesn't inspire confidence, I expect this horse to go off at massive odds but really think that she could be in the mix if Cohen can work out a better trip for her.



Best bets: $20.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $20.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $40.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.

Right Thought, Wrong Horse: The Story of My Life

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

Right Thought, Wrong Horse: The Story of My Life

That was nice of Irad to let Jose skate to the lead like that.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

That was nice of Irad to let Jose skate to the lead like that.

Yeah, not crazy about the ride from Irad, though I still don’t think Mcerin wins even if he let him loose.

[moses]

Well, day 6 of this didn't go well for me. Mcerin did not get the ride I was hoping and was probably not good enough anyway. Tornado Crossing ran well for a 35/1 horse and gained position down the stretch but ultimately came up too little too late. This is definitely becoming more difficult than I originally thought.

But anyway, on to Thursday's card. August 20th.

Best Bet: Race 8 - #3 Elegant Zip (10/1 ML). Elegant Zip gave it her best try last time out against the second choice in here Speightstown Gal, getting edged for 2nd by 1/2 a length. She is definitely capable here and should be a nice price. The #7 Lead Guitar looks formidable on last year's turf form but has not been quite as impressive this year and I consider her to be a vulnerable favorite here, preferring the two frontrunners in this race. With Elegant Zip drawing inside of Speightstown Gal, I think that might make the difference and allow Elegant Zip to turn the tables here. My hope is that the #6 Quality Stones doesn't throw a wrench in my pace projection, as she will likely try to get involved early with Carmouche aboard.

Longshot: Race 4 - #2 Freudian Analyst (6/1 ML). The two favorites are eligible to improve in their 2nd off the layoff...but so is the #2 Freudian Analyst in his 3rd race on the turf. All 3 horses on the outside, #6 Boom Boom Kaboom, #7 Disciplinarian, and #8 Threepointninenine look like they'll be forwardly placed, which could provide for a nice pace setup for Freudian Analyst, who only finished a nose behind the morning line favorite last time out and oddly altered in down the stretch that probably cost him a better finish. Yes, it's Keith O'Brien as the trainer and I couldn't tell you the last time that he's won a race...but in this group, this one has a chance.

Results so far.


Best bets: $24.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $24.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $48.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.

[moses]

Friday, August 21.

Best Bet. Race 1 - #6 Advanced Strategy (9/5 ML).
Longshot. Race 5 - #9 My Man Flintstone (5/1 ML).


Best bets: $28.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $28.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $56.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Friday, August 21.

Best Bet. Race 1 - #6 Advanced Strategy (9/5 ML).
Longshot. Race 5 - #9 My Man Flintstone (5/1 ML).


Best bets: $28.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $28.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $56.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.

I didn't have time last night but my thoughts on these two.

The #6 Advanced Strategy was bet heavily in his turf debut and ran well in defeat. With the addition of Lasix, 2nd off the layoff, and the fact that Jim Jerkens sends him back to the turf, this horse looks primed to run big. I really think it's unlikely that #4 Striking Causeway will get an easy lead, as some may think. The #7 Silver Token got an aggressive ride up front last time out and that was his best race to date. You also have the #3 Our Destiny adding blinkers and the #5 Calibogee as a possible pace factor with Santana aboard and some decent looking works. All that leaves me landing on Advanced Strategy who should get a nice trip sitting off the pace and who is very likely to improve on his last.

The #9 My Man Flintstone is a bit of a wildcard but at 5/1 in a race where I don't really like any of the other horses, I think it's worth it to take a shot on this one as he returns to the turf. He's very fast on multiple surfaces; just look back to his race back in May at Churchill where he was vanquished by Derby contender Art Collector. His pedigree indicates he might like turf so I'm willing to disregard his only turf try so far. There are not any blazing fast turf sprinters in here so he should be able to jump out to the lead and hopefully never look back. Aside from that, the only other longshot on the card that I feel really good about is the #1 Crock of Gold in Race 4 - a 2YO making his first start for a trainer that wins at a 2% clip with first time starters. So as much as that one intrigues me, I'd rather take a shot here.

[moses]

It sucks I’m going to have to wait an extra hour for my picks to lose today.

[theguarantee]

^lol - I like My Man Flintstone as well today for whatever little that’s worth. Looking forward to seeing Golden Pal run today - needed him to hang on at Ascot for a decent score but still was one of the few profitable races of that meet for me.

I’ll update my record tomorrow. Horrible picks Wednesday and was too busy with work yesterday.

Best Bet Race 9 #7 Kept Waiting - ran too well to lose last out. More worried about Micromillion than Gaelic Gold honestly but hope they both take money as I’d be happy with the 5/2 ML.
BEst Value Race 7 #2 Lady by Choice - Don’t trust the favorites in here and her form is dirtied up certainly off the last trip but the last few rides in general I think have been less than stellar.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^lol - I like My Man Flintstone as well today for whatever little that’s worth. Looking forward to seeing Golden Pal run today - needed him to hang on at Ascot for a decent score but still was one of the few profitable races of that meet for me.

I’ll update my record tomorrow. Horrible picks Wednesday and was too busy with work yesterday.

Best Bet Race 9 #7 Kept Waiting - ran too well to lose last out. More worried about Micromillion than Gaelic Gold honestly but hope they both take money as I’d be happy with the 5/2 ML.
BEst Value Race 7 #2 Lady by Choice - Don’t trust the favorites in here and her form is dirtied up certainly off the last trip but the last few rides in general I think have been less than stellar.

My 2nd best bet would be Kept Waiting...which means it isn’t too late to change your pick! I’m not a huge fan of the ML favorite for race 7 so I was looking to take a shot there but just didn’t have a strong feel on the horses and kinda like #5 Flat Awesome Jenny.

Good luck.

[moses]

I know I had him as my best bet, but even money on the #6 there was pretty ridiculous. He picked up some ground late but it looks like he is not fast enough for 5.5 furlongs.

[moses]

I'm brutally bad at this.

[moses]

Best bets: $32.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $32.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $64.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.

After a nice start, I haven't hit anything since Baffert's Tale of the Union ran 2nd over a week ago now. Yikes!

Best bet. Race 3 - #5 French Reef (4/5 ML). Considering the fact that I haven't picked a single top 2 finisher in a week, I'm going to just go with the horse that I think has the best chance of running top 2 tomorrow. Normally, I'd try to search for a little value...but I've got to do something to end this losing streak. This one is very fast and I don't think the others will be able to keep up. But you may want to bet a few dollars against him, just in case my streak continues.

Longshot. Race 7 - #2 Plot the Dots (8/1 ML). Last time out, Trombetta sent this one into stakes company for his turf debut. Bumped a couple times at the start, he was wide throughout and seemed to run out of gas toward the end of the race. But he'll now get much needed class relief and Rosario can hopefully work out a nice trip for him to close into what looks like a pretty honest pace. He's got that tall, leggy frame that we often see from Uncle Mo progeny and I always like to see that for turf routers. Given that the connections thought highly enough of him to throw him into a stakes race, I think he could be dangerous here.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Best bets: $32.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $32.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $64.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.

After a nice start, I haven't hit anything since Baffert's Tale of the Union ran 2nd over a week ago now. Yikes!

Best bet. Race 3 - #5 French Reef (4/5 ML). Considering the fact that I haven't picked a single top 2 finisher in a week, I'm going to just go with the horse that I think has the best chance of running top 2 tomorrow. Normally, I'd try to search for a little value...but I've got to do something to end this losing streak. This one is very fast and I don't think the others will be able to keep up. But you may want to bet a few dollars against him, just in case my streak continues.

Longshot. Race 7 - #2 Plot the Dots (8/1 ML). Last time out, Trombetta sent this one into stakes company for his turf debut. Bumped a couple times at the start, he was wide throughout and seemed to run out of gas toward the end of the race. But he'll now get much needed class relief and Rosario can hopefully work out a nice trip for him to close into what looks like a pretty honest pace. He's got that tall, leggy frame that we often see from Uncle Mo progeny and I always like to see that for turf routers. Given that the connections thought highly enough of him to throw him into a stakes race, I think he could be dangerous here.

Actually felt pretty good about these picks so it figures that 1-3-5-7 are off the turf. Without comment, I'll switch my picks to:

Best bet. Race 5 - #11 Likeable (4/1 ML)
Longshot. Race 10 - #2 Kid Chocolate (15/1 ML)

[theguarantee]

^I liked Plot the Dots on the turf too -- certainly has a shot on the dirt I guess but now I much prefer others.

Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $41.70

Best Bet: Race 9 #6 Uni - Hesitated to make best bet because I'm unsure on the price...I think it's really hard to figure out how the three main Chad horses will be bet plus Halladay is an X factor...ultimately based on this exercise I'll trust Aragona's ML as he is much better than I at predicting prices and at 3/1 I'll be excited to bet. I just think she is hands down the best horse in the race and while I wish Joel was aboard we are still in great hands...if she's just not the same at 6 years old then oh well but I think the last can be excused and the most recent work heads up with Newspaperofrecord to me says she's all systems go today.
Best Value: Race 8 #5 Winston's Chance - The scratch of It's All Relevant seems to have most (reasonably enough btw) defaulting the race to Blewitt...I get it but I wonder if Winston's Chance isn't the most likely to benefit from that scratch and at a bit better price. I absolutely detest Sea Foam off as basic a trip as can be received and I don't totally trust Blewitt. I actually think Legit is dangerous but being clumped into the entry/a leap of faith makes that one unbettable. Growth Engine is certainly dangerous but I'm confused (and maybe overthinking) the ship to Monmouth in the last/not thrilled with that field. That all leads me to my choice...if you can draw a line through the first off the layoff may well just be an improved/nice horse for Donk. Seems to appreciate the track/distance and with a favorable pace scenario today might be able to get it done and I certainly like to at least hit the board for exotics.

Good luck everyone.

[moses]

Likeable lost by about a head and Kid Chocolate ran a great race but came up a bit short, finishing 3rd.

Best bets: $36.00 wagered. $15.50 returned.
Longshots: $36.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $72.00 wagered. $34.30 returned.

Sunday, August 23rd.

Best bet. Race 3 - #6 Jade Empress (4/1 ML). I got burnt last time with a Mott first time starter when Officiating had trouble at the start but his gallop out showed that I was right to think highly of him and he's a horse to look out for next time. I feel strongly about Mott's first time starter Jade Empress here. The most recent two workouts are exactly what I like to see with a 2YO starting for the first time. She put in a 5 furlong workout in just over 1:00 and came back with a 4 furlong workout in 47 flat. She will likely be the 4th choice in here but I have her as the horse to beat.

Longshot. Race 6 - #9 Keypit (30/1 ML). Outside of the 6/5 ML favorite #1 Towering Gaze, this race looks completely devoid of early pace except for the #9 Keypit. Keypit has a couple of decent turf sprints back as a 2YO that I'm looking at to justify this pick. On top of that, I'll excuse her for the 1st off the layoff and note that she got squeezed at the start last time out, negating the one thing she has going for her - early speed. With the outside post, she should get a cleaner break this time and may be the one to catch. It doesn't hurt that Albertrani posts much better-than-average numbers with horses 3rd of the layoff and mayyyyybe this one is able to jump out to a lead and never look back.

[theguarantee]

Wagered $48.00
Returned $41.70

Tough card today...

Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Mean Mary - I was admittedly slow to coming around to thinking she could be this type going all the way back to the promising maiden win...while she completely controlled the pace in the NY however she really won me over watching her power home in the stretch. Definitely an acid test but I think she will be tough to beat in here unless Sistercharlie re-finds her best form.

Best Value: Race 7 #6 Pete's Play Call - loved the last effort, has to hold form off the trainer change but cutting back to 6 should help and Luis should be able to map out a nice trip.

GL.