If you like Sun King in the Classic...

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Huh? He lost the Whitney by a head to Invasor who is clearly better than virtually every horse he faced last year.

I'm not singing his praises for this race, though I think he has a reasonable chance to get a piece, but you are not making logical sense ( again ).

U think Invasor is clearly better than every horse he faced last year. I don't. Invasor has won some nice races this year but he's beaten absolutely nothing at all. I think he's beaten even less than Bernardini and Discreet Cat have. It's going to take more than beating Wanderin Boy and We Can Seek and Andromeda's Hero for me to get on the Invasor wagon. I was trying my best to give him his due but then when he went out and barely could hold off Sun King, the only decent horse he's faced this year, I knew Invasor was a fraud. U say Sun King's got a reasonable chance to get a piece because of how well he ran against Invasor? I say neither one of them gets within sniffing distance of the first four at the wire.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

U think Invasor is clearly better than every horse he faced last year. I don't. Invasor has won some nice races this year but he's beaten absolutely nothing at all. I think he's beaten even less than Bernardini and Discreet Cat have. It's going to take more than beating Wanderin Boy and We Can Seek and Andromeda's Hero for me to get on the Invasor wagon. I was trying my best to give him his due but then when he went out and barely could hold off Sun King, the only decent horse he's faced this year, I knew Invasor was a fraud. U say Sun King's got a reasonable chance to get a piece because of how well he ran against Invasor? I say neither one of them gets within sniffing distance of the first four at the wire.

I'm sorry, are you talking about Invasor or Bernardini? Wanderin Boy was a less than apt foil for both of these guys in GI races this year.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

U think Invasor is clearly better than every horse he faced last year. I don't. Invasor has won some nice races this year but he's beaten absolutely nothing at all. I think he's beaten even less than Bernardini and Discreet Cat have. It's going to take more than beating Wanderin Boy and We Can Seek and Andromeda's Hero for me to get on the Invasor wagon. I was trying my best to give him his due but then when he went out and barely could hold off Sun King, the only decent horse he's faced this year, I knew Invasor was a fraud. U say Sun King's got a reasonable chance to get a piece because of how well he ran against Invasor? I say neither one of them gets within sniffing distance of the first four at the wire.

I can't wait for your book " Horse Racing on Acid ".

First of all, I never said he is " clearly better than every horse he faced last year ". Suggesting his competition has been less than that of Discreet Cat's is either flat out wrong and indefensible or some sort of trick comment on your part because of the Dubai race. And, to judge the ability of horses simply by whom they faced is a poor method of handicapping, and one I will assume you are using in some desperate attempt to qualify your previous bad opinions.

The reality is that horses only have to perform better than their competition on a given day to be successful and other than Bernardini the competition in the BC Classic this year does not look substantially better than Sun King...at least on paper. Sun King's biggest possible problem may well be the distance, as it appears his better races are shorter. On the other hand, he is clearly better this year than last, and his rating style seems to have improved his performance.

I do love your posts though. Can't wait for the book!

I like Sun King in the money based on his pedigree and his heart. He has Summer Squall in that bloodline and that is just fine with me. A.P. Indy and Summer Squall are half-siblings.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Volponi, Alphabet Soup, and Concern all were not GI winners prior to the Breeders Cup. Black Tie Affair's only GI win coming into the Classic was the Iselin at 9 furlongs.

So basically in Breeders Cup Classic history, a first time grade I winner takes the race around 14 percent of the time.

I don't think Wild Again was a Grade 1 winner before the BCC either. I'm not sure but Skywalker and Arcangues might not have been G1 winners going into the race, either.

[slotdirt]

Skywalker won the Santa Anita Derby; Wild Again won the Meadowlands Handicap which was apparently a GI race at the time. I think Arcangues won some sort of race on the turf that was GI in France somewhere.

My post was not "bashing" Sun King as some ensued, but merely a simple and preliminary analysis of his chances to win to win the classic. He is a wonderful racehorse by any measure. Is he hopeless a week from Saturday? Not at all, but I am certain, that my initial post took some air out of some posters who were going to "key" him.

After all, he is not particularly bred for the trip, and has failed miserably at ten furlongs, in each of his five attempts. Add that to the fact that he will carry the package (126), and will face what is easily the best field of his career.

True the pace strongly figures legit, and SK runs late, but as a very, very, preliminary guesstimate, I would expect him off about 20-1 and his true chances, double that! Up until the last sentence if you were "off" him; and now your back onboard, WHY?

Euro, would think the Overbrook pedigree being; Storm Cat out of Train Robbery by Alydar would get you ten furlongs. If not put Pat Day up and send!!

Slot, 44 etc. Indeed, as horses get older they establish certain tendencies, but their pedigree does not change. BBB

[Danzig]

yeah, and ghostzapper never tried 10f til the bcc... and a lot of people thought he'd stop at about the 9f mark. intercontinental was supposed to be distance challenged as well...and banks hill. who else? oh yeah, azeri couldn't win away from the west coast. and she ran with front wraps.

[Thunder Gulch]

Without a couple of rabbits, SK has little chance of getting a piece here. He's a nice animal, but he's not fast enough.

Originally Posted by Scav

Supposedly horses get stamina from their mare side, which I have never really understood how the mare can throw stamina, but I am guessing this is why he is saying this, as if i recall, Clever Trick is there somewhere

There is a very clear reason why the mare MIGHT infer stamina to offspring. If you want to know Scavs, PM me. But be ready for a bit of stuff about exercise physiology, cells and genetics. It is actually quite interesting I think. It makes perfect biological sense to me.

But I still would rather watch a horse actually prove stamina on the track rather than looking a pedigrees.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

U think Invasor is clearly better than every horse he faced last year. I don't. Invasor has won some nice races this year but he's beaten absolutely nothing at all. I think he's beaten even less than Bernardini and Discreet Cat have. It's going to take more than beating Wanderin Boy and We Can Seek and Andromeda's Hero for me to get on the Invasor wagon. I was trying my best to give him his due but then when he went out and barely could hold off Sun King, the only decent horse he's faced this year, I knew Invasor was a fraud. U say Sun King's got a reasonable chance to get a piece because of how well he ran against Invasor? I say neither one of them gets within sniffing distance of the first four at the wire.

you've got Invasor pegged as a fraud??!! Wow! I think you've really underestimated him. Essentially I see him as the only realy threat to Bernardini. I think all of the other horses mentioned require several things to go their way in order to win. Invasor imo matches up fairly close to Bernardini on the figures I use. I've posted on this before. Much will depend on the shape of the race and how Bernardini handles it

Don't think you can point to one race, winning by a nose over Sun King, and conclude Invasor is a fraud. Keep this in mind about the Whitney before you draw too many conclusions, 1) It was far and away Sun Kings best performance of his life at 9F, and 2) Invasor stumbled at the start and it was basically right in line figurewise with his other starts, and 3) He seems to me to be better at longer distances.

Danzig188 Ghostzapper was a lock, but it is bizarre that you could conclude Intercontinental was distance challenged, then mention Banks Hill in the same sentence. Two of our top ten scores were in each of their Cup triumphs. I would be interested in what you thought of Caciques' chances? Remember Heat Haze or Dansili? They are all the same horse!

Wearing fronts is similar to using an umbrella in an intermittent rain.

As far as the mare adding stamina; look at seven of the last ten Ky derby winners and dump the exercise physiology.

Thunder Gulch: Sun King needs a pace meltdwn to be in the trifecta and that chance is 50 -50.

AP Jim Invasor figures to be eight or ten to one and is a tough read. His recency must be addressed and he beats me if he wins. BBB

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

AP Jim Invasor figures to be eight or ten to one and is a tough read. His recency must be addressed and he beats me if he wins. BBB

Agreed, recency is my main issue with him as well, although that is not huge issue in my view.

Also I would agree that Premium Tap's last few races have shown me that he is a horse that belongs in the race, albeit not the strongest shot at winning I think he has a reasonable shot at hitting the board.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Danzig188 Ghostzapper was a lock, but it is bizarre that you could conclude Intercontinental was distance challenged, then mention Banks Hill in the same sentence. Two of our top ten scores were in each of their Cup triumphs. I would be interested in what you thought of Caciques' chances? Remember Heat Haze or Dansili? They are all the same horse!

Wearing fronts is similar to using an umbrella in an intermittent rain.

As far as the mare adding stamina; look at seven of the last ten Ky derby winners and dump the exercise physiology.

Thunder Gulch: Sun King needs a pace meltdwn to be in the trifecta and that chance is 50 -50.

AP Jim Invasor figures to be eight or ten to one and is a tough read. His recency must be addressed and he beats me if he wins. BBB

hey, i didn't say i agreed with those who thought they couldn't get the distance! all i'm saying is a lot of horses have been given no chance by many to get a distance, and they went out and did it. i think sun king is another who could do it. not saying he's my pick, but i wouldn't use the 10f to leave him out of it.

[slotdirt]

Breeding, schmeeding. Since when has breeding meant much more than a nickel in so far as handicapping a race goes? I figured the results of the last six or seven Kentucky Derbies would show folks the value of breeding as a predictive measure is pretty much zero. Now we're being told a four year old who has run this race as a 3YO and had a pretty good season against some really tough horses can't get 10f because.....his broodmare sire is Clever Trick? Please. Motherf-ing please.

[slotdirt]

And this isn't even to mention the fact that Clever Trick is by the same sire that brought us Wild Again!!!! Wild Again, people!

[todko]

Premium Tap has a legitimate shot to win this race. The breeding is a factor at 10f (along with everything else). Was at Turfway when Kent D. nearly killed him. He looked magnificent. He's really rounded into form and he will be running at the end.

The downside to breeding is that people look at the damsire on the pps and they don't look beyond that. They see a damsire associated with speed and assume the horse can't get a distance. Look at the 5 generation pedigree and you'll see a lot more. I don't stay away from Carson City as a damsire because I know that although he ran as a lightning fast sprinter he has stamina influences too. Any damsire from the Mr. Prospector line is often underappreciated as a source of stamina.

I would be seriously surprised if Sun King finished ahead of Premium Tap. Premium Tap has a much better pedigree to get the distance, he's well trained, he's in good form.

If you're a dosage guru PT has a CD of 0.07 -- about as good as you'll see in an American horse in regards to being suited for distance. He has stamina galore in his pedigree.

Premium Tap will definitely be on my tickets at a price. Good post BBB.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by todko

Premium Tap has a legitimate shot to win this race. The breeding is a factor at 10f (along with everything else). Was at Turfway when Kent D. nearly killed him. He looked magnificent. He's really rounded into form and he will be running at the end.

The downside to breeding is that people look at the damsire on the pps and they don't look beyond that. They see a damsire associated with speed and assume the horse can't get a distance. Look at the 5 generation pedigree and you'll see a lot more. I don't stay away from Carson City as a damsire because I know that although he ran as a lightning fast sprinter he has stamina influences too. Any damsire from the Mr. Prospector line is often underappreciated as a source of stamina.

I would be seriously surprised if Sun King finished ahead of Premium Tap. Premium Tap has a much better pedigree to get the distance, he's well trained, he's in good form.

If you're a dosage guru PT has a CD of 0.07 -- about as good as you'll see in an American horse in regards to being suited for distance. He has stamina galore in his pedigree.

Premium Tap will definitely be on my tickets at a price.

I think that with firsters, using pedigree is one thing, but Sun King has been around for a while... IMO, he's proven he can go 10 furlongs.

[todko]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I think that with firsters, using pedigree is one thing, but Sun King has been around for a while... IMO, he's proven he can go 10 furlongs.

I think he can too -- he certainly won't fall apart completely at 10f. I just don't think he can beat Premium Tap at that distance. Or Bernardini or Perfect Drift.

I still don't know what to make of Invasor versus a good field. I have a lot of questions about horses that run against weak fields.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by todko

I think he can too -- he certainly won't fall apart completely at 10f. I just don't think he can beat Premium Tap at that distance. Or Bernardini or Perfect Drift.

I still don't know what to make of Invasor versus a good field. I have a lot of questions about horses that run against weak fields.

So, you have questions about Bernardini too? LOL