If you like Sun King in the Classic...

#1 10-24-2006, 01:01 PM

you have a different form than I do. He is bred to go a mile and an eighth. He has attempted ten furlongs, five times*. He has never finished in the same zip code as the winner, in ANY of his attempts.

As for the disparagement of Premium Tap's chances, once again, we differ. Here is a Grade I winner, with a run all day pedigree, that figures a perfect trip. Anyone who says he is a need the lead type, did not see his last, and more than a few previous performances. His connections are investing $150K to run and granted Prado's request to ride. His last work was oustanding, outworking about a dozen other cup hopefuls at the same distance.

Differences of opinion between handicappers are ubiquitous however, and races are run on the track, not on websites. Nevertheless, Sun King is being asked to do something he has never done and is not bred to do; while Premium Tap, without serious trouble in his last would be entering off a dominating performance. Your call. * One race was 1 3/16's. BBB

King Glorious · #2 10-24-2006, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

you have a different form than I do. He is bred to go a mile and an eighth. He has attempted ten furlongs, five times*. He has never finished in the same zip code as the winner, in ANY of his attempts.

As for the disparagement of Premium Tap's chances, once again, we differ. Here is a Grade I winner, with a run all day pedigree, that figures a perfect trip. Anyone who says he is a need the lead type, did not see his last, and more than a few previous performances. His connections are investing $150K to run and granted Prado's request to ride. His last work was oustanding, outworking about a dozen other cup hopefuls at the same distance.

Differences of opinion between handicappers are ubiquitous however, and races are run on the track, not on websites. Nevertheless, Sun King is being asked to do something he has never done and is not bred to do; while Premium Tap, without serious trouble in his last would be entering off a dominating performance. Your call. * One race was 1 3/16's. BBB

And less we forget, hasn't Premium Tap finished ahead of Sun King twice this year already?

slotdirt · #3 10-24-2006, 01:15 PM

Just for my information, aside from last year's Classic, Derby, and the mile and 3/16 race in the Preakness, where else has Sun King run 10 furlongs?

slotdirt · #4 10-24-2006, 01:16 PM

Last year's JCGC as well, where he finished third (gasp!!).

I think all results pre-2006 for Sun King can absolutely be tossed. THis is a changed horse from 3YO to 4YO seasons.

#5 10-24-2006, 01:16 PM

I have four words for you:

Cat Thief and Behrens.

Your above statement could easily be said for the two horses above. Cat Thief was 1 - 11 in 1999 and wasnt even in the same zip code going 10 furlongs. But he got the job done.

But as you said--this is why they run the race. I will look for Sun King to finish ahead of Premium Tap.

SCUDSBROTHER · #6 10-24-2006, 01:17 PM

Sun King appears to be best at 7f-1 mile.

slotdirt · #7 10-24-2006, 01:22 PM

I just love to hear folks bashing a horse who has WPS in 12 different graded races at various distances over nine different tracks and won just shy of $2 million over the last two years.

Buffymommy · #8 10-24-2006, 01:25 PM

I for one like Sun King over Tap. Sun King is getting good at the right time.

King Glorious · #9 10-24-2006, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Last year's JCGC as well, where he finished third (gasp!!).

I think all results pre-2006 for Sun King can absolutely be tossed. THis is a changed horse from 3YO to 4YO seasons.

One thing about him that hasn't changed though is that he's STILL not a grade one winner. What has happened is that he's not gotten better but all of the good horses that were running with him last year are retired or injured so he's just facing weaker so he's looking better.

Pointg5 · #10 10-24-2006, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One thing about him that hasn't changed though is that he's STILL not a grade one winner. What has happened is that he's not gotten better but all of the good horses that were running with him last year are retired or injured so he's just facing weaker so he's looking better.

When they invent a time machine to bring back those other good horses, let me know...

King Glorious · #11 10-24-2006, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

When they invent a time machine to bring back those other good horses, let me know...

They won't need to. There are some better ones that he'll be facing in the Classic, namely Bernardini, Lava Man, and George Washington. I say Sun King gets nowhere close to them at the finish. He's one of the most overrated horses in training. Never won a grade one race. Only stakes wins this year are in sprints and all of a sudden, he's a serious contender in the world's best 10f race? Please.

Pointg5 · #12 10-24-2006, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

They won't need to. There are some better ones that he'll be facing in the Classic, namely Bernardini, Lava Man, and George Washington. I say Sun King gets nowhere close to them at the finish. He's one of the most overrated horses in training. Never won a grade one race. Only stakes wins this year are in sprints and all of a sudden, he's a serious contender in the world's best 10f race? Please.

That's where you are showing your obvious bias against him, you are saying that he won't be running against the horses from last year to say he hasn't improved, what's that got to do with who he's run against this year? Then you switch your arguement by pointing out the horses he will face this year...I happen to like Sun King, I don't think he will win, but a 2nd or 3rd wouldn't surprise me, he ran a nice Met Mile and his race against Invasior was pretty good. Think critically, not with a bias towards a horse...I am no fan of Bernardini, but I acknowledge his imense talent...

blackthroatedwind · #13 10-24-2006, 01:35 PM

KG is just mad they aren't running Sun King in the BC Steeplechase this coming weekend.

Tracy Farmer really needs to start thinking outside the box!

cakes44 · #14 10-24-2006, 01:37 PM

Sun King has run in 20-some races. Who cares how he's bred anymore?

#15 10-24-2006, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

And less we forget, hasn't Premium Tap finished ahead of Sun King twice this year already?

Yeah in two paceless races. I'm projecting a hot pace in the BCC, which I think is rational. The hotter the pace, the better SK should run, and the worse PT should.

slotdirt · #16 10-24-2006, 01:38 PM

Volponi, Alphabet Soup, and Concern all were not GI winners prior to the Breeders Cup. Black Tie Affair's only GI win coming into the Classic was the Iselin at 9 furlongs.

So basically in Breeders Cup Classic history, a first time grade I winner takes the race around 14 percent of the time.

King Glorious · #17 10-24-2006, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

That's where you are showing your obvious bias against him, you are saying that he won't be running against the horses from last year to say he hasn't improved, what's that got to do with who he's run against this year? Then you switch your arguement by pointing out the horses he will face this year...I happen to like Sun King, I don't think he will win, but a 2nd or 3rd wouldn't surprise me, he ran a nice Met Mile and his race against Invasior was pretty good. Think critically, not with a bias towards a horse...I am no fan of Bernardini, but I acknowledge his imense talent...

I'm saying that the horses he's been facing thus far this year are inferior to what he was facing last year so that's why he's been looking better but in the Classic, he's going to face better horses than he's ever faced and will get his head handed to him yet again. He looks good against bad horses, bad against good ones. I would be shocked if he finishes in the top half of the field. I think Bernadini, Lava Man, George Washington, David Junior, Brother Derek, Premium Tap, Invasor, and Perfect Drift will all finish ahead of him.

slotdirt · #18 10-24-2006, 01:47 PM

I missed that point on Sun King's breeding. His sire, obviously, was pretty good at 10f, and Summer Squall was no slouch at either 10f or the mile and three sixteenths distance. To say Sun King wasn't bred to go long is downright preposterous.

blackthroatedwind · #19 10-24-2006, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm saying that the horses he's been facing thus far this year are inferior to what he was facing last year so that's why he's been looking better but in the Classic, he's going to face better horses than he's ever faced and will get his head handed to him yet again. He looks good against bad horses, bad against good ones. I would be shocked if he finishes in the top half of the field. I think Bernadini, Lava Man, George Washington, David Junior, Brother Derek, Premium Tap, Invasor, and Perfect Drift will all finish ahead of him.

Huh? He lost the Whitney by a head to Invasor who is clearly better than virtually every horse he faced last year.

I'm not singing his praises for this race, though I think he has a reasonable chance to get a piece, but you are not making logical sense ( again ).

Scav · #20 10-24-2006, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I missed that point on Sun King's breeding. His sire, obviously, was pretty good at 10f, and Summer Squall was no slouch at either 10f or the mile and three sixteenths distance. To say Sun King wasn't bred to go long is downright preposterous.

Supposedly horses get stamina from their mare side, which I have never really understood how the mare can throw stamina, but I am guessing this is why he is saying this, as if i recall, Clever Trick is there somewhere