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#22
11-05-2016, 09:43 PM
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Another great job by you Steve and a profitable one too... found this site and the radio show 4 years ago. I am only a weekend player since the late 70 's and this experience has added so much to my game and an understanding of this great sport......keep up the great work and thank you so much!
 
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#23
11-06-2016, 08:04 AM
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Thanks so much. The very special day was great but I especially appreciate the acknowledgement of the show and it's information. The guests delivered virtually every interesting winner and key underneaths including Nick Luck's brilliant assessment of Queen's Trust, Peter Eurton & Mark Casse's updates on Champagne Room and Classic Empire (and Valadorna), NTamm.Hammer/DeRosa on Tamarkuz, plus strong pushes on Tourist, Finest City and Om. Even Ken Ramsey's visit helped focus on Oscar Performance and Kitten's Cat. Hope everyone got something they used to their benefit over the weekend and enjoyed Cup! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#24
11-06-2016, 08:16 AM
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Not sure why you thought Chrome losing prevented me from the very hard to swallow beat of Om to start the sequence. I went 5 of 6. The photo cost perhaps $350,000-400,000. Particularly pleased that the $18 'All A' play produced the $1,003 pop as many small bankroll players came along. Hope it made the difference for them on the weekend. As mentioned above, the show is responsible year after year with helping identify the prime players for these challenging two days. Benefits me as much as the listeners.. Even getting to the winners isn't necessarily a guarantee of connecting all the dots, but the last two years have produced especially strong results. Hope you did well this weekend.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#25
11-06-2016, 08:20 AM
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Thanks. And hondo, there's no feedback that means more to me than hearing that the work has brought players into the game, back to the game or given them more pleasure out of the game. That's the core focus of what I'm trying to do. Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#27
11-06-2016, 12:36 PM
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Great job as usual Steve. I've been listening since the days of JJ & Sam and you were a part time contributor, even before the hurricane knocked you off the air for a while. The show has come a long way since then, in fact it's really a completely different show. Congrats on all the winners you always give out, but i have a request. Someday when you have time explain when and where you protect on your pk4's-5's, such as the first sequence where a "C" pick came in and saved the day with a 27k payout. Perhaps sometime when posting picks you could just add a line such as " substituting this "C" for this "a,b" in race whatever. I am assuming that you had more than 1 pick 5 ticket and did they cost the same? I don't get to the races much nor can I bet on line (Texas) so my handicapping abilities are null and void. I'm looking forward to recap this week and you and all your listeners keep up the good work.
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#28
11-06-2016, 11:40 PM
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P5 Grid: 1: 6-10 (A), 1-3-9 (B), 2-4 (C) 2: 4 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C) 3: 8-12-13 (A), 4-11 (B), 2-7-9 (C) 4: 3-4-10 (A), - (B), 2-6-7-11 (C) 5: 8-11 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C) AAAAA: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 * 1.5 = $54 BAAAA: 3x1x3x3x2 = 54 * 1 = $54 AABAA: 2x1x2x3x2 = 24 * 1 = $24 CAAAA: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 *.5 = $18 ACAAA: 2x2x3x3x2 = 72 * .5 = $36 AACAA: 2x1x3x3x3 = 54 * .5 = $27 AAACA: 2x1x3x4x3 = 72 * .5 = $36 AAAAC: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 * .5 = $18 BABAA: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 * .5 = $18 Total cost = $275 ... which using the above, the AACA ticket came through for a cool $23,700.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#29
11-06-2016, 11:43 PM
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Unbelievable handicapping Steve, and hope you found enough time to bet your opinions as there were some monster scores here. The pick 6 miss is brutal for sure, especially when your key thought was turnbacks were the way to go. But to even be that close on BC day with a small ticket is a testament to how good the approach was.
And most of all, incredible coverage all week.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#30
11-07-2016, 06:30 AM
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Thanks.. Hope you had a great Cup. I've provided links to Crist A-B-C-X ticketing before and Exotic Betting itself is the best guide... Intro: http://helloracefans.com/features/le...o-exotic-bets/ Exotic Betting: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/19...6YW3HWK55XCGG2 Phil gives the basic principles above, though you don't really need to weigh ($1.50, $1, .50) tickets on P5's and especially on days like Cup. Getting .50 on the combos is fine given the payouts. A simple hybrid approach to the P5 (without layers of coverage with A's and 2 B's for instance) was $189.. The $75 'caveman' ticket of the A's+B's (5x1x5x3x2 = 150 x .50 = $75) and then 5 backup tickets with the C's and A's, another $114: 1: 2-4 with 4 with 8-12-13 with 3-4-10 with 8-11 - $18 2: 6-10 with 2-8 with 8-12-13 with 3-4-10 with 8-11 - $36 3: 6-10 with 4 with 2-7-9 with 3-4-10 with 8-11 - $18 4: 6-10 with 4 with 8-12-13 with 2-6-7-11 with 8-11 - $24 5: 6-10 with 4 with 8-12-13 with 3-4-10 with 1-7 - $18 I hope that explains the concept. When I have opportunity to fully flesh out analysis I do, but time is at an incredible premium for me on Classic Weekends and Breeders' Cup and the grid is the best way I can offer players of all levels my view of the day. I've tried to make it easiest for less experienced players with things like the small budget All A's play. The best way to fully absorb the most comprehensive multi-race approach and build tickets from your opinions (and any one else's feathered in) is to read Crist's book. Best of luck always, Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#32
11-07-2016, 12:44 PM
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Agree that there is no need to press the tickets on the p5, or really even the p4 on most big days... The extra coverage is worth more.
As an example, I pressed my Highland Reel p3 ticket (4 units vs 2 units on Found) but did not press on the (unsuccessful) p4 tickets.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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