Belmont Stakes Field

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Do you really think Summer Bird is the most likely winner? You could really cash in at Bodog which is offering 30-1 on Summer Bird.

--Dunbar

The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by CSC

The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

the added distance should suit him perfectly. He's definitely one I'm not throwing out of any exotics I'm playing.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by CSC

The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

The Derby wasn't too big a jump for Summer Bird... Too big a jump for Chris Rozier, yes... but for the colt, no.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

Having an opinion early on is termed 'opening the flood gates'?

I'm just not into opinions on races that are 11 days away which include a likely strong 2nd choice (if not favorite) that isn't committed and a field that is in flux overall. If Rachel doesn't go, can't that fraud Charitable Man go wire-to-wire? Or might someone drop in late that has a bit of speed? Maybe it will rain?

There are too many variables in my opinion to make a conclusive remark about a horse winning a race 11 days away.

NT

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm just not into opinions on races that are 11 days away which include a likely strong 2nd choice (if not favorite) that isn't committed and a field that is in flux overall. If Rachel doesn't go, can't that fraud Charitable Man go wire-to-wire? Or might someone drop in late that has a bit of speed? Maybe it will rain?

There are too many variables in my opinion to make a conclusive remark about a horse winning a race 11 days away.

NT

Fraud? Please expound.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Fraud? Please expound.

I think his Peter Pan win looked better than it really was given some of the extenuating circumstances (trip, track condition, runner-up who hung).

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The Derby wasn't too big a jump for Summer Bird... Too big a jump for Chris Rozier, yes... but for the colt, no.

Chris Rosier, now I have been making a case of not betting Jockies but he would have tested my belief system had he been named the jock for the Belmont.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm just not into opinions on races that are 11 days away which include a likely strong 2nd choice (if not favorite) that isn't committed and a field that is in flux overall. If Rachel doesn't go, can't that fraud Charitable Man go wire-to-wire? Or might someone drop in late that has a bit of speed? Maybe it will rain?

There are too many variables in my opinion to make a conclusive remark about a horse winning a race 11 days away.

NT

If Rachel Alexandra doesn't run, I will be very dissapointed...To me the value of SB should be good so in this instance I have no trouble declaring him now, he's going to be on my tix anyway.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think his Peter Pan win looked better than it really was given some of the extenuating circumstances (trip, track condition, runner-up who hung).

NT

I thought he was a pretty solid two year old and the Peter Pan was a good stepping stone coming off the injury and awful Bluegrass performance.

I agree with you though that I'd be looking at early speed types with Dunkirk, Mine That Bird, Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird lining up thus far.

[colt 45ss]

mr hot stuff
this is his moment
and for the all erotic exotic
mr hot stuff on top of choclate candy and rachel

[Sightseek]

Anybody?

Originally Posted by colt 45ss

mr hot stuff
this is his moment
and for the all erotic exotic
mr hot stuff on top of choclate candy and rachel

God damnit. Here I am trying to take a 3 week break from this nonsense and you had to go and post this. May the lord strike you down with AIDS.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by CSC

The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

"seen less likely winners" is a far cry from declaring SB the winner. I like the horse and would bet him at a price myself, but that's different than thinking he's the most likely winner. He could end up a good bet (or even the best bet) from a value standpoint, but it would take a few defections to make SB the most likely winner.

--Dunbar

[LooseOnTheLead]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think his Peter Pan win looked better than it really was given some of the extenuating circumstances (trip, track condition, runner-up who hung).
NT

I call that a picture perfect prep second off a long layoff.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by LooseOnTheLead

I call that a picture perfect prep second off a long layoff.

Yes, you're right...it was exactly what he needed in order to win. I'll bet against it happening again.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Yes, you're right...it was exactly what he needed in order to win. I'll bet against it happening again.

NT

Me too. I don't get him at all.

[colt 45ss]

coach ouch
but its mr hot stuff you have to worry about

[LooseOnTheLead]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Yes, you're right...it was exactly what he needed in order to win. I'll bet against it happening again.

NT

the fact that he won or lost means absolutely nothing to me, whats important is that it sets him up perfectly to run a career best race next time out. you cant draw it up better than this.He may not win but the most likely result for him is a new top in the Belmont, something very few horses do.GL

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by LooseOnTheLead

I call that a picture perfect prep second off a long layoff.

You do realize Charitable Man's Peter Pan was the epitome of a perfect trip while sitting off a runaway leader getting the run of the race, and coming home in nearly 13 seconds for the last 1/8th of a mile even after running at a comfortable pace early while getting that perfect trip. But Charitable Man is the horse to beat in the Belmont and based off that he absolutely wants 1 1/2 miles...

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by LooseOnTheLead

the fact that he won or lost means absolutely nothing to me, whats important is that it sets him up perfectly to run a career best race next time out. you cant draw it up better than this.He may not win but the most likely result for him is a new top in the Belmont, something very few horses do.GL

How the hell do you figure his Peter Pan win sets him up to run a career best race? Is it the 3rd off a layoff that you really like?

I simply can't see how someone could take a perfect trip winner who had everything go his way and say in such a matter-of-fact way that he's gonna run an even better race in arguably the most grueling race in America.

NT