Breeders's Cup '14 - Friday Analysis

[Kitan]

Race 1:
#1 Mum's Truckee: I like the cutback and freshening. Ran well in her only start down the hill.
#7 Night Song: Import has had tons of time to prepare and seems very live.
#11 Intoxicating Move: Every race she's run down the hill has been good enough to win this and she'll be a bit of value.

Race 2:
Big Kick, Big Cazanova, Mystery Train...this might be a world record half mile for a marathon race...
#9 Cary Street: Career best when trying a similar distance and he may not have liked the slop last time. Dangerous on the bounce back.
#3 Irish Surf: Dam was a dirt champion and his only two on this surface were early in his career over much shorter. This is much easier and he'll be coming late.
#8 Volkonsky: Three dirt races were some of the best on his form. This is a huge step up but the pace will suit and who knows what can happen at these distances...

Race 3:
#7 Ashley's Sassy: Really relished the dirt and speed duel last time and should get similar conditions again.
#5 Easter Fever: Game in defeat and should once more be there at the finish.
#1 Stormy Adieu: May have been a tad short last time and the rail will help.

Race 4:
#8 Flamboyant: Dull effort in the DMR Derby when put in the wrong position to win. Freshened up and working well to turn things around.
#10 Long On Value: Always seems to be a little edgy and with a lack of pace in here maybe they'll just let him roll this time, assuming they read the form. Graded stakes placed and continues to improve.
#2 Talco: Impressive NA debut given the pace as mentioned above. No reason he can't improve with the acclimatization.
#6 Enterprising: Another that was compromised by the pace scenario in that race. Should be much closer today and will be the highest odds he's been since his debut. Does seem best suited to a mile, however.

Race 5:
#2 Midnight Hawk: There is an abundance of speed signed up here and I envision this one using his advantageous post to sit right behind the top flight. Seems to be working best of the Baffert trio.
#6 Magic Mark: Another that's working well who should sit right on the flank of the leaders. Ellis has high numbers off this type of layoff.

Race 6 (Juvenile Turf):
#4 Commemorative: Has improved massively with every start and there's no reason for that not to continue. Has early foot which is vital because outside of the Ward horses, who won't duel, there doesn't seem to be much pace. Should get first run on the leader and will be tough to run down.
#7 War Envoy: Hasn't yet progressed to his potential. Has been being beaten by the second tier 2yos and was barely in front of #9 when getting a much easier trip. Wasn't overly sold on his chances but forced to move him up with the scratch of Aktabantay.
#10 Startup Nation is the best of the North Americans, while #2 Daddy D T and #6 Conquest Typhoon also have chances to hit the board.

Race 7 (Dirt Mile):
I am struggling to envision a scenario in which #1 Goldencents loses this race. Simply, no one here is good enough or fast enough. With the rail draw he won't need a bias and even though favourites have an appalling record in this race, he is the most likely winner this weekend.
#6 Golden Ticket will be running on late again and might be worth tossing in as moneybags become available if the fav somehow gets beat, #7 Bronzo intrigues a bit with his acceleration in the stretch but might not be this quality, and #9 Tapiture would have been of more interest if Asmusssen wasn't 1 for 35 in the last 5 years with 3yos not named Untapable in G1 races.

Race 8 (Juvenile Fillies Turf):
This is another 2yo race where there doesn't appear to be much speed aside from the Ward runner, who might even take back, and that will suit #5 Isabella Sings. A debut winner in a flashy time and IMO ran the better race of the two coming out of the Natalma. Steps in here fresh with room to improve and has been working well at Belmont.
#10 Quality Rocks: Even though she still ran good I feel like we didn't see her best in her turf and Mott debut as that was a weirdly run race. At the very least it showed she can handle the surface and her first two lifetime starts make her very competitive in this spot. Another one that should be suited by the pace and the odds are more than juicy for a more than capable outfit.
#9 Lady Zuzu: This one was always meant to route on the turf, showing her true colours when getting the chance to do so. Has the tactical speed to put herself in a dangerous spot and would not be surprised to see this one blowing up the tote.
#2 Osaila: The most likely of the Euros. Full sis won a G3 over 9f at The Curragh and this one won a prestigious event at Newmarket when last seen. Connections have been quite unsuccessful venturing over here in the past and that is the concern.
#4 Lady Eli and #1 Partisan Politics are the two from Chad that I'm most interested in but I still feel that they're a notch below.

Race 9 (Distaff):
Quite a few of these like to be on the lead early and that paints a perfect picture for #7 Don't Tell Sophia. Never been out of the money in 17 starts on dirt/AWT making her the definition of consistent, and 50% overall strike rate is not too shabby in its own right. A threepeat would be far from a surprise.
There's not much to say about #10 Untapable. All three of her losses come with valid excuses and she's the one to beat.
#1 L'Amour de Ma Vie: The X-factor who has been keeping good company on both turf and AWT. KY bred with dirt only on the dam side so it's not out of reach that she'll take to the surface. The connections have reported in French media that they think it won't be a problem, and seeing as how they could have run her in the F&M Turf it is something to think about. Aside from the one poor performance in the Jebel Hatta where she was very keyed up, Guyon has had a lot of success with her. Potential.
#6 Stanwyck is not one I'd endorse to win, but she can plod on to boost the exotics.

Race 10:
#11 Whine for Wine: Only poor race came when he was up close through sizzling fractions. 3yo eligible to keep improving and has an awesome worktab off a three month layoff.

$1 Pick Five
Race 1: 1, 7, 11
Race 2: 3, 9
Race 3: 5, 7
Race 4: 2, 6, 8, 10
Race 5: 2, 6
$96

$1 Early Pick Four
Race 3: 1, 5, 7
Race 4: 2, 6, 8, 10
Race 5: 2, 6
Race 6: 4
$24

$1 Middle Pick Four
Race 6: 4, 7, 10
Race 7: 1, 6
Race 8: 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, 10
Race 9: 1, 7, 10
$108

$1 Late Pick Four
Race 7: 1, 6
Race 8: 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, 10
Race 9: 7, 10
Race 10: 11
$24

Good luck!