Keeneland 4/8 Pick 4 plays

ateamstupid · #1 04-08-2015, 12:35 PM

KEE 1 2YO F MSW 50k 4 1/2 F
First 2-year-old race of the year in North America as far as I know. Of course, you immediately have to look to Wesley Ward's pair: #1 Bruised Orange and #9 Love the Kitten (I can't believe there are still any unused Kitten names left). The latter is bred to be OK, but also looks like she wants to go longer and there are a few other interesting runners in here. #2 Bella Vaquera sports a best-of-35 gate work and another fast half at Evangeline a week prior. John Hancock also has a potentially nice pair of fillies in #6 Elona and #8 One Minute who lure Lanerie and Geroux respectively.

KEE 2 3+ CLM30kN2L 23k 7 F
Not much clever to say here. #2 Whyruawesome is the horse to beat as the controlling speed, while second choice #6 Tony B looks like the clear alternative if things get a little too hot up front for the favorite.

A: 2,6

KEE 3 4+ OC80k/N3X 64k 1 1/16 M
This is one of a few redraws from the cancelled second half of Friday's opening day card and it's a super competitive six-horse field where it's possible to make cases for all of them. #1 Rapscallion has proven dangerous with a clear lead and moves up with the possibility of a wet track and while he could potentially face other speed to his outside, #2 A.P. Indian has proven very tractable going long and #3 Transparent likely won't be asked to use his speed under Leparoux. #6 Geothermal is interesting around his morning line price, as he appears to have found a home as a dirt router and ran a bang-up race last out at FG. This is now his third start off a lengthy layoff and Margolis makes the right call not to offer him for a tag again.

A: 1,2,3,6
B: 4,5

KEE 4 4+ CLM10k 18k 1 1/16 M
One of those funny races where looking at the entrants, you'd think KEE still has the polytrack in with all the synth shippers. To me, this race is about finding the real dirt horses and #7 Brigade seems a good place to start. His form of late is pretty dreadful with the big outlier being his wire-to-wire score at 12-1 over the CD dirt that earned him an 80 Beyer. The issue is speed is his biggest asset and another top contender, #10 Chief's Revenge, figures to be intent on the lead as well. The likelihood of those two locking horns leads me to #9 Harborplace for Tim Glyshaw. He's had tough luck getting paces to materialize in front of him, only really seeing one in a tough optional claimer at FG where he was caught wide around the track. If Chief's Revenge can lay off the pace a little bit, he's the horse to beat, as he was way best in his last at Sam Houston, doing all the dirty work and opening a clear lead before getting run down in the final strides by a perfect-trip closer. Larry Holt's pair of closers, #4 Leak Hunter and #11 Ephram S have to be used in some capacity as well.

A: 9,10
B: 7
C: 4,11

KEE 5 4+ F/M ALWN1X 60k 1 1/16 M (T)
On turf, this race clearly appears to go through the Euro shippers, #3 Radiator, a Juddmonte filly out of the terrific Heat Haze, #6 Lahinch Classics for Chad Brown who missed snagging a Group 2 at The Curragh by a nose and #9 Eastern Belle for Graham Motion who was a nice fourth in a Group 1 at Goodwood. The top American options appear to be a cut below with #2 Creative Spirit, #5 Peneleput, #7 Zloty and #12 Jester and Me.

A: 3,6,9
B: none
C: 2,5,7,12

Early Pick 4
$.50 2,6/ALL/7,9,10/3,6,9 54
$.50 2,6/1,2,3,6/4,11/3,6,9 24
$.50 2,6/1,2,3,6/9,10/2,5,7,12 32
110

KEE 6 3YO MSW 58k 6 F
Another redraw, this is an interesting circumstance where we actually already got a look at the board in this firster-laden field before it along with the rest of the card was canceled on Friday. Unsurprisingly, Tevis McCauley's #5 Wild and Unbridled was taking a lot of money off of two 58-and-change works and his breeding is about as win-early as you can get. #9 Boone Station also took a lot of play and has been tearing it up in the mornings for Kiaran McLaughlin. #8 How About Him is very logical as well, running a respectable 4th in the key 2/21 FG heat behind Yockey's Warrior. #4 Greek Week also should be used with a plethora of fast works on the tab for Margolis.

A: 5
B: 4,8,9

KEE 7 3YO F/M ALWN1X 60k 1 1/16 M
This is a wide-open race. #11 Genre will probably be favored for Pletcher off some bullet works and she can certainly win, but there's a lot going on in here. Firstly, #8 Pramedya ran a big race to win her debut going away at TAM and she gives the impression the more ground the better. #6 Ahh Chocolate also closed very strongly to score at 24-1 first out for patient Neil Howard and galloped out like a beast. #4 Rapid Rhythm also made a giant close to dead-heat for the win in her debut. That was on turf, but she's bred to route on dirt. All three of those second-timers look to have potential. Michael Matz's pair of #1 Sing Lady Sing and #3 Dreaming of Leah are dangerous if only because of the presences of Castellano and Velazquez with a Pletcher in the race. #7 Broadway View got bet off the board in her two starts and beat a strong maiden field in her debut, but she faces other speed to her outside and is bred to be a sprinter. Very tough race.

A: 4,6,8
B: 1,2,3,10
C: 5,7,9,11

KEE 8 4+ OC62k/N2X 62k 1 1/16 M
Another very deep race, but I'm attacking this race with the expectation that the pace will collapse. There are a lot of talented horses in here, but many of them have similar running styles and I don't want any of the speeds on top. That leaves me with #3 Top Billing, who really had no chance last out off a 365-day layoff in a race dominated up front by Encryption. He should get a more favorable setup today and I personally would like to see him fulfill the potential he showed at 3. The others I'll use are #4 Matrooh -- who beat a suspect field at Gulfstream but did so impressively off a 492-day layoff in his first North American race -- and #6 Cougar Ridge, who has enough tactical speed to stalk the pace if it somehow doesn't get hot up front.

A: 3,4,6
B: none
C: none

KEE 9 4+ F/M STRALW7500 21k 7 F
Tough to get past Mike Maker (#7 Greek Life) and his protege Joe Sharp (#11 First Whippoorwill) in here. I'll use #3 Sluiceway as a backup, as her last two races were enormous improvements over her previous form, but I need to see her do it on dirt.

A: 7
B: 11
C: 3

Late Pick 4
$.50 4,5,8,9/1,2,3,4,6,8,10/3,4,6/7,11 84
$.50 5/4,5,6,7,8,9,11/3,4,6/7 10.50
$.50 5/4,6,8/3,4,6/3 4.50
99

209 total investment. G/L!

Kitan · #2 04-08-2015, 02:44 PM

GL in the last of the early p4!

ateamstupid · #3 04-08-2015, 04:47 PM

I hate that short stretch so fuc king much. Unbelievable that the 11 was able to hold on. Gonna cost me the late Pick 4.

ateamstupid · #4 04-08-2015, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Early Pick 4
$.50 2,6/ALL/7,9,10/3,6,9 54
$.50 2,6/1,2,3,6/4,11/3,6,9 24
$.50 2,6/1,2,3,6/9,10/2,5,7,12 32
110

Late Pick 4
$.50 4,5,8,9/1,2,3,4,6,8,10/3,4,6/7,11 84
$.50 5/4,5,6,7,8,9,11/3,4,6/7 10.50
$.50 5/4,6,8/3,4,6/3 4.50
99

209 total investment. G/L!

Early Pick 4 pays $212.20

Beaten one jump out of the Late Pick 4