Quick Derby Betting Question

[bigjag0716]

I apologize if this has already been asked, I can't seem to find it and forgot if it was offered last year, but will there be 50 cent Trifecta Wagering for the Derby? Thanks in advance.

[tywizard]

Yes.

http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...mes-wager-menu

[bigjag0716]

Thanks man

[richard burch]

I know who I'm going with but one thing noticed in the PP's is that there are a lot of horses that want to be on the front end. We might have a pace meltdown setting up for a long shot closer.

American Pharaoh,Dortmund,Carpe Diem, Materiality, Stanford Ocho Ocho ...all seem to want to be on the gas.

Firing Line, Upstart, Itsaknockout, Danzig Moon...the stalkers

War Story, International Star, El Kabeir,Frosted, Far Right ...the closers


Makes you wonder....

[senator L]

To me there aren't many horses that are speed balls.
I think you have to think of the jocks that will be sending
and horses in the post parade that are on their toes and
maybe who have had some fast works: El Kabier and Danzig Moon
come to mind. I think both AP and Dortmund will both be in the
first flight and think the first 1/4 will be in 23 and up.
IMO this group isn't very fast early - will see in the pp's Sun am

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by senator L

To me there aren't many horses that are speed balls.
I think you have to think of the jocks that will be sending
and horses in the post parade that are on their toes and
maybe who have had some fast works: El Kabier and Danzig Moon
come to mind. I think both AP and Dortmund will both be in the
first flight and think the first 1/4 will be in 23 and up.
IMO this group isn't very fast early - will see in the pp's Sun am

Correct! The derby seems to be run differently than most races. But with Dortmund and Pharaoh liking the front you know all it takes is one other cheap speed horse to ruin the fav's day. There are several in here capable of doing that. The last 1/8 is the determining factor.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by richard burch

I know who I'm going with but one thing noticed in the PP's is that there are a lot of horses that want to be on the front end. We might have a pace meltdown setting up for a long shot closer.

American Pharaoh,Dortmund,Carpe Diem, Materiality, Stanford Ocho Ocho ...all seem to want to be on the gas.

Firing Line, Upstart, Itsaknockout, Danzig Moon...the stalkers

War Story, International Star, El Kabeir,Frosted, Far Right ...the closers


Makes you wonder....

Stanford will finish the race last after trying (and not being the slightest bit effective) in pressing a pace he's never seen.

War Story has tried that whole "closing/stalking deal" against much lesser and has failed 3 times in a row in NOLA.

Personally, I think this is a Barbaro-type walk over for American Pharoah.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Stanford will finish the race last after trying (and not being the slightest bit effective) in pressing a pace he's never seen.

War Story has tried that whole "closing/stalking deal" against much lesser and has failed 3 times in a row in NOLA.

Personally, I think this is a Barbaro-type walk over for American Pharoah.

Well if your analysis is right then I'm gonna look good because all a closer needs is some horse like Stanford to make Pharaoh or Dortmund run 1 second faster than he wants too in the first 1/4 mile.

[senator L]

I don't think the Derby is run different than most
it just gets them most attention. There are a ton
of races where some horse will rush to the front
where you thought there was lone speed. Another
race just very, very big

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by richard burch

Correct! The derby seems to be run differently than most races. But with Dortmund and Pharaoh liking the front you know all it takes is one other cheap speed horse to ruin the fav's day. There are several in here capable of doing that. The last 1/8 is the determining factor.

The manner in which Baffert set up Dortmund's final work is very important to consider. I don't know how he normally works, but if this is unique then to me he gave Dortmund a refresher on how to run down a horse because he already knows he's sending AP hard and early, trying to bottom them out a la Bodemeister. I don't think this is great for Dortmund because he generally pulls himself up towards the lead after "rating" for a bit. Trying to do this in traffic with his frame just won't result in a positive outcome. I don't believe that AP can blaze away up front and hold on for the final eighth either.