Saratoga Friday July 31st Analysis

[Kitan]

Thinking they will be ON the turf. It's been warm enough to dry it out.

Race 1:
#6 Slamarama: Didn't run that poorly last year with Worrie and showed at GP he does have some ability. Needed his last and likes the track.
#8 Political Farce: 1 for 16 on fast dirt, with the lone win coming on the inner, so I can try and look past his last.
#10 Mish Mosh: Asmussen 9 0-2-0 off the claim @ SAR.
#1 Partly Mocha
Just feel #3 and #4 are just a bit past it in their old age.

Race 2:
#7 Opie: It wasn't a strong race last time but it was a solid enough turf debut. Dam handled both surfaces but was a router so I think he'll improve going longer. His two dirt routes can be excused. He was back in two weeks for the first and for the second he was at the back of the pack through a slow pace.
#1 Violet Road: Hasn't done anything wrong for the barn yet. Got floated extremely deep on the turf two back and last time out he was caught wide through a slow pace. Skeptical about the work pattern but it's not a tough race.
#5 Hundred Year Storm: Don't know what to do with this horse. These are the types Chad wins with, but you'd think he'd give a filly who got a tough trip as the fav in a MSW another shot in those conditions. No work since the 19th either. Only using in the multis to protect my tickets early.
#12 Myself

Race 3:
#2 Lady Gracenote: Has been facing tougher and has five works to prepare for this for a trainer who does well when bringing them to the Spa.
#7 Bridgetta: If you can ignore the two runs for the Pino barn then 20-1 ML is a monster overlay.
#5 Desert Bliss
#1 Run a Dubb Dubb

Race 4:
#5 Smart Transition: Gets back to the preferred two-turns and I'll take him at a slight price with the 6 lbs weight break.
#2 Stanford
#3 Tekton
#4 Unrivaled

Race 5:
#1 Godrevy: Think he'll really appreciate the stretch-out and is the new face against some of these which haven't been that impressive. Entry-mate may end up on the lead by default and has a chance to wire them.
#8 Indian Trail: Had a poor Pletcher stat for this one last out but even with that disregarded his performance wasn't spectacular. He was close to a quick pace but I felt he could have finished stronger. However, Pletcher conversely does better in these spots and he should run a bit better this time around.
#2 River Date: Played him last time and I'm not sure sweeping up five wide was the right move. Not sure what type of pace he'll run at but at least he showed in Florida that two-turns won't be an issue.
#6 Captain Tim: Definitely has a big chance but if his ML holds he'll be an underlay.
I liked #7 at first as he ran great last time after getting stuck behind a dead one but I'm not sure if he really wants the two-turn 9f.

Race 6:
#4 O'Prado Ole: Obviously something was amiss in the Canadian International, but his three runs prior would all blow these away. He's protected here as he's still eligible for N2X and he is the logical winner if Clement has him ready.
#2 I'll Call: Drops down in conditions for this and I feel he'll appreciate the stretchout.
#1 Sly Tom: 10f winner last out. Needs to improve but that at least shows the distance isn't an issue.
#5 Global Strike

Race 7:
#10 Tennessee: Beaten by a good runner on debut. Pletcher wins these sorts of races and I can't go against him here.
#1 Street Jersey: Two thirds in competitive races as a 2yo. Lasix and blinkers on for 3yo debut and is a contender if he's improved since.
#6 Choir Dancer
#2 Kabang

Race 8:
#5 Brickyard Kitten: Posted four deep going seven panels after breaking on top. Has shown a quick turn of foot since switching to sprints and is proven with a bit of moisture in the ground.
#4 Yes I'm Lucky: Found a very tough spot for his return off 11 months and lost his chance at the start last time. Worth a shot at 20-1 ML.
#8 Stormy Rocit
#13 Two Notch Road

Race 9:
#1 Cousin Stephen: Not a fan of horses Chad has to bring to Parx to win but he wasn't the worst of 3yos last year either. Looking past his last on a sealed fast track at Penn. Does his best running on or near the lead and can get a great stalking trip behind the outside speed.
#5 Catholic Cowboy: Won over this distance here, which was his only route race at SAR to date, last year. Zito only 1 for 19 (8 ITM) 3rd off the layoff at SAR.
#3 Lucky Lotto is SCR...
#2 Matterhorn: Never won around two-turns.

Race 10:
Tough race. Going deep.

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 1: 6, 8
Race 2: 1, 5, 7
Race 3: 2, 5, 7
Race 4: 2, 5
Race 5: 1, 2, 6, 8
$86.40

$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 2: 1, 5, 7
Race 3: 2, 5, 7
Race 4: 2, 3, 5
Race 5: 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
$81.00

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 7: 10
Race 8: 4, 5, 8, 13
Race 9: 1, 2, 5
Race 10: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12
$57.60
Cover: 1, 6/4, 5, 8, 13/1, 5/4, 7, 10 $28.80
$86.40 total

Good luck!