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#1
08-07-2015, 01:16 AM
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Saratoga Friday Aug. 7th Analysis
Race 1:
#8 Mischieviously: Nothing wrong with his last off a slow half and Cornelio has ridden him best. #7 Mach Seven: Less than a length behind my top pick last out and a length clear of #6 before that. His consistency is key here. Parker 17 0-0-0 the last 5 years @ SAR but he's had a successful year overall so far and would win a race like this. #4 Oldwick #5 Bert Stone Rudy very, very average with these types of plungers and I'm staying away from that short price on #6, especially with his barn so icy at the moment. Race 2: #9 Starago: Wanted to play him on July 27th but he didn't draw in. This is what I wrote: First three races of his career in MSW company weren't bad. Ignore the next three on dirt. Faded late in his first start this year, held on well next out considering he blitzed the way up front, and had no favours given at the start as the favourite 15 days later. Broke a step or two slow last out and slowly tugged his way up to chase the leaders under Wilmer. DiPrima has an appalling record with price runners at SAR but I'll take a chance given there's not much else that caught my eye in here. The last sentence still holds true here. #5 Mind Magic #11 Sunny Afternoon #10 Tom's Vision Of course must use #1 underneath. Race 3: #4 It'll Be Fine: Won going two-turns (turf) and his other win came with Castellano up. Two maintenance works for the 3yo who gets the weight break. #1 Matuszak #3 Spider Roll #6 Marine One Race 4: #3 War Ride #2 Watershed #7 Vinegar Joe #5 Come as You Are Race 5: #7 Lismore: Nothing wrong with her form and she ran great in the Florida Oaks given she was well short for that. Also short when hitting the front and getting run down next out and was burned by the early zip last out. Weaver has her ready this time around and the race should be run to suit her better. #11 Ayaady: Given no chance when last through a 51 and change half. Million dollar baby will get more speed (Zuzu) to run at. #3 Mighty Souper: Flew home once he finally got out in a race where they top two were that way at virtually every point. Won a solid MSW on KY Oaks day. #13 Lovely Moon #6 can take them all the way I suppose...#9 didn't run against anything special in France (for example, her competitors couldn't beat Olorda who got smoked in the Belmont Oaks) and the foreign shippers Chad has brought to SAR had run in much better company. Race 6: #4 She's All Ready: Ryerson hasn't had success with 2yo FTS at the Spa but none have had the works this one has. Dam was second twice over this course sprinting. #7 Surprise Cameo: Pletcher does only fairly with 2yo filly NY-bred FTS @ SAR but reports say this one does have some speed. #3 Louisville First: Weaver has won each of the past two years debuting a 2yo on the dirt without Lasix. #11 Champagne Therapy Race 7: #1 Town Extension: Missed a work two back and ran against much tougher last out at 10f. Rough trip his only start on the course. #12 Awesome Sky is SCR... #2 King Ptolemy: Got the win when trying the turf for the first time. Maker 5 3-1-0 with 4yo & up first off the claim in turf routes at the Spa. #4 Dream Man: Needed the run last time and now moves back up in tag. Second last year in near identical conditions behind a runner who came right back to win an OC62.5kN2X. #6 Whoopie Pie: Got a soft lead when winning and could be the default speed once again. Race 8: #7 Nominative: Has won 5 of 9 on the turf and the distance suits perfectly. Can track the outside runner over and get a perfect stalking trip. #1 Love and Marriage: Won her last two and her debut was very good given she was far back through a crawling pace. Chad 9 for 14 bringing horses off layoffs of 180 days or more who won their last start in a race other than a maiden. #6 Bugle #4 Run of the River Race 9: #3 Startup Nation: Inhaled both fields he faced last year over this course, albeit with a bit of pace help. Chad primes his horses third off the shelf; he's 4 for 8 3rd up routing on the turf when 2nd or 3rd last out at SAR). #11 Courtier: There isn't a lot on paper that should challenge him up front. Mott has already won two Graded Stakes this year with horses adding Lasix for the first time. #2 Takeover Target: Found the 10f a tad too far in the G1 and while I feel he might be best suited as a miler does have ability to play a big part in this. #4 Night Prowler: His only poor race is the one he had to check out of but faces a bigger task giving 7lbs to most rivals. Race 10: #12 Gimme Jimmy: Not beaten by much when missing a work as the FAV in a N3L. Given an impossible task when second last off a 51 half the start prior. Nevin hasn't had a great start to the meet but I also haven't liked many of her runners so far. #3 Valseuse: Won early for Clement and hasn't been able to replicate that since, generally against tougher. I don't think she ran poorly last out. #4 Quarla: Usually thereabouts. #6 Eddy's Time: Bomb was 5-2 in the same class when bleeding three back. Used the first up run to gain fitness and speed dominated her last. Favoured and beat Lady Kreesa last year and if she wakes up today the reward will be humongous. $0.60 Pick Five Race 1: 7, 8 Race 2: 5, 9 Race 3: 1, 4 Race 4: 2, 3, 7 Race 5: 3, 7, 11, 13 $57.60 $0.60 Early Pick Four Race 2: 5, 9, 10, 11 Race 3: 1, 4 Race 4: 2, 3, 5, 7 Race 5: 3, 7, 11, 13 $76.80 Cover: 5, 9/1, 4/2, 3/6, 9 $9.60 $86.40 $0.60 Late Pick Four Race 7: 1, 2, 4, 6 Race 8: 1, 7 Race 9: 2, 3, 4, 11 Race 10: 3, 4, 6, 12 $76.80 Cover: 1, 2, 4, 6/4, 6/3/3, 12 $9.60 $86.40 total Good luck! Last edited by Kitan : 08-07-2015 at 11:27 AM. 
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#2
08-07-2015, 10:42 AM
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Thanks for the writeup K. I am on board with a lot of your picks so hopefully we will both be cashing today. A little diff in the 8th as I like Hillhouse High who has had difficulty breaking through the nx2 condition but his races at a mile have been some of his better races.
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