8/29: Saratoga (Day 32; 146th Travers)

Kasept · #1 08-29-2015, 06:24 AM

Travers Day and everything is in place for a memorable afternoon after a special morning at the old plant Friday when 15,000 turned out to watch a single horse gallop. The 2015 racing season has delivered one blockbuster after another and this edition of Travers Day looks to add to the tableau. Let them all get around and come safe..

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 11f-IT (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Belisarius 2-1 WON ($5.70)
Next Best: #8 Grey Wizard 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Request 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Good Response 7-2 2nd

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

First of the day's 3 equally challenging juvy events..

Best Value: #6 Attraction 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Ready Dancer 3-1 WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #8 Virga 5-1 9th
Super Add: #7 Sail Ahoy 10-1 3rd

3rd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Tango Time 5-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #5 Sumba Sunset 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Neck of the Moon 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Coming Attraction 4-1 4th

4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Use as many of these as you can afford. Feels like a chaotic group..

Best Value: #7 Grand Candy 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Conquest Nitro 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Tale of S'avall 10-1 WON ($9.10)
Super Add: #9 Eternal Bird 5-1 5th

5th: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Vigilante 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #7 Seeking Alpha 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Ascend 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 America's Kitten 3-1 5th

P5 Grid:

1: 1 (A), 8 (B), 3-5 (C)
2: 6-9 (A), 2-7-8 (B), - (C)
3: 3 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)
4: 2-7 (A), 3-5-9-10 (B), 4-6-8 (C)
5: 1-7 (A), 2 (B), 3-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x1x6x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
Full (A/B/C): $89

$0.50 Pick-5 (1,2,4/9/3,7/10/1,13) Paid $990.75

P4 Grid:

2: 6-9 (A), 2-7-8 (B), - (C)
3: 3 (A), 5 (B), 1-4-6 (C)
4: 2-7 (A), 3-5-9-10 (B), 4-6-8 (C)
5: 1-7 (A), 2 (B), 3-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x6x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
Full (A/B/C): $85 (With $1 All A's Play)

$0.50 Pick-4 (9/3,7/10/1,13) Paid $227.00

6th: 68th Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Came into this fully expecting to have a case for Untapable to turn tables on Stopchargingmaria, but don't. Sheer Drama hardly impossible of course as alternative to top pair. I've been waiting for a breakthrough from Tiz Windy who would have benefited from the old Ensign trip of 10f..

Most Likely: #4 Stopchargingmaria 2-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Sheer Drama 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #6 Untapable 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Tiz Windy 15-1 6th

7th: 37th Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

La Verdad scratch changes this Ballerina completely. Merry Meadow, Room for Me and Dame Dorothy had figured to line up on the chase of the favorite. Room for Me has the steady improvement Salutos Amigos look under Jacobson's care and offers value..

Best Value: #4 Room for Me 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Merry Meadow 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Dame Dorothy 3-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Street Story 10-1 5th

8th: 31st King's Bishop (G1), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

As always, the plucky nephew of the Travers provides a terrific cast of sophomores seeking stallion-making stripes. Competitive Edge has the classic turnback angle going for him off acting as a noble pinata for Pharoah at Oceanport. Stalks behind the speed and finishes. I mention the stallion plaudits a winner of this race receives, yet Ben Colebrook brings gelded Limosine Liberal here when there are easier spots to glom. Like KMc's Watershed, has unknown ceiling. Holy Boss is horse to beat having done nothing wrong since spring. If you put a line through Grand Bili's race-over-before-it-started break at Pimlico, he's 4/2-2-0..

Most Likely: #3 Competitive Edge 7-2 8th
Next Best: #7 Holy Boss 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Limosine Liberal 30-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Grand Bili 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Watershed 8-1 4th

9th: 36th Forego (G1), 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Very little cleverness to offer here with the remarkable Private Zone the one to catch and the one proves tough pass once you get to him..

Most Likely: #7 Private Zone 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #1 Race Day 6-1 8th
Next Best: #5 The Big Beast 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Salutos Amigos 6-1 5th

10th: 41st Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Flintshire 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #4 Red Rifle 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Messi 10-1
Exotics Use: #1 Imagining 8-1

11th: 146th Travers S. (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD)

Annually the Spa's most anticipated race and for 2015 a circumstance that has elevated the drama to an unprecedented. As with each start now, the fervent hope is that everyone receive the performance from American Pharoah they came to see. He has yet to disappoint and won't today..

Most Likely: #2 American Pharoah 1-5 2nd
Best Value: #10 Smart Transition 20-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Upstart 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Texas Red 8-1 6th

P4 Grid:

8: 3-7 (A), 1-2-4-6-8-11 (B), 5-9-10 (C)
9: 1-7 (A), 5-10 (B), 3-6 (C)
10: 2-4 (A), 1-6 (B), 5-8 (C)
11: 2 (A), - (B), 1-4-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x4x4x1 = $128 x .50 = $64
Full (A/B/C): $78

12th: 27th Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Tepin 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Danza Cavallo 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Dacita 7-2 WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Coffee Clique 5-1 5th

13th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #12 Jax Heritage 7-2 9th
Best Value: #10 All Is Number 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Memories of Peter 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Oklahoma Den 8-1 10th

P4 Grid:

10: 2-4 (A), 1-5-6-8 (B), 3-7 (C)
11: 2 (A), - (B), 1-4-10 (C)
12: 1 (A), 2-4 (B), 3-8 (C)
13: 10-12 (A), 1-3-4-5-6-7 (B), 2-9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x3x8 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $69 (With $1 All A's Play)

Good luck!
Steve