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#1
06-03-2016, 07:41 AM
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6/3: Belmont Park ($22k C/O)
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES 4th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD) $22k C/O starts here.. Cave Johnson has certainly been facing better, but doesn't have a lot of margin for error. 'Likely' but not automatic. Zartax seems to be connecting the dots and runs back without pause for first time in career for dangerous outfit.. Most Likely: #8 Cave Johnson 1-1 WON ($3.60) Best Value: #4 Zartax 12-1 6th Next Best: #7 Zamjara 8-1 4th Exotics Use: #5 Gunlock 12-1 2nd 5th: MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (G/S, P3, DD) Mile and a quarter turf test for a classy looking set of fillies, 4 of which (1-3-7-8) exit the same event run 5/5. Jerkens reaches for Castellano for Truth who found Time and Motion in her debut.. Most Likely: #9 Truth 5-2 5th Best Value: #8 Val D' Isere 12-1 7th Next Best: #3 Texting 7-2 WON ($9.70) Exotics Use: #4 Warranty 5-1 3rd 6th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD) Inspector Lynley logical of course, but there are few things going on here that are worth noting. Gio's Calling was eye-poppingly good breaking maiden in 3yo bow for Lynch and while required to take some step forward here, need not improve all that much to impact at a nice tote. Abbot kept nice company in Florida including a Cutler Bay effort that's on a par with Lynley's Transylvania. Siding Spring returns to his intended surface.. Best Value: #1 Gio's Calling 8-1 5th Next Best: #4 Inspector Lynley 8-5 2nd Exotics Use: #8 Abbot 5-1 9th Super Add: #2 Siding Spring 8-1 4th 7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD) Some rain expected early in the day, but no guarantee Bileaps and Bounds gets the wet strip she favors. Always a wire threat, but presence of Zippity Zoom mitigates that. Top pair could waltz unaccompanied, as you wouldn't expect Kentucky Road to be as forward as last time with Irad getting aboard. Joe Parker brings Mr. Johnson's $250k-earning Kate Is a Ten back for her 6yo debut, and while she rarely misses a paycheck, this feels like a seasonal tightener. Enigmatic Skipalute was 3rd/layoff 3 weeks ago when she dumped Arroyo. Should get the kind of outside stalking trip she likes. Carmouche abandons Arch Or Nothing for Bileaps, but isn't outclassed exiting similar event where she chased next out Bouwerie winner Flatterywillgetyou. Hate this kind of race where one wrinkle can totally change complexion.. Most Likely: #3 Zippity Zoom 7-5 WON ($3.20) Next Best: #5 Bileaps and Bounds 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Skipalute 5-1 3rd 8th: OC/C, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD) As discussed on ATR, stakes quality event marking return of '14 Arlington Million winner Hardest Core for Ned Graham who has been watching for spots to bring him back. Long On Value the central player, but will need to be used early to navigate the dogleg. Vision Perfect (20-1) is for me though in his 4yo debut at big number for streaking David Donk. Need only make natural 3 to 4 progression to succeed here.. Best Value: #2 Vision Perfect 20-1 5th Next Best: #11 Long On Value 7-2 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Jay Gatsby 6-1 WON ($7.50) Super Add: #5 Blacktype 6-1 3rd 9th: CLM. 3+, 8.5f Most Likely: #2 Lure of the South 9-5 WON ($7.10) Best Value: #8 Saint Finian 6-1 6th Next Best: #5 Luckbox Sam 5-1 3rd Exotics Use: #7 Chairman Now 8-1 7th P6 Grid: 4: 8 (A), - (B), 4-5-7 (C) 5: 8-9 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C) 6: 1-4 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C) 7: 3 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C) 8: 2-6-11 (A), - (B), 1-5-10 (C) 9: 2 (A), 8 (B), 1-5-7-9 (C) Simple (A+B): 1x4x4x1x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192 All A's: 1x2x2x1x3x1 = 12 x $2 = $24 $2 Pick-6 (8,10/3/5/3/6,7,8,9,13,14/2,4,9) Paid $32.40 (5OF6) x 4 = 129.60 P4 Grid: 6: 1-4 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C) 7: 3 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C) 8: 2-5-6-11 (A), - (B), 1-10 (C) 9: 2-8 (A), 1-5-7-9 (B), 3-6 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x6 = 96 x $.50 = $48 All A's: 2x1x4x2 = $16 ($8 for $.50) Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 06-03-2016 at 05:56 PM. 
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#2
06-03-2016, 11:47 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
06-03-2016, 09:53 PM
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Late P4 paid lousy, imo.
I was expecting a $350-$400 payout for .50, but I couldn't find the will-pays for the P4 anywhere after race 8. I guess I shouldn't have 'bragged' to my buddy George for hitting it on a $6 ticket until I saw the official payouts. Womp Womp. Onwards and Upwards tomorrow!
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#4
06-04-2016, 01:04 AM
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Was also frustrated by not seeing the will pays for the P4 either, and thought it was going to be about $50-$100 higher. But I'm just glad Lure of the South got up, as I had him singled. Looked like he had zero chance at top of stretch.
Cheers, O
__________________
"Good luck had just stung me, so to the race track I did go" - Levon Helm
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#5
06-04-2016, 01:32 AM
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Quote:
One walked and one just barely got up. I, too, thought the 2 was in major trouble heading into stretch. We live to fight another day, Lord willing!
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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