Saratoga Saturday August 6th

[Kitan]

Race 1:
#7 Giant Brownie: Slow start cost him in a speed-dominated debut. The distance will help, has a stamina-boosting work, and Castellano sticks.
#2 Panama Papers: Solid debut from the aforementioned race and should appreciate the stretchout. Hushion ITM with all 4 2yo non-FTS he's run at SAR.
#1 Brooklyn Bobby: Will take a lot of money, by Frankel, and is reportedly working well. Classy family and dam won 2yo debut down the hill but she has done nothing as a broodmare.
#6 Kid Perfect

Race 2:
#4 Tyler U: Some strong pedigrees in here, but nothing really dazzled me from the FTS so I'll try my luck with this one who showed speed on debut and now adds Lasix.
#5 Daddy's Placer
#6 Northern
#7 Hieroglyphics: Impressed in sales works but have to ask the question why was Pletcher trying him on the grass in the AMs...
#1 working extremely well but Zito would have to pull over the fastest of fast ones...

Race 3:
#8 Grand Sky: Given no chance when slowest to begin from the rail going 107.1 off the shelf. Now has a consistent work pattern and represents value in a race full of speed.
#4 Bajan Summer: By far the most respected on the board last out compared to the other rivals coming out of the same race. Hampered by the front-end domination that day.
#1 Euros to Dollars
#5 River Knight

Race 4:
#6 Neolithic: Took no money for a Pletcher debutant but can put a line through that race after a tangled beginning. Beat a decent MSW field (Majesto, Gettysburg) and note that JV sticks here. Pletcher is 4 for 4 off 200 days or more going route to sprint off a win on the dirt at any track.
#1 Knights Key: Impressive debut win and dangerous if can return to that off the long-term layoff.
#4 Sir Alfred: Not much speed signed up here and he could potentially wire them.
Have to wonder if #3 can repeat off an unexpected romp with Rudy a bit icy at the meet.

Race 5:
#1 Tricked Up: Definitely will benefit from racing experience as he was all over the track down the stretch. Chad 4 for 9 (7 ITM) with second time starters who routed both times in MSW @ SAR, and is 3 for 4 (all ITM, loss was by a neck) with those who ran ITM on debut. If he runs his race he will be the one to beat, but it's wide open behind him.
#5 Sport: Comes out of some key races and picks up Irad.
#7 Ballagh Rocks: Adds Lasix and has a long, consistent string of works. Overlay.
#11 Classy O'Prado: Has finally picked up some form.
#2 will appreciate the stretchout...#8's best race came going long but is unknown on firm turf...#10 is already a "winner" and has a strong turf pedigree, but Gyarmati did relatively exceptionally well with 2yos on the green last year...#12 ran well in his only turf route...wide open if the top two fail to fire.

Race 6:
#8 True Valor: Big, strong filly gets over the ground well and worked an easy 9.4 at the sales with only one early whip tap.
#5 Curlout: Bred to win young and comes in off a dazzling bullet. Curlin's stud fee in 2014 was $25k, so she wasn't undersold as a weanling.
#6 Fillet of Sole: Comes out of the same race as my top pick and should improve off that effort.
#2 Fact Finding: Breezed decently over the turf but may be better suited there going longer.
#3 was never going to beat the 1-9 stable mate on debut but got a world of experience with a troubled run that day and got repelled last out by the Sanford winner, however Casse has a poor record on the dirt at SAR and I'll use solely underneath.

Race 7:
#9 Jay Gatsby: Never run a poor race on firm turf, numbers fit, and you'll get big odds on classy connections. Comes out of a key race to boot.
#1 Shining Copper: Speedster will have to hang on, but he's done it already in both his previous starts over the course.
#6 Ectot: Didn't return to form last year and Pletcher doesn't have the best record with foreign imports but he's by far the classiest runner in the race, with 2 G3s and a G1 at 8f.
#5 March is SCR...
#7 has always had a non-normal work pattern for Mott, but this time it's even more bizarre and I'll try to beat him in a tough race.

Race 8:
#5 Lightstream: Already beaten a couple of these and represents the value returning to a sprint.
#3 Kareena: Filly looks the real deal on paper but will be short odds, has been beaten by the top pick, and just can't seem to get a jockey to stick.
#6 Lewis Bay: Chad is 0/15 (2 ITM) in graded dirt races @ SAR, but this may be the best runner he's had in one of these spots.
#2 One True Kiss: In form and will be coming late.
#7 may be the one to beat, but I will try. Pletcher is 0/13 with 1 ITM (Uncle Mo) going route to sprint in graded stakes at the Spa. Yes, maybe those runners were mostly around 5-1 to 10-1 and her route was still one-turn, but that was also a terrible final work...

Race 9:
#8 Al's Gal is SCR...
#10 Desiree Clary: 4th in the French Oaks and should continue to improve in her second start here.
#7 Ball Dancing: First four runs Stateside would win this and she showed signs of life last time out.
#2 Achnaha: Will be running late under 114 lbs.
#3 Suffused
Wouldn't be surprised to see any of the nine win this...

Race 10:
#2 Comfort: Only "poor" dirt race came when he had a rough start and made an early wide move in a race where the top three were there the entire way. Improver is unexposed and has powered home in 6.1 in his last two.
#4 Frosted: If he repeats the Met Mile race he's long gone, but he's not always brought his A game upstate and the graveyard is always ready.
#1 El Kabeir: Broke with the top two in the Stephen Foster and after a wide run on the first turn was shuffled back to second last. Closed well behind a wire to wire winner and was long gone on the gallop out. Ran huge here as a 2yo and will be a huge price.

Race 11:
#1 Roca Rojo: Sib of a high-quality galloper in Hong Kong. Done nothing wrong to date.
#8 Akatea is SCR...
#9 Robillard: Could be left on the lead after the SCRs...
#10 Zindaya: Never done it past 7f and this is a strong group to break the mile duck.
#3 Stormy Victoria: Beaten two back as the 3-2 fav in a G2. Another whose ceiling may be a mile.

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 1: 1, 2, 7
Race 2: 4, 5, 6, 7
Race 3: 1, 4, 8
Race 4: 1, 6
Race 5: 1, 5
$86.40

$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 2: 4, 5, 6, 7
Race 3: 1, 4, 8
Race 4: 1, 4, 6
Race 5: 1, 5, 7, 11
$86.40 + cover: 4, 5, 6, 8/1, 4, 8/4/2, 8, 10, 12 $28.80
= $115.20 total

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 8: 3, 5
Race 9: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10
Race 10: 1, 2, 4
Race 11: 1, 3, 9, 10
$115.20

Good luck!