Hoppers Wed

jnunan4759 · #1 08-09-2016, 07:41 PM

I was aĺl excited for the first race and then looked at my Bris pp's. Actually I had a full card of pp's and the jump race had some oblique details and no pp's.

I'm used to the discrimination up at the Spa. People don't understand them and they take forever and they can fall. I understand that, but it can be a great opportunity thatmany overlook.

Winning favorites in the hoppers this year (short sample) are 40%, but that corresponds to other years The average payout for those consistent favorites are usually 2 or 3 times higher than Chad Brown's or Todd Pletcher's and win close to 10% more and pay up to 30% higher.

I'm not a big fan of the configuration change. I understand what Steve said as the reason and can certiainly understand the decision.

I'm a huge fan and proponent of this racing. I think the more people are exposed and know about it, the more they will enjoy it.

Maybe if I get better Pp's, I'll throw in picks.

Flatterer · #2 08-09-2016, 11:30 PM

Wednesday Saratoga Race 1 is an interesting mix of future stakes winners and pretenders.

The course configuration of just 8 jumps makes this a modified flat race so fast flat turf form will do well.

Here is a list of runners with NSA turf rating numbers in parenthesis – higher number means more weight if this was a handicap instead of a condition allowance.

#1) Hardrock Eleven (115) Finished fourth in Marcellus Frost Novice Stakes at Iroquois Steeplechase on 5/14 and beat 3 runners in a Saratoga allowance hurdle last year. Good flat turf speed. Horse for course angle and underneath for exotics

#2) Boogie Feeva (110) 4YO still learning the ropes, overmatched and slow.

#3) Personal Start (116) Won Atlanta Cup maiden hurdle 4/23 and led a strong field in Marcellus Frost Novice Stakes at Iroquois Steeplechase for 12 jumps until he ran out of gas. The ground was tiring with many runners either falling at the last 2 fences or pulling up. Jockey Bernie Dalton is only 1 for 34 this year. OK flat turf speed. If he doesn’t try to run with Unsinkable early, will be underneath in exotics.

#4) Castle Hill (N/A) Sheppard’s attempt to keep his 47 year winning streak alive. Finished third in Iroquois maiden hurdle 5/14, 6 seconds slower than #1, then lost rider when stirrup leather broke in Parx maiden flat 7/12. Good flat turf speed. Will be overbet and offer little value but possible underneath.

#5) Reporter (111) 4YO Controversial win at Suffolk Downs maiden hurdle 7/9. Reporter jumped in front of a fast closing Silver Lime, causing Silver Lime to lose his rider. I believe this is the reason jump racing at Suffolk was cancelled. The Stewards did not disqualify Reporter after a long inquiry. Slow flat turf runner, should still be a maiden.

#6) Unsinkable (116) Had a meltdown in Saratoga allowance hurdle 7/27 and was scratched on the track before the starting flag dropped. He was 6/5 favorite. He backed into the outside hedge and stepped on an irrigation pipe stashed at the bottom of the hedge. Won Middleburg Spring maiden hurdle 4/23. A lose horse forced Unsinkable to fall at the 7th fence in a Virginia Gold Cup allowance hurdle 5/7. At the time, Unsinkable and another runner (King of All Diamonds) were in front by 30 lengths. Finished third in Radnor Hunt Cup allowance hurdle 5/21 after setting a strong pace, leading for 11 fences. Tough uphill run the last 1/8 mile cost him the race. Leading jockey Jack Doyle rides again. Fast flat turf speed. Top pick.

#7) Detroit Blues (112) In U.S. debut, finished second in Parx flat race for hurdlers 7/10. Won maiden hurdle at Fontwell in England in May 2015. Trainer Ricky Hendricks is very crafty bringing runners from England and Ireland. Must use in bottom spot of tris and supers.

#8) Berland (127) 4YO In U.S. debut, finished fifth in Saratoga allowance hurdle 7/27, always outrun. Formerly trained by John Ferguson, won juvenile hurdle in his first start over fences in England.

#9) Duke of Medina (134) 4YO Leading owner: Irvin S. Naylor, 2nd leading trainer: Cyril Murphy and 3rd leading Jockey: Ross Geraghty are a strong combination. Flat handicap winner won juvenile hurdle last year at Market Rasen in England. NSA handicappers would put 149 pounds on in a handicap but he gets in with a 141 feather for this allowance. Connections are the best in the race. Possible winner if #6Unsinkable and #3Personal Start commit Harikari on the front end.

#10) Blue Atlantic (122) Kicked off U.S. return with a tiring 5th in Parx flat race for hurdlers on 7/10. Won his first start over fences in late 2014 and had a second in a Wincanton handicap hurdle in April.

Predicted order of finish:
6-3-9-4-1-7-10-5-8-2

For betting purposes:
A) 6-9
B) 3-1
C) 4-7

Hope this information helps!!

Best of luck!!!

herkhorse · #3 08-10-2016, 06:57 AM

lots of rain in the forecast for the next 4 days

MaTH716 · #4 08-10-2016, 08:50 AM

David Grening ‏@DRFGrening 4m4 minutes ago
At Saratoga Wednesday, races 4 and 7 ON the turf. Races 1,3 and 10 OFF. With no steeplechase guess that means first post will be 1:30 p.m.

Flatterer · #5 08-10-2016, 09:08 AM

Wednesday Steeplechase cancelled. Too bad for us to make some $$$$ at the windows.

No word on Thursday Steeplechase race. I'll hold off on an analysis until we see if they are running.

Good luck to everyone in the contest today!!!!

Kasept · #6 08-10-2016, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flatterer

Wednesday Steeplechase cancelled. Too bad for us to make some $$$$ at the windows.

No word on Thursday Steeplechase race. I'll hold off on an analysis until we see if they are running.

Good luck to everyone in the contest today!!!!

Thursday's Mrs. Phipps anticipated to be a go per Bill Gallo.

jnunan4759 · #7 08-10-2016, 03:32 PM

Great analysis flatterer, was looking forward to this and thought they might go. In most years they try to let these go as the run with dogs up and only use the outer area of the inner track, which is rarely set foot on in turf races. Hopefully they can bring this one back, but NYRA is often hesitant to card 2 jump races in a card and go beyond Wed and Thur.

I know a cancelled race is a big deal to all the connections and the purses at Saratoga are better than at any meet and hate to see them lose a race.

Flatterer · #8 08-10-2016, 09:12 PM

Steve, thanks for the update and jnunan thanks for the kind words.

This race is rescheduled for Wed 8/17. I'm sure there will be some changes at the entry box so we'll have to wait and see.

Working on Thursday analysis that will be posted by Thursday morning.

jnunan4759 · #9 08-12-2016, 12:54 AM

I got jammed up today and didn't get the PP's and bet the two Paul Fout horses to WPS and made a modest profit when one ran 2nd.

I've always done well on the Fout's at SAR. They fly under the radar of the non-jump public who will chase John Sheppard. Always well-meant and feel the same of Valentine.