9/27: Laurel (4th-7th); Belmont (6th-10th); Philadelphia (8th-11th)

[Kasept]

LAUREL PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


If things go his way, talented Trevor McCarthy could be in store for a career day..


4th: Brookmeade-R, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Secret Or Not 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Complete St. 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Skipalute 9-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Magician's Vanity 6-1 5th


5th: Commonwealth Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Tricky group with Motion's It's the Truth (15-1) the lynchpin up front. Could forget to stop. Involuntary (10-1) will follow her and feels like a viable key horse getting first run. Stella Rose, My Impression and Noble Beauty are the obvious short price players.

Most Likely: #9 Stella Rose 5-2 4th
Best Value: #10 Involuntary 10-1 10th
Next Best: #7 My Impression 6-1 WON ($11.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Noble Beauty 4-1 2nd


6th: Commonwealth Turf Cup (G2), 3+, 1m-T (Rainbow P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Blacktype 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #12 Force the Pass 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Phlash Phelps 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Farhaan 6-1 5th


7th: Commonwealth Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Revved Up 5-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Deeply Undervalued 6-1 WON ($15.40)
Next Best: #10 Isotherm 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 American Patriot 5-2 4th


P4 Grid:

4: 1-5 (A), - (B), 7-9 (C)
5: 9-10 (A), 5-6-7 (B), 1 (C)
6: 7 (A), 10-12 (B), 1-5 (C)
7: 5-7 (A), 2-10 (B), 4-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x3x4 = 120 x .50 = $60



BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P5, P3, DD)

Late P5 starts here..

On Tap won't be 8-1..

Most Likely: #7 On Tap 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Core Portfolio 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Altar Boy 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Super Add: #11 Show Bound 6-1 6th


7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Mission Driven 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Patterson Cross 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Zennor 9-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Hunter O'Reily 8-1 3rd


8th: 29th Noble Damsel (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Mrs. McDougal 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #6 Zindaya 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Stormy Victoria 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 My Sweet Girl 15-1 4th


9th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (DD)

Brutally tough turf sprint with gaggle of hard-hitting claimers. 5-2 Speeding Comet had something go wrong upstate. Will use defensively given favorite's unsettling gap in tab..

Most Likely: #1 Rapscallion 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Whateveryouwant 10-1 6th
Next Best: #7 The Imposter 3-1 WON ($7.70)
Exotics Use: #5 Speeding Comet 5-2 4th


10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #6 Sea Pebble 7-2 WON ($4.90)
Next Best: #2 Palladian Bridge 5-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

6: 2-7 (A), 9-11 (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-4 (A), - (B), 5-7-10 (C)
8: 5 (A), - (B), 6-7-8 (C)
9: 1-2 (A), 5-7 (B), 8-10 (C)
10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-4 (A), 5-7-10 (B), 3-6-8-9 (C)
8: 5 (A), 6-7 (B), 2-3-8 (C)
9: 1-2 (A), 5-7 (B), 8-10 (C)
10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72



PHILADELPHIA PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: Frosted (PA Derby Champion) S., 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #7 Tale of Life 3-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Encryption 9-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Mr. Jordan 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Cyrus Alexander 6-1 WON ($5.60)


9th: Gallant Bob (G3), 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Noholdingback Bear 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #11 Who's Out 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Threefiveindia 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Mind Your Biscuits 9-2 2nd


10th: 50th Cotillion (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

The place to go aggressively against Songbird is going to be the Distaff. Carina Mia and Cathryn Sophia rock solid, but what's different today that elevates them over Songbird here?

Most Likely: #5 Songbird 1-2 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #1 Carina Mia 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Cathryn Sophia 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Land Over Sea 10-1 4th


11th: 40th Pennsylvania Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Fascinating edition that should result in AGSC giving event elusive G1 as 1-2-3 from Derby, 1-3-4 from Haskell, 5 exiting Travers & King's Bishop and more assemble. Plenty of pace signed on, but be aware that speed holds well here and outside paths the ideal trip. Hard-trying Gun Runner has right style and launching point. Hit It Once More has pilot who knows his way around this oval and can impact with same stalk and go trip he employed in May at Belmont. Sunny Ridge ran well off long break in Haskell and should be first to attack from second flight under deadly rally pilot Bravo. Nyquist enters off throwback worktab featuring series of mile drills and may be ready for best. Cupid and Summer Revolution, possibly Awesome Slew, figure to set fast pace and any could get dangerous if somehow loose..

Most Likely: #7 Gun Runner 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #12 Hit It Once More 20-1 12th
Next Best: #9 Nyquist 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Sunny Ridge 12-1 11th


P4 Grid:

8: 2-7 (A), 1-5 (B), 3-4-6 (C)
9: 5-11 (A), 2-3 (B), 4-7-10 (C)
10: 5 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
11: 7-9-10-12 (A), 1-2-3-5 (B), 4-6-8-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x8 = 128 x .50 = $64


Good luck!
Steve

[casp0555]

hopefully the rain has stopped in Elmont...good luck today Steve. thanks for posting your opinions....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by casp0555

hopefully the rain has stopped in Elmont...good luck today Steve. thanks for posting your opinions....

6th & 10th are OFF the turf..

Cool, overcast in Philly..

BOL today Billy!

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

LRL SCR/CHG'S

PRX SCR/CHG'S

[ONTHERAIL]

Steve, Hopefully you got downtown to Vetri or some other like good foodie joint..As a homer I'll be rooting with you for the iggles tomorrow.

Hope you have a good stay!

Drew