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#1
05-05-2017, 09:15 PM
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5/6: Churchill Downs (143rd Kentucky Derby Day)
Cold, wet day at the Downs for Oaks and hopes for a cleaner Derby forecast have not materialized.. The early situation is detailed below and looks impossible now that track won't be wet by 6:46p feature post. Turf holding up well though and the grass stakes should be terrific. Other than strong rail opportunities, (utilized by Mena for instance on the Wes Hawley 30-1 ALW upsetter), main track was pretty fair as evidenced by the Abel Tasman's wide last-to-first Oaks rally under Mike Smith. No monster scores Friday, but a few helpful pops, especially the early P3, made for an OK wagering day. Hope everyone did well. Let's make the most of Derby Day!
TRACK: SLOPPY TURF: GOOD (Lane 1, on the hedge) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST: Periods of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3 p.m.. High near 60. West wind 8-to-11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES (10:20a) 1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Saved by the Swell 7-2 4th Next Best: #3 Seventh Tee 4-1 8th Exotics Use: #6 No Fault 2-1 3rd Super Add: #7 Gulf View 8-1 6th 2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 Awesome Saturday 4-1 2nd Best Value: #2 Donwell 8-1 4th Next Best: #8 No Mo Dough 4-1 WON ($19.80) Exotics Use: #7 Salute With Honor 3-1 6th 3rd: $100k/OC, 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD) Very strange group of horses including '15 & '16 Derby alumni Far Right & Mo Tom.. Best Value: #1 Flashy Jewel 8-1 6th Next Best: #5 Rocket Time 5-1 WON ($7.80) Exotics Use: #3 Wabel 10-1 4th Super Add: #2 Far Right 10-1 3rd 4th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Perfect Partner 5-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Souper Fly Over 3-1 5th Best Value: #4 Oklahoma View 10-1 9th Exotics Use: #1 Caviar Czar 7-2 WON ($8.20) 5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 FORGE 7-2 4th Best Value: #4 Long Ago 15-1 11th Next Best: #11 Hockey School 9-2 6th Exotics Use: #5 Sir Dudley Diggs 4-1 WON ($9.40) P4 Grid: 2: 2-4-7-8 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C) 3: 1-2-3-5 (A), 4-6-7-8 (B), - (C) 4: 5-6 (A), 1-4-7 (B), 3 (C) 5: 1 (A), - (B), 4-5-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x8x5x1 = 160 x .50 = $80 All A's: 4x4x2x1 = 32 x .50 = $16 6th: Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #7 Carina Mia 2-1 3rd Next Best: #5 Finest City 8-5 2nd Best Value: #6 Lightstream 5-1 5th Exotics Use: #2 Paulassilverlining 7-2 WON ($7.60) 7th: Distaff Turf Mile (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD) Miss Temple City has SCR'd.. Most Likely: #6 Roco Rojo 3-1 WON ($4.60) Next Best: #1 Linda 5-1 3rd Best Value: #8 Prize Exhibit 12-1 5th Exotics Use: #4 Believe in Bertie 6-1 2nd P5 Grid: 3: 1-3-5 (A), - (B), 2-4-6-7-8 (C) 4: 5-6 (A), 1-4 (B), 3-7 (C) 5: 1 (A), - (B), 4-5-11 (C) 6: 2-5-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C) 7: 6 (A), 1-8 (B), 4-7-8 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 3x2x1x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 8th: Pat Day Mile (G3), 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #8 Wild Shot 4-1 WON ($19.40) Best Value: #9 Excitations 10-1 11th Next Best: #5 No Dozing 5-1 2nd Exotics Use: #11 Sonic Mule 10-1 5th Super Add: #4 Uncontested 5-1 3rd P4 Grid: 5: 1 (A), - (B), 4-5-11 (C) 6: 5-7 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C) 7: 1-6-8 (A), - (B), 3-4-7 (C) 8: 4-5-8-9-11 (A), 1-2-10-12-13 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x10 = 120 x .50 = $60 All A's: 1x2x3x5 = 30 x .50 = $15 9th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Kitten's Cat 5-1 9th Best Value: #2 Big Score 6-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Oscar Performance 7-2 10th Exotics Use: #10 Good Samaritan 5-1 2nd 10th: Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Awesome Slew 4-1 2nd Next Best: #12 Denman's Call 8-1 11th Best Value: #13 Tom's Ready 15-1 3rd Exotics Use: #2 Masochistic 5-2 13th Super Add: #8 El Kabeir 6-1 7th 11th: Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD) As compelling as the Derby.. Most Likely: #2 Divisidero 4-1 WON ($9.00) Best Value: #3 Oscar Nominated 15-1 3rd Next Best: #8 Beach Patrol 5-1 2nd Exotics Use: #4 Conquest Panthera 8-1 8th 12th: 143rd Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD) LIVE DERBY ODDS As always, a wonderful 2 weeks in Louisville, typically my favorite part of the broadcast year. I hope everyone garnered info they feel is helping them approach the most unique event in our game. As discussed during coverage, while there's always potential for chaos, 20% of the field - the 4 top betting choices (Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, Classic Empire, McCraken) - look much more likely to win than the other 16. Before assuming an implausible winner, remember that any of those $10-$16 players will still help produce potentially outlandish returns. I always stick with the top choice I make 10 days out for the Xpressbet Derby Wagering Guide and McCraken remains for me a prime candidate for the rose blanket for all the reasons that I've brought out. Always Dreaming could wing his way around the oval War Emblem style and I've elevated Irish War Cry and Practical Joke into the top 4 on the strength of their outstanding appearances here in Louisville. And while there are a number of late runners (Lookin At Lee, Hence, Gunnevara) that will challenge for the bottom rungs of the tri/super/Hi-5, Sonneteer is the one I'm publishing given the company he's kept without winning and his track-skipping mornings at The Downs. I'll respect the Godolphin entrant defensively. Hence, State of Honor, Battle of Midway & Classic Empire will be on my tri tickets. Enjoy Derby.. Safe trips.. Good luck to all! Most Likely: #15 McCraken 5-1 (Current 6-1) 8th Next Best: #5 Always Dreaming 5-1 (Current 9-2) WON ($11.40) Best Value: #19 Practical Joke 20-1 (Current 32-1) 5th Exotics Use: #17 Irish War Cry 6-1 (Current 5-1) 10th Super Add: #2 Thunder Snow 20-1 (Current 17-1) DNF Hi-5 Play: #12 Sonneteer 50-1 (Current 36-1) 16th .50 TRIFECTA: Key 15 1st/2nd with 2-5-12-17-19 with 1-2-5-6-8-9-10-11-12-14-16-17-19 (1x5x12 = 60 x .50 = $30 x 2 = $60) Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Grid: KO: 4 (A), 7 (B), 1-8-10-13 (C) WR: 1-2-3-4-6-12 (A), - (B), 8-9 (C) KD: 5-15-17-19 (A), - (B), 2-6-11-14 (C) Simple (A+B): 2x6x4 = $48 ($24 for .50) All A's: 1x6x4 = $24 ($12 for .50) $1 OAKS/WDFRD/DERBY P3 (13-2-5) Paid $87.75 Oaks-Derby Double Grid: KO: 4 (A), 7 (B), 1-8-10-13 (C) KD: 5-15-17-19 (A), 2-6-11-14 (B), 1-8-16-18 (C) Simple (A+B): 2x8 = $16 All A's: 1x4 x $5 = $20 $1 OAKS/DERBY DBL (13-5) Paid $73.00 P5 Grid: 8: 4-5 (A), 8-9-11 (B), 10-12 (C) 9: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 1-9-10 (C) 10: 1-12-13 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C) 11: 2-3 (A), - (B), 1-4-6-8-11-12 (C) 12: 15 (A), - (B), 2-5-17-19 (C) Simple (A+B): 5x3x5x2x1 = $150 x .50 = $75 All A's: 2x3x3x2x1 = $36 x .50 = $18 P4 Grid: 9: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 1-9-10 (C) 10: 1-12-13 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C) 11: 2-3 (A), - (B), 1-4-6-8-11-12 (C) 12: 5-15 (A), 2-17-19 (B), 6-8-11-12-14 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = $150 x .50 = $75 All A's: 3x3x2x2 = $36 x .50 = $18 13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6.5f (DD) Best Value: #2 Visionary Tale 8-1 WON ($8.60) Next Best: #1a (POE) Hard Scramble 5-1 2nd Exotics Use: #9 Casse's Story 5-1 6th Super Add: #8 Rockin Rudy 2-1 5th 14th: MSW, 3+, 7f Most Likely: #4 Souper Wish 2-1 4th Best Value: #5 Bourbon Country 10-1 6th Next Best: #3 Arch Cat 10-1 3rd Exotics Use: #9 Unk SCR P4 Grid: 11: 2-3-8 (A), - (B), 4-6-11-12 (C) 12: 5-15-19 (A), 2-12-17 (B), 6-8-11-14 (C) 13: 1-2 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C) 14: 4-5 (A), - (B), 3-7-9/SCR-14 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x2 = $144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 3x3x2x2 = $36 x .50 = $18 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-07-2017 at 07:48 AM. 
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#2
05-06-2017, 08:20 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
05-06-2017, 10:12 AM
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Quote:
https://www.equibase.com/static/late...gesCD-USA.html
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
05-06-2017, 10:28 AM
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Quote:
My pleasure and thanks you.. Let's get lucky! Quote:
Thanks very much. The 2 weeks here always seem special and appreciate the reception and kind support. Good luck today!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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