6/10: Belmont Park (149th Belmont Stakes Day)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Quite a few here that do not get a camera pointed at them too often. May have been the wet track last fall that propelled him, but want to take shot that Exulting (15-1) may be ready to return to the corker he ran that day breaking his maiden..

Best Value: #8 Exulting 15-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Battle Midway 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Vincento 7-2 5th
Super Add: #7 Thebigfundamental 5-2 WON ($4.90)


2nd: 7th Easy Goer, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

This went from a prospective small field to a really solid group of 'notch below' sophomores. Fair amount of speed lines up, though it's not impossible that one of them shakes loose. Wicked Macho (8-1) flashed talent in Derby Day Downs debut, has drilled like a champ since and may be tactical when it comes to the pace picture. You're to Blame (4-1), to use a Serlingism, is 'dirtied up' after two excusable beats and may be more the horse to beat than favored West Coast (5-2)..

Best Value: #3 Wicked Macho 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 You're to Blame 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 West Coast 5-2 WON ($5.70)
Super Add: #6 Tale of Silence 15-1 5th


3rd: 129th Brooklyn (G2), 4+, 12f (P3, DD)

Send It In (SCR'ing from here) and Tu Brutus put on a show in Excelsior and then Tu Brutus came back with spectacular performance in the Flat Out. War Story a good fit. Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull) turned in a blah effort at Charles Town, but may return to his good races on the big oval..

Most Likely: #5 Tu Brutus 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Sunny Ridge 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Governor Malibu 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 War Story 6-1 WON ($10.00)


4th: 87th Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

As discussed this week, everyone is looking to beat Abel Tasman, but it better be because of price as her one turn (7f) ALW win at DMR last year was excellent. Mark Casse and Ron Anderson made compelling cases for Salty who had the worst of it in the Kentucky Oaks but draws ideally for this assignment. Sweet Loretta and Union Strike were 'win early' juvies that have been managed smartly to arrive here eligible for success..

Best Value: #8 Salty 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Abel Tasman 2-1 WON ($6.30)
Exotics Use: #7 Sweet Loretta 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Union Strike 8-1 5th


5th: 49th Ogden Phipps (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Songbird returns for 4yo debut and may not be as much of a hummingbird as she was as a younger filly having filled out considerably. Has nice enough cast around her, but expect she comes back better than she left..

Most Likely: #5 Songbird 1-2 WON ($2.70)
Next Best: #7 Carina Mia 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Bar of Gold 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Highway Star 10-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 4-8 (A), 1-7 (B), 3-5-6 (C)
2: 3-7-8 (A), - (B), 5-6-9 (C)
3: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3-7 (C)
4: 1-3-7-8 (A), 2-4-5-6 (B), - (C)
5: 5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x8x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x1x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

2: 3-6-7-8 (A), 1-4-5-9 (B), 2-10 (C)
3: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3-7 (C)
4: 1-3-7-8 (A), 2-4-5-6 (B), - (C)
5: 5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x1x8x1 = 64 x .50 = $32
All A's: 4x1x4x1 = $16 ($8 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (7,10/7/3,6/5) Paid $57.37 (A-C-A-A)


6th: 34th Jaipur (G3), 4+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Another entertaining edition of this lawn dash which starts with last year's Generazio entry exacta of Pure Sensation & Disco Partner. Both back and just as eligible for success today. Green Mask ran in that '16 Jaipur and is far better form now than a year ago. Hogy is one of my favorite horses in training and hasn't missed a superfecta since October '15. Holding Gold (closer) and Stormy Liberal (presser) have races that impact. Fun affair..

Most Likely: #4 Green Mask 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Pure Sensation 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Hogy 8-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Disco Partner 6-1 WON ($11.60)


7th: 33rd Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

New York-bred Gold for the King, in the hands of assassin Charlie Baker, has never been worse than 3rd and even then, only under-performed on off going. Adjusts to any pace and bypassed easier assignment for this. Won't lose..

Best Value: #4 GOLD FOR THE KING 15-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Recruiting Ready 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Long Haul Bay 5-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Guiseppe the Great 12-1 2nd


8th: 24th Just a Game (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

After jockeys' embarrassing decision-making yesterday in the New York, expect Celestine & Sassy Little Lila will not be left totally to own devices up front here. Geroux and Roca Rojo, already the likeliest winners, has kept closer company when necessary previously and should get first run..

Most Likely: #2 Roca Rojo 9-5 7th
Next Best: #5 Celestine 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Antonoe 8-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Dickinson 5-2 3rd


9th: 124th Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Realizing the Met hasn't received the attention it deserves and may end up as the race we talk about most afterwards. Pace, with Sharp Azteca and Mor Spirit setting, could get prompted which would open it up to all running styles. Returned to one-turning in Casse barn, Awesome Slew was left with a tad too much to do in the Churchill Downs. This has been the target all along for Mrs. Weber's homebred and Rosario should get him in position to succeed today. Have been talking about 30-1 Virtual Machine for months and remember that Connect, whom he chased home in the Westchester, would have been the choice had he not been injured. Castellano gets on Tom's Ready (15-1) who won Woody Stephens on this day last year and may be poised for career best..

Most Likely: #12 Awesome Slew 6-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Virtual Machine 30-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Mor Spirit 5-2 WON ($7.10)
Exotics Use: #5 Sharp Azteca 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Tom's Ready 15-1 7th


10th: 116th Manhattan (G1), 4+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Very nice set for this New York turf institution and several contenders get the footing they like best..

Most Likely: #4 Time Test 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Potemkin 8-1 7th
Next Best: #3 World Approval 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Ascend 20-1 WON ($57.00)


11th: 149th Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)

Has been an engaging Triple Crown season that fittingly comes to a confusing end. Nice enough combination of stakes-credentialed and aspiring types line up and took a mix and match approach when projecting event last week in the Xpressbet Wagering Guide while substituting Irish War Cry for the absent Classic Empire. There are some players that may be more likely than others, but this has always been a race where contenders pop up thanks to the configuration of the oval and the stamina required to finish the 12 panels. Horses like Senior Investment, Twisted Tom and Multiplier fit the profile of the more surprising type, while Tapwrit, Irish War Cry and Gormley have the established background resumes. Stand by your selections and feather in as many supporting players as you can afford. It's a race to have some fun with..

As always, has been a privilege presenting the Triple Crown season to you on ATR. Hope everyone has enjoyed the odyssey!

Most Likely: #2 Tapwrit 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Best Value: #8 Senior Investment 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Irish War Cry 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Twisted Tom 20-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Gormley 8-1 4th

DBL Grid:

GC: 10-12 (A), 5-11-13 (B), 3-9 (C)
BS: 2-7-8 (A), 1-6 (B), 3-4-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x5 = 25 X $2 = $50
Backup (C+A/B/C): 2x8 = $16

$2 Daily Double (10-2) Paid $51.00


P4 Grid:

8: 2-5 (A), - (B), 1-3-4-6-7 (C)
9: 9-10-12 (A), 3-5-8 (B), 1-2-7 (C)
10: 4-6 (A), - (B), 1-5-7-9 (C)
11: 2-7-8 (A), 1-3-10 (B), 4-5-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #2e McLaughlin entry 5-1 3rd/6th
Next Best: #3 Revved Up 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1e Ownership entry 7-2 5th/12th
Super Add: #10 Arcature 12-1 10th


13th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f

Best Value: #5 River Echo 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Story to Tell 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Realm 3-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Do Share 6-1 WON ($17.80)


P4 Grid:

10: 4-6 (A), - (B), 1-5-7-9 (C)
11: 2-7-8 (A), 1-3-10 (B), 4-5-6-9 (C)
12: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), 6-7-8-10 (C)
13: 3-5 (A), 6-10 (B), 1-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x3x4 = 1444 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BELMONT DAY SCR/CHG'S

[tanner12oz]

Nice call on ascend

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Nice call on ascend

Redboard Alert !
Would have been nicer if you coulda made him a B for the $24 grand pick 4 I woulda hit.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Redboard Alert !
Would have been nicer if you coulda made him a B for the $24 grand pick 4 I woulda hit.

Yeah.. Agreed. Happy to have included him and helped on some plays, but multi ticket construction was bad all weekend.

Hope everyone did well. Was a fun 3 days.

[declansharbor]

I lost every cent I had allocated for wagering yesterday (and a few hunnet more .... shhhhh, or I'll be on the market again) but kudos to those that did well and it goes without saying, thank you to the fearless leader, Byk. Can't tell you how much I've grown as a horseplayer from following you, and my vocabulary has improved leaps & bounds as well!

On to the Summer Classics !