7/19: Del Mar ~ Opening Day (4th-10th)

Kasept · #1 07-19-2017, 06:40 AM

DEL MAR TURF CLUB ~ OPENING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Very good cast with heady looking firsters (Pretty Owl, Snowdust, Literary Critic) facing off against several with experience (Classy Tune, Discreetly Leah, Slim Fit). Sherman's Discreetly Leah & Proctor's Slim Fit may compromise Callaghan's favored Classy Tune with pressure on the front end.

Most Likely: #3 Pretty Owl 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Classy Tune 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #6 Literary Critic 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Slim Fit 5-1 4th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P6, P3, DD)

As discussed with Baffert, prospects for Just a Smidge appear good, but Hall of Fame conditioners are sprinkled throughout this field with Mandella's Varanasi receiving advance press and Hollendorfer's Our Slick Chick potentially in under the radar. Peter Miller has two signed on with Broome & My Princess Taylor whose dams both were fast as juveniles. O'Neill's Tyfosha (5-2 ML fave) got debut out of the way and appears the one to catch..

Most Likely: #3 Varanasi 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Just a Smidge 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #7 Our Slick Chick 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Tyfosha 5-2 2nd

6th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Precious little speed involved here which raises question of ability of Bert's Melody to wire. Family Meeting the 2nd of Proctor's 3 chances (Slim Fit; Caribou Club) in return to California. Moonless Sky has won 3 of last 4 for Truman/Desormeaux. Hiking (15-1) merits exotics look luring Roman..

Most Likely: #3 Family Meeting 7-2 9th
Best Value: #1 Bert's Melody 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Moonless Sky 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Hiking 15-1 10th

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Fascinating set with NY-bred Giant Expectations returning to the Left Coast after pair of Belmont wins against own kind. Horse to beat but note this spot requires 2-turns again. Tell Me a Story lost ground late coming down the hill, but returns to dirt and 2 turns and Miller tabs Roman with whom he's a garish 12-for-26. Absolutely Stylish & Gato Del Oro fit here and can't help but look twice at Magical Mystery who was within a length of West Coast at the wire in last..

Most Likely: #9 Giant Expectations 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Absolutely Stylish 5-2 7th
Best Value: #3 Tell Me a Story 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Gato Del Oro 3-1 WON ($9.80)

8th: 71st Oceanside-R, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Always a fun event to start the DMR festivities, 14 horse Oceanside features rock solid Bowies Hero who exits the Pennine Ridge where he was within 3L of Oscar Performance..

Most Likely: #4 Bowies Hero 5-2 WON ($8.80)
Best Value: #10 Grecian Fire 20-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Bird Is the Word 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Arms Runner 3-1 7th

9th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (DD)

Murky Cal-bred MDN group..

Most Likely: #6 Smiling Tigress 5-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Yolanda's Stone 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Spiced Perfection 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Streak of Luck 5-1 4th

10th: CLM, 3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Tricky finale but off more than 6 months, Preacher Roe gets to run below level of claim without the tag..

Most Likely: #3 Preacher Roe 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Belisarius 8-1 -
Next Best: #4 Private Prospect 3-1 -
Exotics Use: #1 Dream Police 12-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #11 My Discretion 8-1 -

P4 Grid:

7: 3-7-9 (A), - (B), 5-6-10 (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), 1-2-10 (C)
9: 4-6-9-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-6 (A), 1-2-4-11 (B), 7-8-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x5x6 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 3x1x5x2 = 30 x .50 = $15

Good luck!
Steve