Jonathan Kiser Steeplechase 7/26/17

[Flatterer]

The Jonathan Kiser Novice stakes kicks off the steeplechase stand at Saratoga. One steeplechase race will be held every Wednesday and Thursday, except for August 10 and August 17.

Here is an article Joe Clancy wrote in 2012 about Kiser.
http://thisishorseracing.com/news/in...jonathan-kiser

The race is 4 turns with 10 jumps, with the last jump on the backstretch so there is a 3/8 mile run from the last jump to the finish.

This is a restricted race for non-winners of a hurdle race before March 1, 2016. Here is a look at the 7 runners. The number after the name is the NSA rating (higher the better).

#1 - Miguel Grau (120) – Last win at Suffolk over 1 year ago against a bad bunch. He has been soundly beaten this year by several other runners in this race. Jockey not in the top 10. May clunk up in the 4th spot for the super.

#2 - No Wunder (116) – First year jumping with a respectable win at Fair Hill 5/27 in a competitive time. He won a mile flat point to point race at Voss’ farm 4/8 in a quick time. Has the fastest flat Beyer numbers. Jockey Doyle is 2nd in money won standings. No excuse for 3rd place finish in Parx flat race 7/8. He may close for a 3rd or 4th place finish in the super.

#3 - New Member (130) – New to US racing from England. 130 rating in England from 2 wins and 4 places in 9 starts which is not bad. He has to adjust to the speed of US racing. High weight features top trainer and leading rider with wins. He is a contender at a price, most likely underneath in exotics.

#4 - Show Court (127) – Nice win in same condition at Camden 4/1. He was 2nd at Mineral Springs 4/29 after leading most of the race in a slow time. Very soft going offers an excuse for Nashville performance 5/13. Good flat speed, upsetting the Parx flat race 7/8. Kingsley usually picks up a check when shipping to Saratoga. Must use in exotics.

#5 - Surprising Soul (130) – Wendy Hendricks runner has dominated in all 3 spring races, making Wendy the 4th leading money won owner. He had fastest time of the day at Aiken and Nashville. NSA rating should be a little higher at 132. High weight is most likely winner.

#6 - Moscato (124) – 2 nice wins at Mineral Springs and Nashville. From 2016, he earned a 123 rating in England. Top trainer and rider for money won this year. Possible winner if Surprising Soul does not show up. Use in exotics.

#7 - Macnicholson (130) – 2nd of 3 runners in a point to point hurdle 4/23 but failed to finish in two NSA sanctioned races. 136 rating in Ireland in 2016 but has shown nothing in US. NSA rating should be 115. Throw out.

Race shape: Antsy bunch will be tough to line up and may have a recall start. #6-Moscato and #4-Show Court will duel for the lead early, with #5-Suprising Soul tracking off that pace. #5-Surprising Soul will make a move the last time down the backstretch (8th fence) and will be all out to catch #6-Moscato. #4-Show Court will fade and #1-Miguel Grau, #2-No Wonder and #3-New Member will close to pick up the pieces.

Selections: A) 5 – 6

Projected order of finish: 5-6-4-2-1-3-7

Good Luck at the races!

[Alabama Stakes]

Does the elimination of the most important fence effect your handicapping?

[Flatterer]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Does the elimination of the most important fence effect your handicapping?

Yes. However, handicapping races on a flat groomed course with fewer jumps makes natural speed a much more important factor than removing the last jump.

Most meets are on undulating courses that can have up to 15 jumps for the same distance and can be left or right handed. As a result, athleticism and strength are more important than pure speed.

With a 3/8 mile flat finish, the higher the Beyer number on the flat is more favorable.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Does the elimination of the most important fence effect your handicapping?

You still on this? Thought I was watching ground hog day

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

You still on this? Thought I was watching ground hog day

Just trying to maintain my "beating a dead hoss" habit.

I see Surly is still skipping the jumps. Wouldn't it be better just to cap them and fade the picks ?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Just trying to maintain my "beating a dead hoss" habit.

I see Surly is still skipping the jumps. Wouldn't it be better just to cap them and fade the picks ?

He never makes picks on the jumps and who can blame him. Im clueless there well probably everywhere but even more so there.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

He never makes picks on the jumps and who can blame him. Im clueless there well probably everywhere but even more so there.

It's the same as saying , I don't bet maiden races or I don't get turf sprints. It's a cop out.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

It's the same as saying , I don't bet maiden races or I don't get turf sprints. It's a cop out.

I think its more like betting trotters

[Flatterer]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I think its more like betting trotters

Stay tuned for the rest of the season........