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#1
08-05-2017, 06:30 AM
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8/5: Saratoga (Whitney Day)
Thunderstorms certain to continue to roll through our area, but there's no way to know how wet things get or status of non-stakes turf races at this hour. For now, 6:30a, anticipating muddy to start the day on the main and good turf for the stakes races (3rd-7th-10th). 1st-4th-5th are candidates to come off the grass..
Weather Underground: https://www.wunderground.com/us/ny/saratoga-springs UPDATE (10:30a): Heaviest rain appears to have missed Spa leaving FAST/FIRM.. SARATOGA POST-SCRATCHES SCR'S/CHG'S 1st: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Sandy'z Slew 3-1 4th Best Value: #8 Frisky Magician 10-1 8th Next Best: #2 Grand Sky 7-2 WON ($7.30) Exotics Use: #11 D' Eloquent 5-2 5th 2nd: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD) Unraced/lightly raced 3yo's here and some real talent nestled within.. ("FTS" = first time starter) Best Value: #3 Eight Town 5-1: Lynch; Full to CDN stakes win'r Essence Hit Man.. 7th Next Best: #4 Zap Zap Zap 5-2: Ex-Hushion now Pletcher; Exits hot 6/24 BEL set.. 2nd Exotics Use: #1e Godolphin entry 7-2: Albertrani first as 3yo; KMc FTS o/o MSW Afleeting Lady.. 3rd/9th Super Add: #2 Total Cooperation 6-1 8th 3rd: 14th Waya (G3), F&M-3+, 12f-IT (P3, DD) Hard read with nice group going the 3 turns on the inner turf with not much pace involved on paper. Despite that, Guilty Twelve may be a good price key, looking like a new horse as a mare this year and seemingly able to run into mopderate fractions. Capable journeyman Chris DeCarlo takes these opportunities seriously.. Best Value: #8 Guilty Twelve 5-1 7th Next Best: #1 Apple Betty 3-1 4th Exotics Use: #4 Suffused 7-5 5th Super Add: #5 Lottie 8-1 2nd 4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #10 Survey 6-1 8th Next Best: #6 Eclipsed Moon 5-1 6th Best Value: #4 Neepawa 10-1 3rd Exotics Use: #7 Irish Territory 12-1 7th 5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD) An absolute war. No easy tosses.. Most Likely: #5 Delta Prince 5-2 WON ($3.90) Best Value: #6 Toughest 'Ombre 15-1 4th Next Best: #2 Alphonsus 10-1 9th Exotics Use: #8 Strike Midnight 12-1 8th P5 Grid: 1: 2-6-8 (A), - (B), 1-3-11 (C) 2: 1-3-4 (A), 2-5-6 (B), 7-8 (C) 3: 1-8 (A), 4-5 (B), 2-7 (C) 4: 6-10 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C) 5: 5 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x2x1 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 P4 Grid: 2: 1-3-4 (A), 2-5-6 (B), 7-8 (C) 3: 1-8 (A), 4-5 (B), 2-7 (C) 4: 4-6-10 (A), 3-5-7 (B), - (C) 5: 5 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C) Simple (A+B): 6x4x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 3x2x3x1 = $18 ($9 for .50) 6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD) Some pedigrees worth noting here including Arrival, half to Bayern, Ceevee out of SW Bickersons, Thunder's Honor, a half to Ms. Locust Point and AE National Flag, a half to Bernina's Star & December Seven.. Most Likely: #9 Arrival 5-1 4th Next Best: #10 Mad Munnys 3-1 5th Best Value: #2 Ceevee 5-1 6th Exotics Use: #8 Slot 5-1 3rd 7th: 5th Lure-R, 4+, 8.5f-T (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD) Best Value: #2 Takeover Target 8-1 3rd Next Best: #1 Projected 9-5 2nd Exotics Use: #8 Ring Weekend 6-1 5th Super Add: #12 Macagone 10-1 9th 8th: 92nd Test (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD) As discussed with Nick Tammaro Friday, West Coast invaders look to be the power in this terrific edition of the exclusive G1 for 3yo filly sprinters. Stalking trip appears to be the go-to style and that seems to fit Faypien & American Gal's interests well. American Gal & Chalon have already made successful visits to NY, a notable plus. Turnback candidates include Faypien (Summertime Oaks win), Chanel's Legacy (Iowa Oaks 4th) and Tequilita (Kentucky Oaks 7th). Tough ticket-building exercise with virtually none an easy cross-out.. Most Likely: #8 Faypien 3-1 2nd Best Value: #5 Vertical Oak 8-1 5th Next Best: #2 Your Love 6-1 6th Exotics Use: #10 American Gal 5-2 WON ($6.30) 9th: 90th Whitney (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD) There are scenarios, especially those involving a wet track, where Gun Runner gets beaten. Tu Brutus, Keen Ice, Breaking Lucky and War Story have races in their PP's that put them in range of the favorite, but Gun Runner remains overwhelmingly likely.. Most Likely: #6 Gun Runner 4-5 WON ($3.20) Next Best: #5 Keen Ice 3-1 2nd Best Value: #4 Tu Brutus 8-1 6th Exotics Use: #1 War Story 6-1 4th P4 Grid: 6: 9-10 (A), 2-4-8 (B), - (C) 7: 1-2-8 (A), - (B), 5-7-12 (C) 8: 2-5-8-10 (A), 1-3-4-6 (B), 7-9 (C) 9: 6 (A), - (B), 1-4-5 (C) Simple (A+B): 5x3x8x1 = 120 x .50 = $60 All A's: 2x3x4x1 = $24 ($12 for .50) 10th: 14th De La Rose-R, F&M-4+, 1m-IT (DD) Most Likely: #7 On Leave 3-1 2nd Next Best: #10 Elysea's World 5-1 4th Best Value: #8 Bar of Gold 10-1 3rd Exotics Use: #1 Thundering Sky 15-1 WON ($28.60) 11th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f Really nice way to end a big day. Mo Town giving indications in the a.m. that he's coming back to his good self. Use Brerry at the bottom of your tris and supers.. Most Likely: #6 Mo Town 9-2 4th Next Best: #7 Neolithic 1-1 WON ($3.40) Best Value: #3 Realm 8-1 - Exotics Use: #8 Schivarelli 6-1 - Super Add: #2 Brerry 30-1 6th P5 Grid: 7: 1-2 (A), 8 (B), 5-7-12 (C) 8: 2-5-8-10 (A), - (B), 1-3-4-6 (C) 9: 6 (A), - (B), 1-2-4-5 (C) 10: 7-10 (A), 8 (B), - (C) 11: 6-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 2x4x1x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 P4 Grid: 8: 2-5-8-10 (A), - (B), 1-3-4-6 (C) 9: 6 (A), 5 (B), 1-2-4 (C) 10: 7-8-10 (A), - (B), 1-9 (C) 11: 6-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 All A's: 4x1x3x2 = $24 ($12 for .50) $0.50 Pick-4 (10/6/1/7,9) Paid $109.75 (A-A-C-A) Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 08-05-2017 at 07:07 PM. 
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#2
08-05-2017, 07:57 AM
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Any opinions on WV derby today? I think the chalk is beatable.
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#4
08-05-2017, 11:23 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
08-05-2017, 01:20 PM
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Quote:
MNR 8th: 48th West Virginia Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f Most Likely: #4 B Squared 9-2 8th Best Value: #7 Colonelsdarktemper 8-1 WON ($16.00) Next Best: #8 Lookin At Lee 3-1 3rd Exotics Use: #5 Impressive Edge 8-1 9th
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 08-05-2017 at 07:09 PM.
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Pb72vett winner
Linear Mode
