Keeneland General Discussion

[theguarantee]

I realize there are plenty of threads over the years regarding things to do in Lexington and such...wanted to start a new one with the Spring meet around the corner however. I’ll be on hand in what has quickly become a tradition. The historical threads are great and I always pull them up before the meets but some fresh/updated thoughts are always welcome.

What are some favorite betting angles or trainers to look out for?

Analyze It runs Friday and Rushing Fall will run Sunday. Analyze It drew the 12 post with Pletcher’s horse drawing the rail. Talk about a Chad Brown potential tour de force.

The Blue Grass has not been a very productive Derby prep in recent history but I do personally figure that will shortly change. Whether it doesn’t this year remains to be seen....I haven’t seen the workout reports yet on Good Magic but he certainly feels like a tough call at this point. What do you make of him?

[fantini33]

Anything that Julien Leparoux rides is live.

Don't waste to much time trying to beat the Wesley Ward babies.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Anything that Julien Leparoux rides is live.

Don't waste to much time trying to beat the Wesley Ward babies.

Unless there is a Pletcher baby.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

The Blue Grass has not been a very productive Derby prep in recent history but I do personally figure that will shortly change. Whether it doesn’t this year remains to be seen....I haven’t seen the workout reports yet on Good Magic but he certainly feels like a tough call at this point. What do you make of him?

It's hard nowadays to get a good read on horses heading into the Derby, as most only start twice at the most beforehand rather than four or even five times. The big question with Good Magic is: has he improved from age 2 to 3?

The Fountain of Youth was run at a modest early pace. Good Magic broke sharply, as he did in the BC, and then settled nicely behind the first flight. He was under a good hold throughout the backstretch and responded when asked for a bid towards the leaders at the 3/8 pole. Given the layoff and the relatively slow pace, its not a shock that Good Magic failed to level up with Promises Fulfilled (or Strike Power who went all in at the 1/4 pole) after that one controlled the pace unimpeded. Good Magic switched leads and followed those two willingly to the wire. That Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power were thoroughly toasted in the Florida Derby in a absurd speed duel should not sour the form displayed by Good Magic in the FOY.

When there is a sharper, contested pace in front of him (BC Juvenile), we see his main strength: having enough pace to get by tiring frontrunners at the head of the lane and getting the jump on the closers.

Depending on the pace, another even effort at Keeneland shouldn't put one off the horse as more than likely he'll get his ideal pace at Churchill. Though it has not been the case in the immediate past, plenty of horses in the last 2 decades have won the Derby without winning their final or even any of their prep races (Real Quiet, Funny Cide, Jokemo, Mine That Bird, Super Saver). Trainer Chad Brown took down the Preakness last year with a similar pattern from Cloud Computing.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Unless there is a Pletcher baby.

That wouldn't be a winning strategy

4.5 Fr

Trainer	         Year  Wins
Ward Wesley A.	  2017	4
Hancock John A.	  2017	3
McPeek Kenneth G. 2017	2
Asmussen Steven M.2017	2
Pletcher Todd A.  2017	1

Ward Wesley A.	  2016	5
Maker Michael J.  2016	1
Colebrook Ben	  2016	1
Harty Eoin G.	  2016	1
Zanelli, Jr.Dante 2016	1
Hancock John A.	  2016	1

Ward Wesley A.	  2015	3
Castaneda Marco A.2015	1
Hancock John A.	  2015	1
Maker Michael J.  2015	1
Pletcher Todd A.  2015	1

[tywizard]

If you're not a regular user of Formulator, the Keeneland meet is a good time to purchase monthly/10 card package (use public handicapper discount unless Steve has one to offer).

To your point, this meet has some unique trainer angles so filter for KEE specific stats.

I'm a believer in horse for course angles at KEE - especially on the turf. When looking at dirt races and trainer angles remember that KEE was poly until the Fall 2014 meet.

I read Jeremy Plonk's daily analysis. Not for picks but some historical context and emerging trends on how runners from various circuits are performing at the current meet.

You can access the historical handicapping database here

Pay attention to first crop sires - A win at KEE goes a long way in building steam for young stallions.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Anything that Julien Leparoux rides is live.

Don't waste to much time trying to beat the Wesley Ward babies.

Casse/lepraroux even deadlier

[wild barry]

I give an extra look to anything R. Arnold runs

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by jms62

That wouldn't be a winning strategy

4.5 Fr

Trainer	         Year  Wins
Ward Wesley A.	  2017	4
Hancock John A.	  2017	3
McPeek Kenneth G. 2017	2
Asmussen Steven M.2017	2
Pletcher Todd A.  2017	1

Ward Wesley A.	  2016	5
Maker Michael J.  2016	1
Colebrook Ben	  2016	1
Harty Eoin G.	  2016	1
Zanelli, Jr.Dante 2016	1
Hancock John A.	  2016	1

Ward Wesley A.	  2015	3
Castaneda Marco A.2015	1
Hancock John A.	  2015	1
Maker Michael J.  2015	1
Pletcher Todd A.  2015	1

I don't recall any losing was he 1 for 1?

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I don't recall any losing was he 1 for 1?

Past 5 Years - 3 starters - Two wins and a third. $2.46ROI

All PT Favorite. Salmanazar and Outwork are the winners. Orbolution ran 3rd.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Casse/lepraroux even deadlier

Includes Fall Meet and Breeders Cup

Year	Surface      	Trainer               Wins

2017	Fast Dirt	Casse Mark E.		4
2017	Fast Dirt	Colebrook Ben		2
2017	Fast Dirt	Maker Michael J.	2
2017	Fast Dirt	Bonde Jeff		1
2017	Fast Dirt	Boyce Michele		1
2017	Fast Dirt	Cox Brad H.		1
2017	Fast Dirt	Kenneally Eddie		1
2017	Fast Dirt	LoPresti Charles	1
2017	Fast Dirt	Lynch Brian A.		1
2017	Fast Dirt	O'Neill Doug F.		1
2017	Fast Dirt	Walsh Brendan P.	1

2017	Turf		Maker Michael J.	4
2017	Turf		Casse Mark E.		1
2017	Turf		Clement Christophe	1
2017	Turf		Kenneally Eddie		1
2017	Turf		Wilkes Ian R.		1

2017	Wet Dirt	Maker Michael J.	2
2017	Wet Dirt	Casse Mark E.		1

2016	Fast Dirt	Casse Mark E.		7
2016	Fast Dirt	LoPresti Charles	2
2016	Fast Dirt	Lynch Brian A.		2
2016	Fast Dirt	Maker Michael J.	2
2016	Fast Dirt	McPeek Kenneth G.	2
2016	Fast Dirt	Brown Chad C.		1
2016	Fast Dirt	Huffman Patrick		1
2016	Fast Dirt	Kordenbrock Matt	1

2016	Turf		Casse Mark E.		4
2016	Turf		Maker Michael J.	4
2016	Turf		Delacour Arnaud		2
2016	Turf		Brown Chad C.		1
2016	Turf		Clement Christophe	1
2016	Turf		Lynch Brian A.		1
2016	Turf		Matz Michael R.		1
2016	Turf		Motion H. Graham	1
2016	Turf		Proctor Thomas F.	1

2016	Wet Dirt	Wilkes Ian R.		1

2015	Fast Dirt	McPeek Kenneth G.	5
2015	Fast Dirt	Casse Mark E.		1
2015	Fast Dirt	Delacour Arnaud		1
2015	Fast Dirt	Kordenbrock Matt	1
2015	Fast Dirt	Maker Michael J.	1
2015	Fast Dirt	McLaughlin Kiaran P.	1
2015	Fast Dirt	Moquett Ron		1
2015	Fast Dirt	Mott William I.		1
2015	Fast Dirt	Pletcher Todd A.	1
2015	Fast Dirt	Vance David R.		1
2015	Fast Dirt	Wolfson Martin D.	1

2015	Turf		Casse Mark E.		5
2015	Turf		Attfield Roger L.	1
2015	Turf		Block Chris M.		1
2015	Turf		Brown Chad C.		1
2015	Turf		Delacour Arnaud		1
2015	Turf		Maker Michael J.	1
2015	Turf		Pletcher Todd A.	1

2015	Wet Dirt	Kenneally Eddie		1
2015	Wet Dirt	Maker Michael J.	1
2015	Wet Dirt	McPeek Kenneth G.	1
2015	Wet Dirt	Peitz Daniel C.		1

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Casse/lepraroux even deadlier

This is the type of thing worth refining.

Past 5 Years Casse/Lep - 79 Starts 24 Wins (30%) $2.37ROI

Dirt 41 Starts 13 Wins (32%) $2.59ROI

Turf 35 Starts 10 Wins (29%) $2.10ROI

2YO All Surfaces 25 Starts 11 Wins (44%) $3.62ROI

3YO+ All Surfaces 54 Starts 13 Wins (24%) $1.79ROI

Bet to 5-1 or lower - 47 Starts 20 wins (43%) $2.60ROI

FTS 9 Starts 3 wins (33%) $3.11ROI

MSW Races 27 Starts 12 win (44%) $3.60ROI

Graded Stakes 19 Starts 8 Wins (42%) $3.54ROI

2YO MSW < 5-1 - 11 Starts 6 Wins (55%) $2.67ROI


So, yes it's been a pretty good combination.

Must include 2YO Maidens, especially if they take some money.

Their Turf horses are *slightly* overbet and clearly they're not as dangerous with older horses (relatively speaking).

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Past 5 Years - 3 starters - Two wins and a third. $2.46ROI

All PT Favorite. Salmanazar and Outwork are the winners. Orbolution ran 3rd.

Thanks brother

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by wild barry

I give an extra look to anything R. Arnold runs

good idea

[theguarantee]

Good insights. Hopefully the weather doesn’t derail some great cards...

[Alabama Stakes]

I was liking the Ward guys in the first, but thought the 3rd race was the tougher half of the split and was looking at the 6&7 hoss. It should be interesting to see how the 2 No Nay Never Irish breds run in the sires first 2 starts.

2nd race looks like anyone can win.



The 6th race has no speed. I wonder if Robby will send the 9 hoss to the lead, or if the euro guy one hoss adding blinkers and lasix might try to go to the lead as he did early in his career.

[tanner12oz]

Ryan Moore isn't showing up for vacation

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Ryan Moore isn't showing up for vacation

So your angle on Marconi is he is live since Coolmore is sending him over to ride?

If he wins, he'll need a new jock for the Derby...Seems like they might want to get a Jockey to commit for the Bluegrass and Derby, no?

Hopefully Moore listens to Kurt Becker as he reminds us multiple times about the short stretch of Keeneland. Otherwise he'll be in a hopeless position around the stretch.